It has indeed. I'd come down to Canberra and consume a few with you over dinner and solve the world's problems, but hey, it's a hell of a place.
Well that's true. I just thought it was obvious that if someone looked at the data they'd see what my point was. And cases are far inferior to deaths. Deaths showed no spike. All over the world we are seeing the same patterns, as in high level of deaths first time around means lower levels later. And the term wave isn't exactly the best either.
Its called a peak within a wave, according to some sections of the media who feel very passionate about these terms, not that I give a shit.
I do not see the virus going. I think it is here forever and will cycle every year. Different strains. People who are fit will survive and are able to keep working and generating money. Older people may survive it 5 or 6 times. But eventualy it will knock you off. Once people are unable to work and just use up resources then I guess they are not good for the system. Does the economy want people living till they are 90? 65 and retire and 75-80 is time to finish up. I wouldn't rule out that this is how its been designed. So sure it may not wipe you out the first time you get it. But eventualy once we work out there is no cure or vaccination people will just go out and live with it.
COVID-19 likely to become 'endemic' like annual flu, says UK Chief Scientist By Latika Bourke Updated October 20, 2020 — 5.39pmfirst published at 11.07am London: Britain's Chief Scientific Adviser warns that COVID-19 will become endemic like the annual flu, despite the possible availability of vaccines by early next year. Speaking to a Commons National Security Strategy Committee in London, Sir Patrick Vallance said the rollout of a successfully trialled vaccine would occur hopefully after the start of the British spring. However, he said these vaccines were unlikely to eradicate the virus. Vallance said it was important to give the public a "realistic picture" of the efficacy of the vaccine, given the average time of making a vaccine "from scratch" is 10 years. "I do think we should not over-promise," he said. "We can't be certain, but I think it's unlikely we will end up with a truly sterilising vaccine, something that completely stops infection, and it's likely this disease will circulate and be endemic. "And this starts to look more like annual flu than anything else and that may be the direction we end up going." Vallance said that, as management and treatments became better, combined with the vaccine, that the chance of infection would reduce as well as its severity. He reminded MPs that there was only one human disease — smallpox — that had truly been eradicated through a vaccine and that it was "a very difficult thing to do". "And it'd never been done before about five years at the very quickest," he said. He said the results of eight vaccine candidates now in phase-three trials would soon be known. "So we will know, I think, over the next few months whether we have any vaccines that really do protect and if so how long they protect for," he said. "And at that point we'll also have a clearer idea of the safety profile of these vaccines and from there and can start looking at what a sensible vaccination strategy could be across the population." Vallance's comments provide a challenge to countries such as Australia and New Zealand. In Australia, last week's federal budget hinged its economic recovery and reopening of international borders on a vaccine coming online next year. This week, the Australian Medical Association warned that it was time to question whether Australia's roadmap for dealing with the pandemic remained "fit for purpose". The AMA is challenging the government's assumption that a population-wide vaccine would be in place next year, cautioning that medical experts believe that "we could be living with the virus for some considerable period of time". Dr Omar Khorshid, the AMA president, said that Australian governments needed to reinforce the need to maintain social distancing rather than allowing life to return to normal because community transmission had been all but eliminated. "While we understand that governments want life to return to normal, this is a risky strategy," Dr Khorshid said. "Instead, Australia needs to learn to live with a sensible set of restrictions for the time being, while we wait for a vaccine and/or better treatments." Dr Khorshid said states such as Western Australia which have dropped restrictions because they are COVID-free were more susceptible to Victorian-style lockdowns because of complacency in the community that could easily see the virus spread again. The British Oxford Vaccine Group's candidate, which would be produced by AstraZeneca, is considered one of the leading candidates. Australia has secured supplies of 34 million doses that would be manufactured in Melbourne. A spokesman for federal Health Minister Greg Hunt said the government has followed the expert health advice from the outset. "[The government] is working with the states and territories through the national cabinet process focussing on a strategy of high testing rates, rapid contact tracing, social distancing and good hygiene to limit the spread of COVID-19," the spokesman said. "The Australian Government has invested over $16.5 billion into the overall health response to COVID-19, which has been targeted and aligned with the health advice to prevent the transmission of COVID-19." https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe...chief-scientist-20201020-p566no.html#comments
Yeh, I think that has always been the most likely outcome. But the (possible) development of partially effective vaccines can slow the rate of transmission in a society to something that is far more manageable than what is happening in some countries at the moment. And of course, treatments will also evolve.
