Peter Beatte NRL 360 - expansion

Discussion in 'NRL Expansion' started by Cumberland Throw, Sep 12, 2018.

  1. Cumberland Throw

    Cumberland Throw First Grade

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    God it's worrying, when the chairman says .. gee I'm not too sure , if channel 9 and fox want more games I guess we expand..

    If they don't .. we wait for a Sydney team to fall over


    Wow
     
  2. Perth Red

    Perth Red Immortal

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    Yep pretty much confirmed my concerns they still have no strategy for expansion and will be at the whim in 2021 of what tv decides they want. AFL put together a national expansion strategy 30 years ago with an aim to have two clubs in every major capital city outside Melbourne and have worked and invested to achieve it. Our strategy is let’s see what tv wants. Pretty much sums up our games administration really. When the game can’t commit 5% of its income to expand its national footprint you know were not seeing growth anytime soon.

    Nearly choked on my glass of wine when he said the prime ministers 13 game is part of what he meant by expansion!
     
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  3. Cumberland Throw

    Cumberland Throw First Grade

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    It is very concerning when he says our media partners might only want 16 teams..

    What media company on Earth wouldn't want more content for the top rating sport in the country ..

    They may not want to pay more .. but I can't see anyone knocking back a 9th game..

    And besides that the tail doesn't wag the dog..

    Just come out now and say 2022 we are expanding .. it will build 4 years of anticipation anyway ..

    Brisbane 2 will fund itself.. and Perth will take $20m a year over 5 years .. surely the 9th game will pull in $100m extra

    If the current partners don't want the extra game we will sell it to a 3rd media outlet..
     
  4. taipan

    taipan Coach

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    Bit like what happened to the Lions and Swans in the AFL.They were basket cases in Melbourne.Where was the long term strategy prior?This was hardly part of that.More like short term reaction and decisions.
    Anyway you should be fully aware of such AFL issues ,on expansion.
     
  5. taipan

    taipan Coach

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    Why should anyone be shocked with Beattie's comments ?Pretty much what we know as of now.

    All the talk from everyone prior and even now .was/is on the basis of what an additional game would be worth to the TV stations.Beattie confirmed such a thing.

    If your main source of income states its worth X amount ,and no more even after competing between the 3 Tv stations and Fox,that's the basis the code has to work on.

    Fox has pretty much remained fairly static on subscriptions,very little growth.One will also need to check the effect of having the cricket on STV re subs.And also research would need to be done on the effect of subs on a team in Perth.A new team in Brisbane will hardly bring in new subscribers there.
    Its Fox who pay the bulk of the loot.
    The way I see it, having a more national presence may well help with the advertisers.The other possibility that channel 10,with CBS backing may have more clout in TV deals, and they need ratings content,instead of the cheap sh*t shows they now have.

    All the advice from the NRL has been, any Sydney team that falls down will not be assisted ,and will be relocated.Again Beattie affirmed that view.
    Any debate here has been about ,a decision would have to be made well before the 2023 season.That is what most of us with half a clue here ,have opined.He Beattie stated that view.

    He stated also the code needed to have more money under the current deal saved to be able to expand ,after Kent threw that suggestion to Beattie.To date they will have about $45m in the Bank after additional disbursements from extra profits, to clubs/state leagues and grassroots.
    So it's not just a simplified case of throwing 5% of revenue at expansion.It's firstly to have a treasure chest building up from$45m pa, then with that backing you are in a far better position to decide on expansion end 2020.

    Again not mentioned ,the lie of the land in the next few years regarding new technology and the financial positions of the Tv companies.

    The only point I thought was silly was stating the PMs X111 was expansion.But again he did that ,when he was talking about the importance of the Pacific Islands for expansion, and no doubt source of players.

    He realises you must have a national footprint, and he hinted at that ,when he was asked where does he see the NRL in 10 years.
     
    Last edited: Sep 13, 2018
  6. Perth Red

    Perth Red Immortal

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    I’m not shocked, he just confirmed what I feared, they have no plan and will wait and see what the tv companis tell them to do in 2021.
     
  7. President Trump

    President Trump Juniors

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    Beattie showing the same lack of vision that he displayed when he was an incompetent bumbling Labor Premier of NSW. Intellectually lazy too in the grand Labor tradition.
     
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  8. Billythekid

    Billythekid First Grade

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    I think you'd do yourself a lot of good if you stopped expecting so much. The NRL is unlikely to ever expand and expecting anything more is likely only going to lead to disappointment.

    I've pretty much just given up hope at this point. It'll be exciting if it ever happens but I won't be holding my breath.

    Honestly can't tell if I'm being trolled but you do realise he was premier of QLD?
     
  9. Vee

    Vee Juniors

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    Qld.
     
  10. taipan

    taipan Coach

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    Did the AFL have a long term plan, when they flicked the Lions and Swans from Melbourne?
    No.That was brought about by necessity.Move or die.Simple.
    And number of near death experiences the Swans had in the early years, had the AFL wondering was it worth the effort.Then then got kissed on the a*se by SL war.
    And look at how much they have spent/wasted on the Lions and Suns even the Gnats.

    As long as the NRL expands,without the need to waste money, they don't have in bucketloads. Go ahead.

    Having only $45m in the Bank this year is hardly having a motza to expand,the AFL gobbled that up and more in expansion in 1 year.Would the AFL have expanded to GWS ,if they had such a "small" amount in the bank? I doubt it.

    Seeing the Tv companies pay a huge % of the code's revenue, one would be an idiot to ignore
    @ their ability to pay a big increase.
    b) Whether expansion would bring in the money we all think they would,taht doesn't mean so if ad revenue drops..
    c) the Tv companies are already being impacted by live streams.
    d) Foxtel is not growing the subscription pie,it's in fact stagnating.

    Oh but we have this plan, and we're going ahead with it now,even though we have little in the bank, grassroots still needs large amounts, we have no idea and neither do the TV companies of revenue and the impact of expansion,nor the effect new stadiums and club infrastructure on Sydney crowds and membership yet.Let's just flick two Sydney teams now, that'll be a smooth operation.

    It's easy for us to say an extra game will bring in X extra revenue now, appears for the Tv stations if Beattie is right, that's still an unanswered question.Ok that's if they have in fact asked it.That's a question that can only really be near 100% closer to the mark on TV negotiation time.

    There NRL goes in then with, we offer an 18 team competition ,with a Perth and Brisbane/Adelaide city involved.9 games, over time zones etc, and go from there.

    We certainly know the TV companies dictated to the NRL when Smith,went rogue.Promising the AFL extra promo being done now in the Nthn States and extra loot in their TV contract.

    If the Tv companies dictate that (on the proviso we get 18 teams, and the monetary increase), then we have to accept they get some scheduling control,which IMO with an extra game won't be as bad as currently sits.

    I will add this ,the latest 2018 Tv ratings shows the NRL is above the AFL's ,if that continues then the NRL can do some heavy dollar screwing with the TV hobnobs.
    And I repeat having CBS behind ch10 ,may well assist in creating competitive tension at negotiation time.
     
  11. taipan

    taipan Coach

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    No ,no,no.Kempsey is in Queensland.Inglis told me so.
     
  12. Perth Red

    Perth Red Immortal

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    Yes they did, when they decided to expand the vfl into a National Comp they knew they needed to rationalise an over saturated market and bring in clubs in every major capital city. The ARL had exactly the same plan, including rationalising Sydney. Sadly SL destroyed the plan and we’ve spent 21 years since with no real plan other than trying to survive. AFL started planning and made a decision on expansion in 2005 bringing thenteams in 2011/12. They did not have $45mill in the bank, or even close to it, in 2005!

    I wonder where all the investment in “digital”plays a part? Surely if nrl are gearing up to deliver its own content having unique content only available on their service, like a ninth game, would be a good thing?

    We are heading for exactly the same outcomes as in 2011 and 2016, tv says no, game continues to stagnate.
     
    Last edited: Sep 14, 2018
  13. flamin

    flamin Juniors

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    Well he’s certainly changed his tune from when he got the job.
     
  14. LeagueXIII

    LeagueXIII Bench

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    Agreed, the priority is building the games assets up again after they were obliterated by the Super League war and under Gallop who did nothing but serve News Ltd.

    Shame Kent and News didn't go hard on Gallop about why the game was under funded for more than a decade. .
     
  15. taipan

    taipan Coach

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    You don't; have to be a genius to understand having teams in every cap city is a plus.Never argued once against that view.

    They(AFL) did not do so until Sth Melbourne and the Lions got into real financial trouble .If both those clubs had been in healthy financial situations and with crowds to match ,they'd be still there.
    there was also an attempt to merge from memory the Hawks with another side.That failed.

    One of the reasons AFL finally went into Western Sydney was the push by Sheedy to do so.They would not have done so, if the Swans had not finally got their act together, thanks to being in semis, a friendly Sydney press, and the Super league War of 1995.
    If the Swans needed to continually have extra tens of millions of dollars to keep them afloat,there would be SFA decision of GWS.
    Have a look at their early history in Sydney,for Edelstein.to Willessee ,and Craig Kimberley.They nearly went down the gurgler, on a couple of occasions.


    Correct SL did stuff things up.they(News) had not a clue about the financial outcome of the war ,nor fan reaction ,where the war cost News well over $450m ,and the ARL left with zero in the Bank.

    The ARL under Arthurson had a team in WA,but Perth in their wisdom decided to go to SL,as did my club.So the NRL is not to blame.Maybe if you guys had stood solid,the Sharks may have been eventually flicked due to their then financial situation ,and you'd now have a team.You guys have to take some responsibility ATT,but you won't.

    AFL never had such a disruption.Rugby league was killing it, prior to 1995.And the AFL never had a media outlet half owning it ,effectively screwing TV deals.
    eg the NRL gets $500m over 6 years under Gallop,the AFL $780m over 5 years.AS Jack Gibson would say"who done good?"


    LOL You are comparing money in the bank circa 2005 to now sheesh.The buying power now of a dollar is a lot less than 2005.Seriously.The ARL had approx $23m in the Bank circa 1995,befoire it was all sucked up by the war.
    They obviously had the money to go into GWS and the GC,the TV monies,and revenue streams .The money they have spent with both those franchises ,plus Brisbane,can only be done so with money in the bank, and lots of it.And it continues too suck up large sums.The AFL had a surplus of $48m in 2017,we had a loss.
    This is the first year of the new TV deal.

    We had sh*thouse Tv deals when News half owned us, and only now we are starting to see the financial Tv contract benefits ,by giving them the toss.
    How much extra would we have got from News,if Smith hadn't gone rogue? We'll never know.

    Last para you need to check with the NRL,they have stated they have double digit growth across all categories.
    Maybe the code should'nt have an infrastructure fund for Affiliated States instead use that to finance your club
     
  16. taipan

    taipan Coach

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    That's my point.If I had the financial clout I'd be firmly stating in a SP, Perth and Adelaide/Brisbane in 2023 ,as of now.
    $23m est in the ARL's Bank circa 1995 would be worth what now?Throw in the Tv deals that were gifts to News.
    Former New's employees are protected species,Gallop despite some of the idiots misbehaving off field escaped any criticism.He was on deck when we got screwed with the $500m 6 years Tv deal, he was on deck when the Storm salary cap drama happened, he was on deck when the ASADA issue happened in 2011.He has come out of being CEO of the NRL, as some sort of saviour.

    The lost financial opportunities make a grown boy cry.
     
  17. The Great Dane

    The Great Dane Bench

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    Umm, yeah actually they did...

    The VFL has had a handful of expansion plans since the 70's that planned out the future growth of the sport going into the future, effectively with the intent to create the AFL. Moving clubs out of Melbourne and/or replacing them with "interstate" clubs has been part of those plans since the beginning as well.

    The Swans growth was steadily trending up since well before SL, and their real growth spurt didn't come until well after SL was done and dusted either. They really exploded in the mid 00s when (surprise, surprise) they became consistently successful on the field and won a "flag", and since that time they haven't had a significant period where they haven't been successful on the pitch (cause the AFL won't let them fail after what happened with the Lions after their successful period ended), for all we know they could be headed headlong towards a fall from grace similar to that the Lions suffered if they suddenly drop from a consistent top 8/4 side to cellar dwellers.

    So yeah with or without SL the Swans were growing and were going to grow as big as they have.

    You have to invest in things so they grow, expecting instant success is an absolutley ridiculous standard.

    And in the case of Brisbane I'd be extremely surprised if their presence in the competition hasn't resulted in a net profit over their existence, without a club in Brisbane the AFL's TV deals are significantly smaller that's for sure.

    If we applied the same standard of "waste" to clubs from Sydney three quarters wouldn't exist anymore, yours in particular would've carked it multiple times over.

    So yeah enough with your entitled double standards...

    I forget the exact numbers and can't be bothered redoing the math, but if the NRL gets roughly the same amount that the AFL got for an extra game (which isn't an unreasonable assumption) then expansion pays for it's self and more (i.e. even if the NRL is investing 15 million each a year in the new clubs they'd still make a profit from expansion...), cause operating an NRL club doesn't cost half as much as operating an AFL club...

    This is such a one dimensional view of the situation that it hurts my brain!

    Yeah TV and pay TV is getting murdered by the internet and streaming, thanks for the news flash, but those facts don't mean that streaming services won't want sports products that attract millions of viewers to their service in the future.
    Netflix, Amazon, Disney, etc, have money as well, and if any of them want to launch a sports streaming service into Australia (which is inevitable) then having the NRL (or AFL for that matter) on their service would be a huge plus, kind of like how having RL on his subscription service was such a big deal to Murdoch when he was launching it in Australia that he basically started the SL war over it...

    We don't have a plan, that's what people a complaining about...
    We've got more then enough in the bank, stop trying to compare the NRL to AFL in this regard.

    The AFL had to manufacture their new clubs, the NRL has people lining up to pay them to join their comp, massive difference.
    Grassroots being underfunded has nothing to do with expansion... Maybe if we didn't make RL in this country so massively top heavy and didn't give the top 0.001% of players and clubs way more then their fair share of revenue then we'd have enough to go around...
    BS, just complete and utter BS. A quick look through the history books of what the effects of expansion were after prior attempts in any number of codes under similar circumstances is all that would need to be done to rectify that.
    f**k Sydney!
    Expansion into new markets isn't about Sydney and crowds in Sydney!
    You don't see me saying 'but what about Canberra' when expansion gets brought up.

    It says an order of magnitude more about those clubs and the state of the Sydney market then it says about expansion or the expansion clubs if expansion is that much of a threat to them.
    Who's saying that? Apart from some bloke in Queensland looking to get a headline who is even seriously suggesting that?

    It's not even on the agenda, stop being hyperbolic and frankly ridiculous.
    Yeah lets let a couple of TV companies dictate what is best for the NRL, they don't have a massive conflict of interest or anything, it's not like they'll put their profit margin ahead of the NRL's or the sports growth, or that it's not in their interest to keep the growth of the sport down so that the TV rights don't blow out to much over the next contract, not to mention the fact that they are a dying medium, that's a f**king sterling idea...

    Do you work for News or one of the broadcasters or something. Jesus H Christ.
    Smith had Fox by the balls, he'd completely f**ked their negotiating position, they'd either had to have capitulated to everything he demanded or he would have taken the rest of the games to another FTA broadcaster where admittedly he probably wouldn't have got as much cash, but the value to the growth of the sport and the good will to the fans would have been huge, either way he won, it's just too bad that the people in power at the ARLC were scared by uncle Rupert into capitulating and getting rid of Smith.

    Are you schizophrenic?

    One minute you're talking about effectively allowing broadcasting companies to control the future growth of the game, the next you are talking about screwing them for cash...
     
  18. The Great Dane

    The Great Dane Bench

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    You do that by introducing new revenue streams and expanding, not by sitting on your hands waiting for things to change for the better...

    BTW, the game has more assests now that it's ever had at any other time in it's history, and stop trying to use SL as an excuse for all the games ills, at this point all constantly bringing SL up is doing is creating a boogeyman and an excuse not to things, when realistically the chance of another SL ever happening again are slim to none.

    Every cent of it would be gone, they would have had to have thrown it away to prop up the competition in the late 90s and early 00s after all the clubs that were on deaths door feel over Seagulls style and the ARL was forced to take a majority of them over (Chargers style) to meet the requirements of their contracts to broadcasters, caused largely by their (the ARL's) own mismanagement (and frankly arrogance).

    The Raiders, Perth, NQ, Auckland, Illawarra, Newcastle, and half of the Sydney clubs were all marching into a massive crash all at the same time and though a lot of the blame can be laid at the clubs own feet for that (plenty of mismanagement was going on) a good part of that was the ARL's fault (they over extended themselves, set clubs up to fail by giving them impossible standards to meet, had different standards and rules for different clubs, and allowed clubs that weren't anywhere near sustainable into the comp).

    So yeah SL or no SL the ARL was going to be broke pretty soon in the mid to late 90s...
     
  19. Cumberland Throw

    Cumberland Throw First Grade

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    The fact that expansion clubs like Perth and NZ etc signed with SL before they kicked aa ball in ARL has always been bewildering to me
     
  20. jim_57

    jim_57 Juniors

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    I'm at this stage too, I will believe it when I see it but I can still see it being the same excuses in 10 years.

    Funny thing is the NRL could bite the bullet, announce 4 expansion teams over 5-10 years (Perth, Brisbane 2, NZ 2 & Adelaide/Brisbane3/NZ3/Melbourne2) and then they could shut everyone up about expansion for the next 30 years. Offer incentives for Sydney clubs to relocate entirely or just a certain number of games to strategic areas and we'd be fairly set for a very long time.

    Unfortunately the current clubs think that since one of them has to come last means they must bolster the local scene until none of the 16 clubs come 16th, god forbid if they finished 18th or 20th :eek:.
     
    Last edited: Sep 14, 2018

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