Panthers Roster no excuses

[franklin2323]

I think we've all agreed top 4 week 3 finals is a good expectation for 2018. Something I think we can manage.

Week 3 of finals should be the aim. We may finish 5 given we could lose our halves to origin but week 3 either way

 

[OldPanther]

Week 3 of finals should be the aim. We may finish 5 given we could lose our halves to origin but week 3 either way

That's fair. If we get a good start to the year and lose a few to origin we'll have a few losses probably. Depending who we play.

 

[mxlegend99]

System isnt complicated enough.

Qusntity of NRL games shouldnt automatically deduct points.

Moylan played fullback for NSW and Australia. But Edwards is a better fullback already IMO. Not a better player though.

I think there shouldnt be deductions. Or rewards for quantity of regular games played. Quantity of above average games should though.

Off the top of my head:
Former Origin rep +1
Current Origin rep +2 (past 12 months)
Former Aus rep +2
Current Aus rep +3 (past 12 months)
Current Top Tier Nation rep +2 (nz/eng)
Minnow Top Tier Nation rep +1 (other)
City vs Country rep +1

Aswell as these which can add up
Finals +1 (per game)
Grand Finals +2 (per game)
Premiership +3 (per win, instead of the 2)

So Maloney would get a ridiculous score. Cleary would get a few points for finals matches. CvC etc. Edwards for finals.

Maybe the values could use adjusting to be a little fairer. But a points system could be fun to see what assigned values say players are worth.

Maloney
2x grand final wins = 6
1x grand final loss = 2
Current aus rep = 3
Current nsw rep = 2
Finals matches × 10ish (cant be bother looking up) = 10

He would be worth 23 or so.

 

[OldPanther]

System isnt complicated enough.

Qusntity of NRL games shouldnt automatically deduct points.

Moylan played fullback for NSW and Australia. But Edwards is a better fullback already IMO. Not a better player though.

I think there shouldnt be deductions. Or rewards for quantity of regular games played. Quantity of above average games should though.

Off the top of my head:
Former Origin rep +1
Current Origin rep +2 (past 12 months)
Former Aus rep +2
Current Aus rep +3 (past 12 months)
Current Top Tier Nation rep +2 (nz/eng)
Minnow Top Tier Nation rep +1 (other)
City vs Country rep +1

Aswell as these which can add up
Finals +1 (per game)
Grand Finals +2 (per game)
Premiership +3 (per win, instead of the 2)

So Maloney would get a ridiculous score. Cleary would get a few points for finals matches. CvC etc. Edwards for finals.

Maybe the values could use adjusting to be a little fairer. But a points system could be fun to see what assigned values say players are worth.

Maloney
2x grand final wins = 6
1x grand final loss = 2
Current aus rep = 3
Current nsw rep = 2
Finals matches × 10ish (cant be bother looking up) = 10

He would be worth 23 or so.

That's awesome. I might do one up for every team based on the round 1 predicted team lists (not perfect I know) or at least top 5.

 

[snickers007]

Will look through other teams when I finish work and compare/update the thread but a cursory glance says we are out of excuses as far as the roster goes.

"No excuses" is a bit premature when you have calculated exactly 1 team. It's an interesting exercise regardless, although I'm not sure your scoring methodology is quite right.

What result are you expecting here? Top 4? Top 2?

 

[OldPanther]

"No excuses" is a bit premature when you have calculated exactly 1 team. It's an interesting exercise regardless, although I'm not sure your scoring methodology is quite right.

What result are you expecting here? Top 4? Top 2?

I like what MX said a few comments up as a method. This was more born from people dismissing our roster as if they are all rookies or something. I definitely don't think we'll get a prem but top 4 is what I'm thinking. Maybe get into 4th.

 

[mxlegend99]

That's awesome. I might do one up for every team based on the round 1 predicted team lists (not perfect I know) or at least top 5.

After that I was thinking it could be way more complicated to be more accurate.

Break it down by season:
NRL games:
3 points for each regular season win
1 point for each regular season loss
5 points for each finals win
2 points for a finals loss
5 points for a GF loss
10 points for a GF win
Tally that up,then multiply it by the players winning percentage for that season.

Rep games
Origin win = 5 points
Origin loss = 2 points
Australian win = 5 points
Australian loss = 2 points
NZ / England win = 4 points
NZ / England loss = 1 point
Minnow nation / rep game win = 3 points
Minnow nation / rep game loss = 1 point

Multiply each rep category by winning percentage there... so in Pearces case he gets say 9 points for an Origin series, but he won 33% of his games so only gets 3 points because he's shit. While Cronk would get 12 points for his series, then get 66% of those points and walk away with 8 points for his series.

Tally all that up for each season. Add the total rep and regular games together for each season, then do the following:

2017 season = 100% of tally
2016 season = 90% of tally
2015 season = 80% of tally

And so on. As the further back games go, the less relevant they are to now. Games 10 years ago are pretty much irrelevant to a players ability now anyway.

Was thinking an excel spreadsheet could make it easy to work out each players value on something like that. Although it is a lot of work to setup initially.

 

[OldPanther]

After that I was thinking it could be way more complicated to be more accurate.

Break it down by season:
NRL games:
3 points for each regular season win
1 point for each regular season loss
5 points for each finals win
2 points for a finals loss
5 points for a GF loss
10 points for a GF win
Tally that up,then multiply it by the players winning percentage for that season.

Rep games
Origin win = 5 points
Origin loss = 2 points
Australian win = 5 points
Australian loss = 2 points
NZ / England win = 4 points
NZ / England loss = 1 point
Minnow nation / rep game win = 3 points
Minnow nation / rep game loss = 1 point

Multiply each rep category by winning percentage there... so in Pearces case he gets say 9 points for an Origin series, but he won 33% of his games so only gets 3 points because he's shit. While Cronk would get 12 points for his series, then get 66% of those points and walk away with 8 points for his series.

Tally all that up for each season. Add the total rep and regular games together for each season, then do the following:

2017 season = 100% of tally
2016 season = 90% of tally
2015 season = 80% of tally

And so on. As the further back games go, the less relevant they are to now. Games 10 years ago are pretty much irrelevant to a players ability now anyway.

Was thinking an excel spreadsheet could make it easy to work out each players value on something like that. Although it is a lot of work to setup initially.

Good idea. When I get a day off I'm going to look into it.

 

[OldPanther]

I should be able to get it sorted by saturday.

 

[mxlegend99]

Good idea. When I get a day off I'm going to look into it.

I like a system which values:

More recent = More relevant

Winning percentages influence how many points you get = Every game is worth something. But the more successful you are the more points you keep

Difficulty of game played is rewarded with a higher score, although Higher games difficulty isnt rewarded if you had a shitty winning percentage .

No way Pearce in Origin deserves close to Cronk.
No way any NSW player does really.

 

[mxlegend99]

I also originally felt Australian game wins shouldnt be worth much as they're certainty wins. But now i feel it's offset by difficulty and chance at being picked.

The wins are easy. But the getting picked wasnt.

 

[OldPanther]

I like a system which values:

More recent = More relevant

Winning percentages influence how many points you get = Every game is worth something. But the more successful you are the more points you keep

Difficulty of game played is rewarded with a higher score, although Higher games difficulty isnt rewarded if you had a shitty winning percentage .

No way Pearce in Origin deserves close to Cronk.
No way any NSW player does really.

Yeah I wouldn’t go too far back just to keep it relevant to 2018 as much as possible.

 

[mxlegend99]

Yeah I wouldn’t go too far back just to keep it relevant to 2018 as much as possible.

Maybe even stop at 5 years.

Like Peter Wallace... his Origin match was so long ago its hardly relevant now. Otherwise guys with long successful careers like Cam Smith could have 10 times the score without actually being 10 times better in a game. its a tough call really.

 

[OldPanther]

I had to work my weekend so it'll have to wait. Sorry.

 

[umina panther]

I had to work my weekend so it'll have to wait. Sorry.

That's not good enough mate

 

[OldPanther]

That's not good enough mate

I'll say 10 hail Brandy's and repent my sins.

 

[mxlegend99]

Quit your job. Its getting in the way of your posting.

 

[OldPanther]

Quit your job. Its getting in the way of your posting.

Haha! I'll get the mods onto my employer.

 

[Frankus]

Rookie(-50 games I guess) -1, NRL level 0, Rep +1

Edwards: -1

Mansour: +1

Peachy/Whare: I'll say 0 sonce we don't know who's preferred this year

Blake: +1 (exception as is our best centre, would walk into most teams)

DWZ: +1

Maloney: +100 (seriously +1)

Cleary: 0

Tamou: +1

Wallace: +1 (played rep and was due last year except injury)

RCG: +1

Yeo: 0
Kikau: +1
Merrin: +1

Bench:

Fish: +1
Browne: 0
Katoa: +1
???

Will look through other teams when I finish work and compare/update the thread but a cursory glance says we are out of excuses as far as the roster goes.

So the PNG hunters in the Qld Cup are like a +13. Right

 

[OldPanther]

So the PNG hunters in the Qld Cup are like a +13. Right

Haha no. They are a QCup team not international. I'm refining it as I go so any input is appreciated.