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It's tough to wrestle with stats: NRL's top teams have balance just right
April 23, 2012
Tough start to the season ... Wayne Bennett. Photo: Darren Pateman
Super coach Wayne Bennett is in unfamiliar territory with the Knights, the legendary premiership winner having one of his worst starts to a season in his 26 years in the top grade.
Newcastle are currently 10th, with three wins and four losses. Bennett's teams have been running first or second after seven rounds for most of his career, with the Broncos' 14th place in 1999 and 13th place in 2007 the rare exceptions.
When he moved to the Dragons for the 2009 season, he inherited a strong defence and Jamie Soward's long kicking game, allowing the Dragons to be third after seven rounds with five wins. St George Illawarra improved to first in April the next year when the club won the premiership. The Dragons were running second the same time last year and are now sixth, supporting the argument a change of coach makes a difference.
But the Knights were in a better position last year without Bennett, running seventh with one more win.
Bennett had Darren Lockyer and a big pack for most of his time in Brisbane, further support for the old argument that playing talent is more important than the coach.
The Warriors, with a change of coach, are ninth, the same position they found themselves in last year. The Panthers, with the Warriors' old coach, are 14th, the same as last year, with an identical record of two wins and five losses.
Early-season statistics are misleading because the opposition is different - some clubs have played more home games, while others have travelled long distances with short weeks.
What we can be certain about is that the clubs that whinge are down the ladder. They have coaches who depend on piggy-back penalties for points, breaks in play to rest their players and artificially fast play-the-balls for their team.
The media campaign against wrestling, including photographs of Storm players, ignores the fact Melbourne are running first because they are scoring more points than any other club.
The so-called inventors of wrestling are also scoring more after seven rounds than in any past seasons. The Storm have scored 210 points, 48 more than Bennett's Dragons in 2010. Asked why his team is undefeated, Melbourne coach Craig Bellamy said simply: ''We are attacking better.''
In fact, according to statistics from Sportsdata, the Storm have the third slowest play-the-balls of any NRL club, bettering only the Cowboys and Broncos, who are running second and third respectively in terms of points scored.
If these clubs are holding down the tackled player to slow up the play-the-ball, the opposition must be doing it to them!
These early season stats do tend to undermine another myth - that fast play-the-balls enhance attack.
When the Super League season started in 1997, Bennett conned the other coaches into fast play-the-balls, arguing that wrestling techniques undermined attack and bored the crowd.
So referees instructed the defenders to move quickly away from the tackled player and stood back about 12 metres in defence.
And what happened?
The Broncos' monster pack and smart dummy halves travelled the entire length of the field in the six tackles, scoring tries through turnstile defence.
The Storm are scoring tries, despite having the third slowest play-the-balls, because they have an attack willing to risk more within a structure. It's not ad lib, but it's more daring within a rehearsed routine.
You think Billy Slater's tries are freakish? Go to Storm training and you will see Cooper Cronk, Cameron Smith and Slater work the same attacking plays until they can do it with their eyes closed.
The Sharks have also climbed higher up the ladder without any grapplers, chokers or chicken wings. They are running third but are No.1 for metres gained, offloads and tackle breaks - all indices of attack.
Second-placed Brisbane have also improved their attack, being No.2 in these categories, as well as No.2 in line breaks. The Storm are No.1 in line breaks and, typically, make the least errors of any club.
Bennett's stunted attack can't be blamed exclusively on wrestling because the Knights are down in all indices of attack - 13th in points scored, 14th in line breaks, and 15th in both offloads and tackle breaks.
The NRL brought a second referee in to stop wrestling. Technically, with a referee standing at the ruck shouting ''move'', this should have led to faster play-the-balls.
But the average number of play-the-balls per 80-minute game has been stable for a decade - 139 in 2003 and 136 today.
Referees and the top teams have the balance between attack and defence just right.
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/rugby-league/...-just-right-20120422-1xf63.html#ixzz1soy1A65O
April 23, 2012
Super coach Wayne Bennett is in unfamiliar territory with the Knights, the legendary premiership winner having one of his worst starts to a season in his 26 years in the top grade.
Newcastle are currently 10th, with three wins and four losses. Bennett's teams have been running first or second after seven rounds for most of his career, with the Broncos' 14th place in 1999 and 13th place in 2007 the rare exceptions.
When he moved to the Dragons for the 2009 season, he inherited a strong defence and Jamie Soward's long kicking game, allowing the Dragons to be third after seven rounds with five wins. St George Illawarra improved to first in April the next year when the club won the premiership. The Dragons were running second the same time last year and are now sixth, supporting the argument a change of coach makes a difference.
But the Knights were in a better position last year without Bennett, running seventh with one more win.
Bennett had Darren Lockyer and a big pack for most of his time in Brisbane, further support for the old argument that playing talent is more important than the coach.
The Warriors, with a change of coach, are ninth, the same position they found themselves in last year. The Panthers, with the Warriors' old coach, are 14th, the same as last year, with an identical record of two wins and five losses.
Early-season statistics are misleading because the opposition is different - some clubs have played more home games, while others have travelled long distances with short weeks.
What we can be certain about is that the clubs that whinge are down the ladder. They have coaches who depend on piggy-back penalties for points, breaks in play to rest their players and artificially fast play-the-balls for their team.
The media campaign against wrestling, including photographs of Storm players, ignores the fact Melbourne are running first because they are scoring more points than any other club.
The so-called inventors of wrestling are also scoring more after seven rounds than in any past seasons. The Storm have scored 210 points, 48 more than Bennett's Dragons in 2010. Asked why his team is undefeated, Melbourne coach Craig Bellamy said simply: ''We are attacking better.''
In fact, according to statistics from Sportsdata, the Storm have the third slowest play-the-balls of any NRL club, bettering only the Cowboys and Broncos, who are running second and third respectively in terms of points scored.
If these clubs are holding down the tackled player to slow up the play-the-ball, the opposition must be doing it to them!
These early season stats do tend to undermine another myth - that fast play-the-balls enhance attack.
When the Super League season started in 1997, Bennett conned the other coaches into fast play-the-balls, arguing that wrestling techniques undermined attack and bored the crowd.
So referees instructed the defenders to move quickly away from the tackled player and stood back about 12 metres in defence.
And what happened?
The Broncos' monster pack and smart dummy halves travelled the entire length of the field in the six tackles, scoring tries through turnstile defence.
The Storm are scoring tries, despite having the third slowest play-the-balls, because they have an attack willing to risk more within a structure. It's not ad lib, but it's more daring within a rehearsed routine.
You think Billy Slater's tries are freakish? Go to Storm training and you will see Cooper Cronk, Cameron Smith and Slater work the same attacking plays until they can do it with their eyes closed.
The Sharks have also climbed higher up the ladder without any grapplers, chokers or chicken wings. They are running third but are No.1 for metres gained, offloads and tackle breaks - all indices of attack.
Second-placed Brisbane have also improved their attack, being No.2 in these categories, as well as No.2 in line breaks. The Storm are No.1 in line breaks and, typically, make the least errors of any club.
Bennett's stunted attack can't be blamed exclusively on wrestling because the Knights are down in all indices of attack - 13th in points scored, 14th in line breaks, and 15th in both offloads and tackle breaks.
The NRL brought a second referee in to stop wrestling. Technically, with a referee standing at the ruck shouting ''move'', this should have led to faster play-the-balls.
But the average number of play-the-balls per 80-minute game has been stable for a decade - 139 in 2003 and 136 today.
Referees and the top teams have the balance between attack and defence just right.
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/rugby-league/...-just-right-20120422-1xf63.html#ixzz1soy1A65O
