Season 2020 COVID-19 discussion thread

Discussion in 'Parramatta Eels' started by Tooooks, Mar 15, 2020.

  1. I'm a loser baby...

    I'm a loser baby... Immortal

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    Two month old projections? Maybe they weren't that accurate. From the article I linked today:

    Meanwhile, the Swedish economy has surprised on the upside. Last week, its economy was revealed to have shrunk by 8.6 per cent in the second quarter – cataclysmic by normal standards, of course, yet in the circumstances it counts as a triumph. GDP across the Eurozone shrank by 12 per cent, with Spain’s economy plunging by 18 per cent quarter on quarter. Britain’s GDP figures won’t be out until next Wednesday, but we will be doing very well if we don’t out-shrink Spain. At one point the Office of Budgetary Responsibility was penciling in a 35 per cent plunge for the UK in the second quarter.

    There was no way that Sweden, with many of its neighbours’ economies closed, was going to escape without a sharp contraction. Volvo, for example, suffered a 38 per cent fall in sales as showrooms across Europe were closed. Nevertheless, there is an intriguing possibility that Sweden could be just about the only developed country to manage to get through the Covid-19 crisis without technically suffering a recession – defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth.

    Alone in Europe, it managed to grow its economy by 0.4 percent in the first quarter. One after another, Swedish companies have produced results which have exceeded expectations. There have been few bankruptcies. What’s more, having kept factories and other workplaces open throughout the crisis, the Swedes have an advantage in the recovery. They don’t have a workforce which has lost the habit of working, which enjoyed weeks off in the spring sunshine and is now reluctant to return.
     
  2. Gronk

    Gronk Moderator Staff Member

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    The OECD Reports are a non partisan reflection of the actual state of play.

    Your article has been written with a pre-determined agenda - Lockdown supporters cannot bear the thought that Sweden has got it right. Sorry but anyone can manipulate and cherry pick to suit a narrative. For that reason I'm not going to reflect on them at all. Waste of time. Front up with some independent stats and we can go from there.
     
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  3. I'm a loser baby...

    I'm a loser baby... Immortal

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    As I understand it they're projections, this not a reflection of the actual state of play. And they are old.
    Coronavirus: Sweden's economy hit less hard by pandemic

    https://www.bbc.com/news/business-53664354

    Virus Hit to Sweden’s Economy Seen Among Least Bad in Europe

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...eden-s-economy-seen-among-least-bad-in-europe

    Sweden’s economy shrank less than eurozone’s at height of pandemic

    https://www.ft.com/content/fdb6fbe4-4997-4f35-ba41-06ac2d6fd824


    The Swedish Economic Model
    Stockholm strikes a different balance between virus and GDP.

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-swedish-economic-model-11596673582


    Sweden’s second-quarter GDP fall was its worst in modern history — but outperformed many in Europe

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/05/swe...p-fall-still-outperformed-some-in-europe.html
     
  4. Gronk

    Gronk Moderator Staff Member

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    I think if you're going to be successful in your dedicated attempt to convince anyone that a no lockdown Australia would be markedly better than now, you'll need to compare our economies and the anticipated resilience together with mortality rates. From what I can see we are miles ahead of the Borgs right now.
     
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  5. hindy111

    hindy111 Immortal

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    Sweden have nailed it.
     
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  6. I'm a loser baby...

    I'm a loser baby... Immortal

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    I've never stated that. I think the situation is more complex than lockdown/no lockdown. And Sweden is one example of that. I certainly lean towards their approach over ours but hey, maybe I'm wrong. And I can already see that attempting to convince you of anything different to what you want to believe is a waste of time, but there are others who aren't so stubborn. You also ignore that Sweden doesn't seem to be having a second wave, meaning they have a great deal of immunity, something you wrote off ages ago. That's going to affect how to how their economy goes vs ours in future.
     
  7. Suitman

    Suitman Post Whore

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    What I just don't get with this anti-lockdown argument, is that some think it is ok to sacrifice lives for the good of an economy. IMO, that is completely heartless.

    If this were the case, my parents would probably be dead now, yet mum rang me this afternoon, as she does every Tuesday afternoon, to get my advice on her footy tips for this weeks matches. She's coming 2nd out of 65 in her Aged Care Home. She loves the challenge, it's a further excuse for us to talk more often, and I get to talk to my severely dementia ridden dad as well. We then discuss the matches all weekend as they progress. It is something that is keeping their minds active (as much as possible) and is a contact to the world for them considering the place is in lockdown.

    I just don't get why it is argued that these people should be "sacrificed". And they would be. No question.
     
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  8. Gronk

    Gronk Moderator Staff Member

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    Mate I’m not ignoring anything. Sweden is in recession. Their unemployment has spiked and they have lost circa 5500 lives. Let. It. Go.
     
  9. Gronk

    Gronk Moderator Staff Member

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  10. strider

    strider Post Whore

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    f**k sweden and everyones obsession with comparing them .... there is no comparing. Nothing is the same anywhere ... im talking about australia and people going down a dark place cos of businesses going to the wall, and just general depression cos life goes to poo, etc etc
     
  11. Eelogical

    Eelogical Coach

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    Meanwhile, China be like....... upload_2020-8-11_19-5-5.gif
     
  12. Bandwagon

    Bandwagon Moderator Staff Member

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    The choices are all pretty sucky

    We won't know which ones sucked less for a good many years I reckon.
     
  13. strider

    strider Post Whore

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    I believe you are missing the point entirely .... well my point ... its not necessarily about the economy, its sacrificing one set of lives for another set of lives .... reports are suicide rates are up 14% ... maybe unrelated???
     
  14. I'm a loser baby...

    I'm a loser baby... Immortal

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    Of course their economy took a hit, but are they in recession? And is it as bad or worse than our situation?


    The country's latest quarterly GDP decline was greater than the 3.8 percent drop seen in Q408 during the height of the financial crisis.

    However, Sweden is not currently in a recession. A country is deemed to be in a recession when its economy declines for two consecutive quarters, and Sweden had a GDP growth of 0.1 in Q120.

    https://www.newsweek.com/coronaviru...mestic-product-eurozone-better-europe-1523359
     
  15. Suitman

    Suitman Post Whore

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    Not missing any point mate, and I understand there are consequences on both sides of the argument. Truly, it's all sad, which ever path we take.
     
  16. strider

    strider Post Whore

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    I dont think anyone can ever say .... it is what it is now .... i think our governments are trying their best ... but theres a hidden cost - and i think it goes unnoticed cos the media cant spin it - so it will just get passed over
     
  17. Bandwagon

    Bandwagon Moderator Staff Member

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    The problem with that technical definition of a recession is that you don't know that you're in one, only that you've had one.
     
  18. strider

    strider Post Whore

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    Well i think you should be careful flattly calling people heartless cos they are supposedly prepared to sacrifice lives ... are you heartless cos you are accepting the suicides resulting? ... no i dont think you are, but maybe be careful throwing those comments around
     
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  19. Gronk

    Gronk Moderator Staff Member

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    Yes mental health has deteriorated, but you can’t say that things would better or worse if we did things differently. Financial toll vs high death toll seems to be the options and TBH both are different versions of a shit sandwich.
     
  20. I'm a loser baby...

    I'm a loser baby... Immortal

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    Well if we're going to go down the black and white route then the technical definitions are the ones we should be using. I've seen you argue before that words have meanings and I agree, despite believing this situation to be complex.
     

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