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NRL's growth mindset points to 18th team. And it ain't Perth.

xe_kilroy

Juniors
Messages
41
It's a difficult process when you have a city-based comp and try to expand it nationally. Many long-time clubs either have to merge, fold, or relocate out of the city, even state.

I'd always thought it would have been nicer to keep the ARL clubs at the NSWRL level, and create say 12 new clubs based around Australia. With say four Sydney teams, each one having two feeder NSWRL clubs funding it and deriving its fanbase -- eg, Southern Sydney Whatevers (funded by StG and Cronulla in the NSWRL). And so on.

But where we are now, and this may upset people, but due to the way the state comp expanded to a national comp, a tough way forward has to be the way.

Thinking the NRL has to pinpoint regions that ought to have a team, and push clubs to relocate there, whilst bringing in new clubs for other regions.

Example League....
Perth Sharks (cronulla)
Melbourne Storm
StG-Ill Dragons (based entitely in Wollongong)
Macarthur Tigers (wests tigers to Campbelltown fulltime)
Gosford Bears (norths were pushed to relocate to gosford to remain in comp and were cheated out of a spot in the nrl)
Brisbane Broncos
Redcliffe Dolphins
Ipswich Jets
Newcastle Knights
Manly Sea Eagles
Parramatta Eels
Penrith Panthers
Souths Rabbitohs
Sydney Roosters
West Sydney Bulldogs (liverpool?)
Nth Qld Cowboys
Gold Coast Titans
Canberra Raiders
Aukland Warriors
Christchurch Whatevers

An issue would be too many western and inner-western sydney teams in penrith, parra, canterbury.

Maybe bulldogs to Adelaide in the future.

Expansion in Qld...ought to be north of Brisbane and west of Brisbane (why redcliffe and ipswich) so as to not impinge on GCs ability to survive.

20 teams, 2 conferences.

The game right now might not be able to handle this, not enough money, etc, and fan angst with club dispersion. But youd have to ensure those clubs are given a NSWRL club to continue their heritage and be feeder clubs for the national version of them.
 

Pippen94

Juniors
Messages
775
It's a difficult process when you have a city-based comp and try to expand it nationally. Many long-time clubs either have to merge, fold, or relocate out of the city, even state.

I'd always thought it would have been nicer to keep the ARL clubs at the NSWRL level, and create say 12 new clubs based around Australia. With say four Sydney teams, each one having two feeder NSWRL clubs funding it and deriving its fanbase -- eg, Southern Sydney Whatevers (funded by StG and Cronulla in the NSWRL). And so on.

But where we are now, and this may upset people, but due to the way the state comp expanded to a national comp, a tough way forward has to be the way.

Thinking the NRL has to pinpoint regions that ought to have a team, and push clubs to relocate there, whilst bringing in new clubs for other regions.

Example League....
Perth Sharks (cronulla)
Melbourne Storm
StG-Ill Dragons (based entitely in Wollongong)
Macarthur Tigers (wests tigers to Campbelltown fulltime)
Gosford Bears (norths were pushed to relocate to gosford to remain in comp and were cheated out of a spot in the nrl)
Brisbane Broncos
Redcliffe Dolphins
Ipswich Jets
Newcastle Knights
Manly Sea Eagles
Parramatta Eels
Penrith Panthers
Souths Rabbitohs
Sydney Roosters
West Sydney Bulldogs (liverpool?)
Nth Qld Cowboys
Gold Coast Titans
Canberra Raiders
Aukland Warriors
Christchurch Whatevers

An issue would be too many western and inner-western sydney teams in penrith, parra, canterbury.

Maybe bulldogs to Adelaide in the future.

Expansion in Qld...ought to be north of Brisbane and west of Brisbane (why redcliffe and ipswich) so as to not impinge on GCs ability to survive.

20 teams, 2 conferences.

The game right now might not be able to handle this, not enough money, etc, and fan angst with club dispersion. But youd have to ensure those clubs are given a NSWRL club to continue their heritage and be feeder clubs for the national version of them.

Did you see the ratings this year?! Do you think game would be as successful if Christchurch was playing Gosford or Adelaide?!
 

xe_kilroy

Juniors
Messages
41
Did you see the ratings this year?! Do you think game would be as successful if Christchurch was playing Gosford or Adelaide?!
I know it's problematic, not easy. To be a national comp tho, the league has to put clubs in such regions and prop them up for x years until eventually they root in the ground. Like the AFL did with Brisbane and Swans.
 
Messages
3,750
Whilst we procrastinate afl continues to put its chess pieces in place for the decades to come.

The AFL has nowhere left to go. Tasmania and Darwin are even more financially disastrous than Gold Coast or Western Sydney... Canberra is not much better an option. If the NRL were considering Darwin we'd be saying the same thing.
 

Jamberoo

Juniors
Messages
723
Whilst we procrastinate afl continues to put its chess pieces in place for the decades to come.

Bah! This supposed bid has nothing to do with the AFL, just a couple of businessmen. They are not putting any pieces in place aside from making a decisions on Tasmania next year. An AFL team in NT is not on the radar of the AFL or the NRL. It is not economically viable (Darwin’s population is half of Woolongong or Geelong) and the Darwin climate is not suitable for professional football - you couldn’t play matches in wet season (March/April). For the AFL it would be at least fourth in line behind Tasmania (50/50), Canberra and WA3, for the NRL even further behind.
 

Perth Red

Immortal
Messages
44,455
It’s interesting how they are using the social community benefit angle to try and create a viable funding model by getting govt funding to underwrite a club. In many ways same as hunters did to get govt funding To stay in qlnd cup. Maybe something to look at for viability of a png nrl team one day?

for the record it will likely be brisbane 2 and Perth 3 next time afl expands in 15 or so years.
 
Messages
3,750
It’s interesting how they are using the social community benefit angle to try and create a viable funding model by getting govt funding to underwrite a club. In many ways same as hunters did to get govt funding To stay in qlnd cup. Maybe something to look at for viability of a png nrl team one day?

for the record it will likely be brisbane 2 and Perth 3 next time afl expands in 15 or so years.
Brisbane 2 would be a disaster for the AFL. The Lions only draw decent crowds when they are winning. When they aren't they average sub-20k. If there is a cross-town rival this splits the AFL fan base even further.
 

Perth Red

Immortal
Messages
44,455
Brisbane 2 would be a disaster for the AFL. The Lions only draw decent crowds when they are winning. When they aren't they average sub-20k. If there is a cross-town rival this splits the AFL fan base even further.
As they've shown with GWS they understand strategic positioning for the long haul. In 15 years Brisbane's population will be significantly higher with a lot more immigrants from AFL states. With Lions positioning themselves South and West and I can see a Brisbane2 targeting the North being in their mindset. That's the difference, NRL look to today, AFL look to 20 years time. Gabba will be redeveloped for the Olympics, Lions will be set up in their new HQ and as said there isnt many options for AFL to expand their comp further other than Brisbane and Perth. Perth I can see them targeting Northern suburbs for a new clubs identity. Eagles still have a massive membership wait list that will only keep growing, Dockers cover South of river. Makes sense for Perth3 to target North when our population reaches 3mill plus.

We might have Brisbane2 in NRL by then and probably still pondering if to bring back the Bears lol.
 
Messages
3,750
As they've shown with GWS they understand strategic positioning for the long haul. In 15 years Brisbane's population will be significantly higher with a lot more immigrants from AFL states. With Lions positioning themselves South and West and I can see a Brisbane2 targeting the North being in their mindset. That's the difference, NRL look to today, AFL look to 20 years time. Gabba will be redeveloped for the Olympics, Lions will be set up in their new HQ and as said there isnt many options for AFL to expand their comp further other than Brisbane and Perth. Perth I can see them targeting Northern suburbs for a new clubs identity. Eagles still have a massive membership wait list that will only keep growing, Dockers cover South of river. Makes sense for Perth3 to target North when our population reaches 3mill plus.

We might have Brisbane2 in NRL by then and probably still pondering if to bring back the Bears lol.
I think Perth 3 makes a lot of sense for them but Brisbane 2 will be an absolute shit show. There is a small but passionate AFL community here which is the bulk of the people attending Lions games. The Suns and Giants are an absolute flop and the lions only a couple of seasons ago were really struggling for attendances.

I think you are giving the AFL way too much credit re strategy. They HAVE to invest heavily in NSW and QLD because RL owns it and that is half the population. They have no option... We don't have to chase their turf (other than Melbourne) anywhere near as hard. We have most of the biggest markets in the country covered... yes most of those are in NSW and QLD. We also have NZ's largest city covered. They HAVE to waste money on rusted on RL states.

As is the NRL's current plan we will probably have Brisbane 2 by 2023 followed most likely by NZ2. Our strategy isn't a bad one to be honest. Go where the fans and players are to get the biggest return on investment. I don't think anyone at NRLHQ has every seriously pondered bringing the bears back.

I would however say that we need to do more to sure up our heartlands and as you know I'm a big supporter of Perth in our comp.
 

Jamberoo

Juniors
Messages
723
As they've shown with GWS they understand strategic positioning for the long haul. In 15 years Brisbane's population will be significantly higher with a lot more immigrants from AFL states. With Lions positioning themselves South and West and I can see a Brisbane2 targeting the North being in their mindset. That's the difference, NRL look to today, AFL look to 20 years time. Gabba will be redeveloped for the Olympics, Lions will be set up in their new HQ and as said there isnt many options for AFL to expand their comp further other than Brisbane and Perth. Perth I can see them targeting Northern suburbs for a new clubs identity. Eagles still have a massive membership wait list that will only keep growing, Dockers cover South of river. Makes sense for Perth3 to target North when our population reaches 3mill plus.

We might have Brisbane2 in NRL by then and probably still pondering if to bring back the Bears lol.
The only way the AFL will have Brisbane 2 is if they move the Gold Coast Suns there. It is simply not on the radar at all - you have made that up. I listen to/read every article/podcast on the expansion/structure of all four football codes in Australia and not once has anyone mentioned Bris 2 for the AFL. If the Giants ever stand on their own two feet in Sydney, then Canberra might be a chance for a 20th team in 10 - 15 years, otherwise the AFL will stick with 19 teams if Tasmania comes in around 2026 (at least 50/50 to happen).

While I've got you PR - are the massive crowds at AFL finals indicative of a willingness of Perth people to embrace various sports, or simply indicative of how huge AFL is there? Has there been any recent talk in local media about a future NRL club 3rd AFL club?
 

Perth Red

Immortal
Messages
44,455
The only way the AFL will have Brisbane 2 is if they move the Gold Coast Suns there. It is simply not on the radar at all - you have made that up. I listen to/read every article/podcast on the expansion/structure of all four football codes in Australia and not once has anyone mentioned Bris 2 for the AFL. If the Giants ever stand on their own two feet in Sydney, then Canberra might be a chance for a 20th team in 10 - 15 years, otherwise the AFL will stick with 19 teams if Tasmania comes in around 2026 (at least 50/50 to happen).

While I've got you PR - are the massive crowds at AFL finals indicative of a willingness of Perth people to embrace various sports, or simply indicative of how huge AFL is there? Has there been any recent talk in local media about a future NRL club 3rd AFL club?
Reality is IF AFL decide its financially and strategically in their interests to expand to 20 clubs only Brisbane and Perth are viable options. Tassie is already AFL and too small to be sustainable, even more so Darwin, and Canberra is a remote possibility but likely too small as well to generate enough revenue and Tv viewers to be valuable. They really only have Brisbane and Perth they could expand into in terms of valuable markets. Biggest problem AFL has is its bloody expensive to run a club. You need around $50-60mill plus a year in revenue compared to $25-30mill for an NRL club. Even with massive revenue I doubt AFL will be keen to be throwing another $50mill plus a year at two new struggling clubs.
Streaming could be a game changer in terms of number of clubs in top competitions in decades to come. There is a lot more flexibility in game coverage with streaming than FTA or traditional PTV.

re your last question mostly the latter but Perth has shown it will turn out for big sports events including NRL.
The day in 2013 the WA media sat at NIB and listened to Grant tell us that there will be no Perth NRL team and to stop wasting our time was pretty much the day the WA media stopped promoting the idea of NRL expansion. Vlandys attitude just doubled down on the perception that NRL is an East coast competition with no ambition to be national and include Perth.
There's been occasional media pieces about a third Perth AFL club in future years. eg https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl...third-afl-team-out-of-wa-20160317-gnlc8v.html
 

Jamberoo

Juniors
Messages
723
Reality is IF AFL decide its financially and strategically in their interests to expand to 20 clubs only Brisbane and Perth are viable options. Tassie is already AFL and too small to be sustainable, even more so Darwin, and Canberra is a remote possibility but likely too small as well to generate enough revenue and Tv viewers to be valuable. They really only have Brisbane and Perth they could expand into in terms of valuable markets. Biggest problem AFL has is its bloody expensive to run a club. You need around $50-60mill plus a year in revenue compared to $25-30mill for an NRL club. Even with massive revenue I doubt AFL will be keen to be throwing another $50mill plus a year at two new struggling clubs.
Streaming could be a game changer in terms of number of clubs in top competitions in decades to come. There is a lot more flexibility in game coverage with streaming than FTA or traditional PTV.

re your last question mostly the latter but Perth has shown it will turn out for big sports events including NRL.
The day in 2013 the WA media sat at NIB and listened to Grant tell us that there will be no Perth NRL team and to stop wasting our time was pretty much the day the WA media stopped promoting the idea of NRL expansion. Vlandys attitude just doubled down on the perception that NRL is an East coast competition with no ambition to be national and include Perth.
There's been occasional media pieces about a third Perth AFL club in future years. eg https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl...third-afl-team-out-of-wa-20160317-gnlc8v.html
The AFL commissioned report shows that Tassie is financially viable. It is now more than 50/50 to happen. The AFL won't be giving them anywhere near $50m, just the normal annual distribution that each club gets. Like NRL Bris 2 it will pay for itself It case for inclusion is almost identical to that of NRL Bris 2 - safe expansion, immediate fanbase, location deserving of a team based on history and players produced, and the thinking that a new local team will stop a decline in participation, keeping out any 'invaders' (AFL in SEQ, Basketball in Tas).
 
Messages
8,480
The AFL commissioned report shows that Tassie is financially viable. It is now more than 50/50 to happen. The AFL won't be giving them anywhere near $50m, just the normal annual distribution that each club gets. Like NRL Bris 2 it will pay for itself It case for inclusion is almost identical to that of NRL Bris 2 - safe expansion, immediate fanbase, location deserving of a team based on history and players produced, and the thinking that a new local team will stop a decline in participation, keeping out any 'invaders' (AFL in SEQ, Basketball in Tas).

Would be madness for them not to go to Tassie next IMO. They've got a ready-made fan base, and it's a relative stones-throw from Melbourne (with 9 or so clubs?) compared to anywhere else they could go, eg Bris2 and especially Darwin, so travel costs are far less for the majorit of flights to/from etc.

Methinks NRL Brisbane2 is targetted, amongst other things, to try and prevent AFL Brisbane2 (whether it's in place of, or in addition to the Suns). It is the next logical step in bringing a new team to the NRL for mine - but more consolidation than expansion.
 

Santino Patane

Juniors
Messages
135
Would be madness for them not to go to Tassie next IMO. They've got a ready-made fan base, and it's a relative stones-throw from Melbourne (with 9 or so clubs?) compared to anywhere else they could go, eg Bris2 and especially Darwin, so travel costs are far less for the majorit of flights to/from etc.

Methinks NRL Brisbane2 is targetted, amongst other things, to try and prevent AFL Brisbane2 (whether it's in place of, or in addition to the Suns). It is the next logical step in bringing a new team to the NRL for mine - but more consolidation than expansion.
I know this is a bit off topic, but are there any real thoughts to the Suns being relocated/folded? Or is it just keyboard warriors making shit up??
 
Messages
8,480
I know this is a bit off topic, but are there any real thoughts to the Suns being relocated/folded? Or is it just keyboard warriors making shit up??
Probably just speculation coz they aren’t that flash.

Personally I see them and the Titans as part of the biggest Mexican standoff in sport. Can’t see either of them moving coz their governing body will lose face if they back out (first..).
 
Messages
1
The AFL will likely have to expand to 22 teams in the future with Tasmania coming in the next few years along with Darwin in the late 2020s then Canberra and a New Zealand team in the 2030s or 40s. I think the NRL will put Redcliffe in 2023, then the West Coast Pirates in at least 2027, after that New Zealand 2 for the NRL in 2033 along with an Adelaide team.
 

Perth Red

Immortal
Messages
44,455
The AFL commissioned report shows that Tassie is financially viable. It is now more than 50/50 to happen. The AFL won't be giving them anywhere near $50m, just the normal annual distribution that each club gets. Like NRL Bris 2 it will pay for itself It case for inclusion is almost identical to that of NRL Bris 2 - safe expansion, immediate fanbase, location deserving of a team based on history and players produced, and the thinking that a new local team will stop a decline in participation, keeping out any 'invaders' (AFL in SEQ, Basketball in Tas).
Only because the tassie govt was willing to tip $10mill a year in. Change of govt and theyre in trouble. There is no normal distribution in afl, every club varies depending on their needs. 12k victorians moved to brisbane last year.

what the afl review actually said
  • The case can be made for a 19th Licence but re-location of an existing team if a club is prepared to take that path, or a joint venture between Tasmanian stakeholders and a Victorian team that secures strong support in two markets from the outset, would arguably produce a more sustainable outcome and therefore should be considered before a 19th licence.
 

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