OFFSEASON TASK: World Club Top 20

[Broncodroid]

OFFSEASON TASK: World Club Top 20

The forum is a little "down" due to all Rugby League activity over until season 2005. I have an 'Offseason task" that I invite all members to partake in. If you do not wish to help, move on as this thread is not for you. I do not want this thread to turn into a "flame war" about rival clubs.

Objection: To come up with a fair and reasonable formula that allows us to weekly rank the World Club Top 20 from the NRL and Super League competition.

Dead line: Before a whistle is blown in the either competition.

Your time starts now :!:

 

[RABK]

1st grade only or all grades. Wasn't there a club cup in the NRL that decided the best club overall by combining all there grades points?

 

[Sir Clifford GC]

Winning Percentage for a rolling season (24 games) the result of the same round the year before drops off at the end of the round.

Eg
Manly are Currently on 37.5%
They play NZ round 1 and we won Round 1 2004 so if we win we stay the same if we loose we drop 33.3% because we have lost 8 out of our last 24 games.

Lets say the seags beat NZ so we stay on 37.5% and then we beat the sharks in RD2 and we lost in rd2 last season that would move them we then move to 41.1% as we have won 10 our of our last 24.

 

[Broncodroid]

First grade efforts only I was thinking Red and Blue Knight using their stats.

As for winning %, here is something I prepared earlier ;-)

Leeds - 85.71
Bradford - 71.43
Hull - 67.86
Wigan - 60.71
St Helens - 60.71
Wakefield - 53.57
Huddersfield - 42.86
Warrington - 35.71
Salford - 28.57
London - 25
Widnes - 25
Castleford - 21.43
Sydney - 79.17
Canterbury - 79.17
Brisbane - 66.67
Penrith - 62.5
St George - 58.33
Melbourne - 54.17
NQ - 50
Canberra - 45.83
Wests - 41.67
Newcastle - 41.67
Crounlla - 41.67
Parramatta - 37.5
Manly - 37.5
NZ - 25
Souths - 20.83

 

[Sir Clifford GC]

First grade efforts only I was thinking Red and Blue Knight using their stats.

As for winning %, here is something I prepared earlier ;-)

Leeds - 85.71
Bradford - 71.43
Hull - 67.86
Wigan - 60.71
St Helens - 60.71
Wakefield - 53.57
Huddersfield - 42.86
Warrington - 35.71
Salford - 28.57
London - 25
Widnes - 25
Castleford - 21.43
Sydney - 79.17
Canterbury - 79.17
Brisbane - 66.67
Penrith - 62.5
St George - 58.33
Melbourne - 54.17
NQ - 50
Canberra - 45.83
Wests - 41.67
Newcastle - 41.67
Crounlla - 41.67
Parramatta - 37.5
Manly - 37.5
NZ - 25
Souths - 20.83

yep dood and just upgrade it weekly

 

[In-goal]

You would have to include crowds, finance, Youth teams, performance of the team and squad strength.

At the moment my top 10 clubs in the world would be.

Leeds
Canterbury
Sydney
Bradford
Penrith
Wigan
Brisbane
North Queensland
Hull F.C.
St.George Illawarra

Although there maybe better sides there aren't better clubs at this point in time and yes i have ranked the clubs on 1st to 10th.

 

[Broncodroid]

My list posted was by no means the be all end all. The top 20 I will post in the coming days is made up of: winning %, points per/game FOR, points per/game AGAINST, semi final wins, strength of competition.

 

[Sir Clifford GC]

ok here we go
This would be my critera
Win %
Home Crowd Average
Home Win%
Away Win%
Points for
Points against

Now what you do u rate each side on each critera
With 1 being the best club 2 being the 2nd so on and so on until u get to the 29th or 30th club whatever it is.

Then you add up all the points a team gets

Again heres manly for arguments sake
Win% 20th
Home Crowd Ave 21th
Away Wins 25th
Home Wins 15th
Points for 10th
Points against 27th

so u add them up
Manly would be on 127 points

Then lets say the doggie
Wins 1
Home crowd 4
Home wins 1
Away wins 1
Points for 4
Points against 1

So the dogs would be on 12points

so looking at those to teams
the dogs would be ranked up the near the top
and manly would be near the bottom.

To update it this system weekly would take a bit of work but wouldnt be to hard if u set up an excel spread sheet i could give ya hand if u want bronco droid

 

[Bomber]

The system that I would prefer to use is similair to Cliffy's except I would only include the last ten games each club played. That includes finals matches.

Where teams are tied, I would rank them by head-to-head record in the last ten matches. If it is tied or they haven't played, then I would rank by home record If that is tied, thentheir record common opponents in their last ten games would be used as a final tie breaker.

If more than two teams are tied for a particular record, then percentage of wins against each other wins. A 1-0 record would be superior to a 4-1 record.

My NRL form guide thus reads:

1st - Bulldogs (8-2)
2nd - Roosters (8-2) *Bulldogs ranked higher due to head-to-head victory
3rd - Cowboys (7-3)
4th - Dragons (6-4)
5th - Storm (5-5)
6th - Panthers (5-5)
7th - Sea Eagles (5-5) *all three teams played each other and tied with 1-1 records. For-and-against was used to break the tie
8th - Broncos (4-5-1)
9th - Raiders (4-6)
10th - Eels (3-7) *beat the Sharks
11th - Sharks (3-7) *lost to Eels, beat the Knights
12th - Knights (3-7) *lost to Sharks, beat the Tigers
13th - Tigers (3-7) *lost to the Knights yet beat Parramatta
14th - Warriors (2-8)
15th - Souths (1-8-1)

Obviously the system requires tweaking, but it's a start.

 

[Bomber]

Incidentally, after Round 11 of this season, the standings in the 'Bomber System' would have looked like this:

1st - Roosters (8-2)
2nd - Broncos (7-3)
3rd - Panthers (7-3)
4th - Dragons (6-4)
5th - Bulldogs (6-4)
6th - Knights (6-4)
7th - Sharks (6-4)
8th - Tigers (5-5)
9th - Storm (5-5)
10th - Raiders (4-6)
11th - Eels (4-6)
12th - Cowboys (3-6-1)
13th - Sea Eagles (3-7)
14th - Warriors (3-7)
15th - Rabbitohs (2-7-1)

Tie-Breakers
* Broncos beat Penrith 32-14 in Round 7
* Dragons, Bulldogs, Knights and Sharks were seperated by head-to-head record. Dragons (2-1) over Bulldogs (1-1). Knights and Sharks had not played each other nor the Dragons or Bulldogs in their last ten games.
* Knights beat Sharks due to their superior home record (2-1 vs 1-4) in their last ten games
* Tigers (3-1) beat Storm (4-2) in superior home record.
* Canberra beat Parramatta 26-12 in Round 4
* Manly and New Zealand had already played each other twice in 2004, winning once each. Manly scored 52 points to 48 in those two games and thus won the tie breaker.

I'll do another table, this time from Round 20. Stay tuned folks....

 

[Bomber]

Ho and behold!

The Bomber System after Round 20, 2004

1st - Bulldogs (8-2)
2nd - Roosters (8-2)
3rd - Storm (7-3)
4th - Broncos (7-3)
5th - Panthers (6-4)
6th - Raiders (6-4)
7th - Cowboys (6-4)
8th - Sharks (6-4)
9th - Dragons (5-5)
10th - Warriors (4-6)
11th - Knights (4-6)
12th - Rabbitohs (3-6-1)
13th - Tigers (3-7)
14th - Eels (3-7)
15th - Sea Eagles (3-7)

Tie Breakers:

* Bulldogs d. Roosters 40-18
* Storm (5-0) beat Broncos (3-3) on superior home record
* Panthers (1-0) beat Raiders (1-1), who beat the Cowboys (0-2) and Sharks (0-1) on head-to-head record
* Cowboys (2-2) beat Sharks (2-3) on superior home record
* Warriors (3-1) beat Knights (3-4) on superior home record
* Tigers, Eels and Sea Eagles were all 1-1 on head-to-head record
The Tigers (51-32) beat the Eels (58-45) and Sea Eagles (38-70) on head-to-head points

I could do this forever

 

[Goldthorpe]

I'd give mine a go. Last 20 games (Winning percentage)

1. 0.800 Canterbury^
2. 0.800 Easts^
3. 0.600 Penrith^^
4. 0.600 North_Qld^^
5. 0.550 Brisbane*
6. 0.550 Melbourne*
7. 0.550 St_Geo-Illa*
8. 0.450 Wests_Tigers**
9. 0.450 Cronulla**
10. 0.400 Newcastle***
11. 0.400 Canberra***
12. 0.400 Manly***
13. 0.350 Parramatta
14. 0.250 Warriors
15. 0.150 Souths

If winning percentages are even, go to head to head.
^
R3: East bt Canterbury by 35
R13: Canterbury bt Easts by 28
GF: Canterbury bt Easts by 3

^^
R11: Penrith bt North_Qld by 4
R24: Penrith bt North_Qld by 50

*
R4: Brisbane bt Melbourne by 8
R18: Brisbane bt St George by 14
R12: Brisbane bt St George by 2
FI: Melbourne bt Brisbane by 15
R3: Melbourne bt St George by 28
R22: St George bt Melbourne by 20

**
R1: Wests_Tigers bt Cronulla 12-6

***
R12: Canberra bt Manly by 26
R7: Canberra bt Newcastle by 1
R21: Manly bt Canberra by 14
R23: Manly bt Newcastle by 38
R22: Newcastle bt Canberra by 6
R16: Newcastle bt Manly by 44

It is still even, then goes on for and against between these 3 teams
Newcastle has +11
Canberra has +7
Manly has -18

 

[Bomber]

Here is the Cliffy GC Rolling Premiership System, however it has one significant modification. It only takes into account the last game that a team played against their opponents. Therefore, the Bulldogs 16-13 grand final win cancelled out their 40-12 win against the Roosters earlier in the season, and therefore modified their for-and-against (although not their win tally)

The format presented is:
Team - (Wins-Losses-Draws) For-Against (Differential)

1st - Bulldogs (12-1) 518-247 (+277)
2nd - Roosters (11-2) 430-202 (+228)
3rd - Broncos (9-3-1) 303-278 (+25)
4th - Cowboys (9-4) 329-301 (+28)
5th - Dragons (8-5) 367-282 (+85)
6th - Raiders (8-5) 344-339 (+5)
7th - Storm (8-5) 315-313 (+2)
8th - Panthers (8-5) 351-352 (-1)
9th - Sea Eagles (7-6) 406-448 (-42)
10th - Tigers (5-8) 298-320 (-22)
11th - Sharks (5-8) 306-353 (-57)
12th - Eels (5-8) 313-379 (-66)
13th - Knights (5-8) 269-382 (-113)
14th - Rabbitohs (2-10-1) 276-522 (-246)
15th - Warriors (1-12) 251-479 (-228)

Conclusions:

The Bulldogs and Roosters are clearly the best two sides ATM. If the Bulldogs beat the Dragons (I think) and the Cowboys in Round 2 2005 they will have a perfect record.
The Cowboys finished the season ON FIRE!!!!!
As did the Sea Eagles - they left it too late however
Teams 10-13 are really close, as signified in their battle for the Top 8
The Warriors stank up the joint in 2004

11:49 in Queensland now, I'm off to sleep :sleeper:

 

[Bomber]

Bloody emoticons

That should read +28 in the Cowboys column, and 5 wins and 8 losses in the Tigers, Sharks, Eels and Knights columns

Zzzzzzzzz

Bomber

 

[In-goal]

What about the Super League clubs? there statistics are just as easy to find, and on the head to head if there even then why not use home crowds as this is a bearing of club strength. Playing squad isn't everything as has been seen at some clubs who are boardering on the verge of extintion.

 

[nqboy]

Clubs that make the finals should be ranked higher than clubs that don't. Strength of competition would rate NRL clubs higher on average than SL clubs, similar to the cricket ratings where a century against Bangladesh doesn't rate as high as a century against Australia.

 

[Dr Crane]

Strength of competition would rate NRL clubs higher on average than SL clubs

Rank them on who they have faced. Remember that the WCC is almost always won by the ESL (i know about home advantage etc), and for the purposes of the experiment the competitions should be considered equal.

 

[Goldthorpe]

Yeah i like mine the best

 

[RifRaf]

except I would only include the last ten games each club played. That includes finals matches.

Funny that Bomber... Considering your a Cowboys supporter.....

 

[t-ba]

Strength of competition would rate NRL clubs higher on average than SL clubs

Rank them on who they have faced. Remember that the WCC is almost always won by the ESL (i know about home advantage etc), and for the purposes of the experiment the competitions should be considered equal.

No offence to the lower placed clubs in the ESL, but the Gulf between Top & Bottom in the ESL is much more Substantial than in the NRL. the Side that came 13th in the NRL this year managed a 42% record against finalists, I think London managed a draw against Leeds & a win against Hull.