Fair point, but is 24ish teams a feasible proposition in the long run? That's a lot of players, coaching talent, sponsors & fans to find.
Admittedly we won't hit that issue for another 10 years at least, as this expansion phase (teams 18-20) will be rolled-out sometime between 2027 & 2032.. but it's a question that needs to be pondered - exactly what is the optimal size - or MAXIMUM feasible size - of the NRL in the long term?
Do we need a period of "bedding in" 20 teams, and hoping that market forces spur a relocation or two from current Sydney teams (as was projected in the 1990s).. or do we start groundwork for teams 21 & 22 regardless?
Good questions
As far as players go, we as a game have recently implemented proper pipelines in NZ (warriors pathways), Melbourne and PNG. Add Perth and better academy setups in the Pacific and you have access to the talent we need.
Coaching is the real problem in today's game I think, not necessarily talent. I think the NRL could quickly change this if they got serious about it.
Sponsor and fans I'm not too concerned about because of the options I laid out, Perth, Adelaide, Wellington and Fiji all are new markets bringing new NRL fans (PNG to a lesser extent because they are already consuming the game in large numbers).
I would only bring Melbourne 2 in when the Storm are consistently selling out AAMI park and I would look to start building the fan base of a second team. Sure, they'll start averaging around 8k a season but you've just got to build them up slowly. The advantage a second Melbourne team would have (when the time is right), is that the Storm have done the hard yards breaking into the sporting psyche in down there (Storm are the most popular non-AFL team now), they have access to Victorian talent that wasn't available when the Storm started, they have access to a quality Stadium that wasn't available when the Storm started and they will have at least two marquee games to help support their crowd average in the rough first decade while they are trying to carve out their own fanbase; storm and warriors. It will be as tough as GWS is finding things in Western Sydney but will be a long-term project.
Bedding in is only required for markets where you are going back for a second and third dip (i.e. Ipswich and Melbourne 2) and potentially in NZ where you'd wait a while for Christchurch to gain traction in the national sporting landscape before introducing Wellington.
I'd do the whole thing over a period of 20 or 30 years adding a couple of teams each 5 years inline with the broadcast deal and as the NRL have already indicated, we'll eventually go to conferences to maximise rivalry matchups etc. The broadcast deal will be the key to it all though, provided we can keep getting increases from Aus and NZ TV, we will be able to keep growing the comp. 24 is probably a good place to pause though because you are then starting to run out of feasable markets and risk doing an AFL and getting desperate with things like Tassie and Darwin which don't really offer any commercial viability, let alone return.
