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Rumoured Targets 3

Mr_Knightside

Juniors
Messages
2,343
What’s the deal with Ilias? He was really good in his first proper year of NRL then his form fell off a cliff after that, then he was dropped and Souths continued to go poorly which suggests that he may not have been the issue. Then did he get injured in reserve grade or something?

He’s a fair bit younger than Hastings and potentially it’s a case of him needing to go to a new club to find his mojo again but yeah I’d have a hard time getting excited about it if it did happen.
 

HarVeeGee

Juniors
Messages
203
I think he has a bit of Luke Brooks syndrome. Looks the part, has a bit of a habit of ALMOST doing something good then messing up, or coming up with the wrong options at the worst times.

That being said, Souths got worse after they dropped him, not better.

AOB would probably pick him immediately because he’s oddly good for a halfback defensively and he’d stick by him too I’d imagine. Do we want that? I don’t know 😆

He broke his tibia in reserve grade yeah.
 
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HarVeeGee

Juniors
Messages
203
It does take time and he might have been made a scapegoat (probably didn't help that his manager was in the media 24/7 slagging off his teammates), BUT I am definitely not at all confident that there's an NRL level halfback in there.

Here's how I'd explain it: there's another guy off contract at the same time who on paper profiles very similarly to Ilias - Toby Sexton. Both will be 24 when the season kicks off in 2025, they've played a similar number of games, and they've had a bit of a wobbly NRL career so far where they've been in and out of their first grade team.

Ilias: 53 games, 10 tries, 22 try assists, 8 line breaks, 23 line break assists, 25 forced drop outs.
Sexton: 47 games, 7 tries, 28 try assists, 9 line breaks, 20 line break assists, 42 forced drop outs.

From these stats you'd probably conclude that Sexton has a somewhat better short kicking game, they offer a comparable running threat, and Ilias is a slightly better ball player. But in my opinion Sexton *is* going to pan out as a first grade halfback and Ilias *is not*.

Here's what the eye test tells me:

- Ilias has played almost all of his games with Cameron Murray, who's maybe the best ball player out of all lock forwards, who takes most of the halfback burden off his shoulders, and despite Souths going off a cliff for the last dozen or so games he's played in, he's mostly played in a notably well-structured and slick attacking system. The vast majority of his try assists are just him going to the line and throwing very simple short passes to Keaon Koloamatangi where he's 1 on 1 with a smaller defender - stuff that more or less any halfback could have done (note that when his form went downhill, it was when they changed Koloamatangi's role in the team, so you had Braith and his media mates giving him shit for "taking Keaon away from him" and "breaking up their partnership" - okay, but why does he need to be playing beside a cheat code ball runner to play good?). He's also quicker and more nimble than Sexton and has a much higher career win % so it's actually weird that he's broken the line less often. If there are many instances of Lachie setting up tries with deft kicks, or throwing a really clever pass to exploit out of position defenders, I certainly haven't seen them.

- Sexton has played with a variety of different teammates, pretty much no consistency at all in terms of which players are around him, and outside of with the Bulldogs this year (1/3 of his career approximately) he's played on absolutely dogshit teams which are getting belted almost every week. Even this Dogs team he's on is known more as a grinding team rather than one which has a good attacking system, so basically, I think when Sexton has been involved in setting up tries, I think almost all of it is off his own back. Wouldn't shock me if more than 20 of his try assists are from clever & well executed short kicks. He came into first grade with one elite skill - his boot, he's a terrific kicker across the board pretty much - but has never looked to be much of a running threat, and his ball playing wasn't great, he seemed to play very stiff and didn't seem to have a lot of deception in his game. I would say he's still not inspiring terror in defences with his legs (he at least seems to know *when* to run, so will break the line at times), but his ball playing has gotten notably better - his rate of setting up line breaks is going up, not down like it has for Ilias, and he does look to me like he's developing a bag of tricks which should continue to improve.

In short: I think Sexton has shown enough that you can be reasonably confident that he's on track for a Chad Townsend level career. A capable 200-250 game+ first grade halfback who may end up playing for about 4 or 5 clubs as he's often the halfback a club is happy with for the moment, but one where said clubs are on the lookout for a more complete #7 to take his place. Because his boot is so good though and he has improved year on year, there is a chance he might end up being better than just capable & reliable.

I think Ilias is destined for the Super League.

If we signed Sexton I'd be happy but not ecstatic, and I'd feel like the halfback issue was finally solved, for the short to medium term at the very least. If we signed Ilias, I'd get a queasy feeling in the pit of my stomach, and I guess I'd just have to assume O'Sullivan knows what he's doing and sees something more than I'm seeing.
 

SamSepi0l

Juniors
Messages
488
God that's depressing. From talk of Pezet to... Ilias.
If Jacko is off contract end of next season anyway then it's a downgrade.
 
Messages
2,073
Fans and media are far to harsh on young halfbacks, especially those from clubs that are struggling. Far too often they are blamed for the woes and written off far too early. Sexton is a very good example of that, could even argue young Kyle Flannagan too.

I'm not saying Illias can be Cleary or Hughes level but the kid has it in him to be solid at least, possibly very good in the right environment. Issue is Newcastle can hardly be considered a good environment for a young half struggling for form.

2 things I do know is a. Hastings is too busted to do much for our prospects and b. Crossland is a stop gap better off as a bench utility. That leaves us with Cogger and Gamble which are both arguably closer to being the same as Crossland than first grades halves. We are in a position where we need to either gamble on youth or pony up more cap than we can afford for proven quality, which there is little available on the market
 

SamSepi0l

Juniors
Messages
488
Fans and media are far to harsh on young halfbacks, especially those from clubs that are struggling. Far too often they are blamed for the woes and written off far too early. Sexton is a very good example of that, could even argue young Kyle Flannagan too.

I'm not saying Illias can be Cleary or Hughes level but the kid has it in him to be solid at least, possibly very good in the right environment. Issue is Newcastle can hardly be considered a good environment for a young half struggling for form.

2 things I do know is a. Hastings is too busted to do much for our prospects and b. Crossland is a stop gap better off as a bench utility. That leaves us with Cogger and Gamble which are both arguably closer to being the same as Crossland than first grades halves. We are in a position where we need to either gamble on youth or pony up more cap than we can afford for proven quality, which there is little available on the market
And Ilias is neither of those. Ilias is the epitome of burning cap - whatever we pay him will be more than he provides.
Sexton wasn't good last year either, he performed well in a side that had great structure. He was just better the Drew Hutch who is terrible.
 

Apey

Moderator
Staff member
Messages
28,249
The sad thing is we dont need a top tier halfback. Just one that is competent, which I guess you could argue would make them top tier in the current climate. We don't need someone who is going to throw up 20+ try assists a year, they just need to provide a bit of threat on their own (which most halfbacks do besides ours imo), have a long kicking game (the biggest ask), and be able to pass the ball to Ponga.
 

Woody90

Juniors
Messages
2,204
Whether I’d go for it or not will really come down to the details.

Direct swap for 2025 only? Yes - I’d go for it, especially if Ilias on less than Hastings so we can get some cap space. Ilias might be crap but there’s too much water under the bridge with Hastings for him to ever play FG again for us so he’s essentially a wasted spot. Ilias at least may offer injury cover.

Taking Ilias on longer than 2025 when Hastings contract ends? No, hard pass.
 

HarVeeGee

Juniors
Messages
203
Yeah the more I think about it, the more the idea of Ilias makes me nauseous hahaha. He really didn't show anything in first grade so gee he must have been doing some crazy stuff in lower grades given the wraps on him.

Pezet should be the first choice. If that's not going to happen:

- Try to figure out a way to get into the Ben Hunt sweepstakes (might have a better player we can send back in return than the Dogs who have probably offered DUI Addo-Carr). Or;
- See what happens with Ben Hunt and if he ends up at the Dogs, that's a free run at Toby Sexton, who you could probably get straight away on a decent cost-controlled contract and he would handle the bulk of the general play kicking and organisation, which would allow the club to pay a decent salary to a good running 6 if one can be found. Or;
- Have a crack at either off contract Sharks half, would prefer Tricky but he'll be expensive, and I think Atkinson has shown reasonable upside given he has a threatening running game, can kick, and has performed well in high pressure moments like golden point.

Not sure what other options we've got besides riding it out with our current halves, keeping cap space open, and hoping for something miraculous like a Mitch Moses release request.
 

SamSepi0l

Juniors
Messages
488
The problem with Ilias is he sets us up to continue to make mistakes.
He's a limited at best player. He comes here, KP runs hot and he isn't Cogger level bad, gets extension because we throw them around too easily and don't want to be left with no one in 2026, now we're stuck with Ilias on the books. Hard pass.
 

Yosh

Coach
Messages
11,898
I just want a half who has a good long kicking game and a good running game (can threatening the defense by himself) and is always supporting.

If I could pick anyone I'd want Moses or Dearden. I really hope something happens at the Eels and we can have a crack at Moses.
 

slotmachine

First Grade
Messages
7,408
Moses is 30 and has previous form forcing an early release (absolutely dogged it for the Tigers).
If the Eels are bad again next year can definitely see him trying to manoeuvre his way to a decent team.

I also think if the Nicho Hynes pile on continues there might be something there.
 
Messages
2,073
Look, I'm not advocating for Ilias here but nor am I going to write the kid off. He was more a runner as a junior and Souths needed an organiser. His lack of form in FG could have been due to a square peg round hole scenario

I remember Dearden suffered a similar fate at Brisbane before going to the Cowboys and playing with a dominant half.

Again we're probably not the club to help him though
 

SamSepi0l

Juniors
Messages
488
Given the context we're talking about - Ilias playing for the Knights, I am 100% comfortable writing him off. It's a terrible fit. At best at the moment he's in need of a lot of work to be a passable FG half.
 

Knight Tales

Bench
Messages
2,988
Hard to see Jackson knocking back a chance to play under Bennett. He is exactly the coach he needs at this time of his life and career. I can see the swap going ahead.
 

HarVeeGee

Juniors
Messages
203
Look, I'm not advocating for Ilias here but nor am I going to write the kid off. He was more a runner as a junior and Souths needed an organiser. His lack of form in FG could have been due to a square peg round hole scenario

I remember Dearden suffered a similar fate at Brisbane before going to the Cowboys and playing with a dominant half.

Again we're probably not the club to help him though
I’m not going to pretend I called it that Dearden would go on to be a Maroons and Kangaroos half, but I do think he looked like a much more natural and comfortable #7 (and he may yet end up becoming that) than Lachie does.

But yeah we do need a true #7 who can make better use of the weapons we have. We also need a dangerous runner who has a deadly cut back inside to draw attention away from Kalyn, but that’s a secondary need and we already have a bunch of players who should have the physical attributes to do that job in the top 30 + development list.
 

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