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OT: Current Affairs and Politics

strider

Post Whore
Messages
74,480
Also I believe I called the Evergrande collapse as the impetus to these rumblings (and you all laughed at me).
IMO we are at a stage now where individual opinions of specific people will dictate global actions.
Stop being vague ... what options and what people?
 

84 Baby

Referee
Messages
23,580
Stop being vague ... what options and what people?
Well I was a bit afraid before because the site was very slow around me posting that post so I assume I’m being monitored. But it was probably because @emjaycee was whinging about not liking things. I believe that more overt aggressive steps regarding the South China Sea are a balancing act of the CCP God Tier’s beliefs of potential benefits those steps can bring versus not just the external cost but their ability to control their internal unrest of those steps are taken.
A calm head thinks they’ll keep trying the subtle approach.
A wishful head thinks they’ll go back to hearts and minds diplomacy.
But my gut thinks their genuine insider view has them under pressure and they may look for big and relatively quick runs on the board.
 

Gronk

Moderator
Staff member
Messages
64,478
Can't remember what the polling was before Shorten lost the unlosable election.

 

Gronk

Moderator
Staff member
Messages
64,478
Does Albo have it in him and will the punters see him as a viable alternative ?

 

84 Baby

Referee
Messages
23,580
Can't remember what the polling was before Shorten lost the unlosable election.

FMD even when they get a photo of him supposedly looking concerned, he still looks as smug as a cat holding eye contact as it drops a deuce
 

Bandwagon

Moderator
Staff member
Messages
33,177
Can't remember what the polling was before Shorten lost the unlosable election.


It was very different, Labor held a substantial enough lead ( 4 points+ ) for around two years, but that lead started to trend down around November 2018 and accelerated it's downward trend from around March 2019. You could plot that trend and end up with the result we got, the Labor party got analed by a great big polling dildo......

1643660620034.png

Move on to now, and it looks a very different picture, we are just shy of four months out ( max ) from an election, and the trend isn't at all pretty for the government. That's not to say it can't be reversed, I'd be very surprised if it wasn't to some extent because if it isn't the election will be an absolute bloodbath of proportions never seen, and we know from previous elections that polling almost inevitably tightens as the campaign period heats up.

1643661902276.png

As you can see the trend there accelerating to the basement for the government, and that's just not sustainable, plot it out 'till may and they'd end up in in the low 30's on TPP, which is nigh on an impossible result.

Even looking at that over time, we can see the covid bump for the government is the only thing that has put them in positive since late 2019, if not for that, the downward trend of late might well be where it is now, but not having got there so dramatically

The government are backing the budget being done in March to pull up a hell of a lot of that slide, which it may well do, the problem for them in that strategy is if enough voters have made up their mind by then, shifting the trend so as it falls positive for them on election day will require a reversal of fortunes so herculean as for it to be little more than fantasy.

My thoughts on the result of that, is that the governments only hope is that the margin of error is understated and running at around a four or five rather than a two, and that the polls reverse enough to get them that close.

Anything can happen, but right now they are looking cooked.
 

Gronk

Moderator
Staff member
Messages
64,478
It was very different, Labor held a substantial enough lead ( 4 points+ ) for around two years, but that lead started to trend down around November 2018 and accelerated it's downward trend from around March 2019. You could plot that trend and end up with the result we got, the Labor party got analed by a great big polling dildo......

View attachment 57738

Move on to now, and it looks a very different picture, we are just shy of four months out ( max ) from an election, and the trend isn't at all pretty for the government. That's not to say it can't be reversed, I'd be very surprised if it wasn't to some extent because if it isn't the election will be an absolute bloodbath of proportions never seen, and we know from previous elections that polling almost inevitably tightens as the campaign period heats up.

View attachment 57740

As you can see the trend there accelerating to the basement for the government, and that's just not sustainable, plot it out 'till may and they'd end up in in the low 30's on TPP, which is nigh on an impossible result.

Even looking at that over time, we can see the covid bump for the government is the only thing that has put them in positive since late 2019, if not for that, the downward trend of late might well be where it is now, but not having got there so dramatically

The government are backing the budget being done in March to pull up a hell of a lot of that slide, which it may well do, the problem for them in that strategy is if enough voters have made up their mind by then, shifting the trend so as it falls positive for them on election day will require a reversal of fortunes so herculean as for it to be little more than fantasy.

My thoughts on the result of that, is that the governments only hope is that the margin of error is understated and running at around a four or five rather than a two, and that the polls reverse enough to get them that close.

Anything can happen, but right now they are looking cooked.
Which is odd, because (correct me if I'm wrong) sitting governments usually poll well at times of disaster where they can rally unity and everyone is all about roll your sleeves up nationalism.

I think there is another factor here and this is just a random thought bubble without bothering to check sources, but I think that since Howard losing Bennelong people were a little surprised that your vote can change a government. The Shorten election bucks that trend, but I get the feeling that people feel that democracy is real in AU. That their vote actually counts. SSM vote would have solidified that vibe.
 
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