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Seasons 2020 - 22 COVID-19 discussion thread

Gary Gutful

Immortal
Messages
43,294
i'd 100% agree with that sentiment if we had some surety about the reliability, accuracy integrity of the mortality numbers that get published.
Why would data influence that sentiment? You either believe or you don’t.

Surely a common sense view would suggest that deaths are more important than cases?

How could one possibly argue otherwise?
 
Messages
35,878
How are the deaths looking in highly vaccinated countries? Cases aren’t as important as mortality rates. Or are they? I say that as if that’s a given but I don’t even know where the truth lies anymore.
They seem to be down, compared to the numbers of cases at least. So it looks like they are effective at preventing deaths and hospitalizations. OTOH many places are having huge surges at the wrong time of the year for respiratory diseases, in line with the introduction of the vaccine. So who knows. And all cause mortality not looking so good in many places too.
 

Gary Gutful

Immortal
Messages
43,294
They seem to be down, compared to the numbers of cases at least. So it looks like they are effective at preventing deaths and hospitalizations. OTOH many places are having huge surges at the wrong time of the year for respiratory diseases, in line with the introduction of the vaccine. So who knows. And all cause mortality not looking so good in many places too.
I'm not following (mainly because of your last sentence).

Are deaths lower or higher since vaccination?

Cases seem less relevant (at least to me) if vaccination results in those cases being less problematic overall. Again though, that's my interpretation. Has vaccination resulted in the average case being less problematic or are we still data poor on that issue?
 

Gary Gutful

Immortal
Messages
43,294
I could only imagine the amount of arguing you two would get into.
You aren't very smart. If you were trying to typecast us you would have had us both agreeing with each other and sucking each others c**ks.

Thats where @hineyrulz would have taken it and why he has commanded more respect over the years.
 
Messages
35,878
I'm not following (mainly because of your last sentence).

Are deaths lower or higher since vaccination?

Cases seem less relevant (at least to me) if vaccination results in those cases being less problematic overall. Again though, that's my interpretation. Has vaccination resulted in the average case being less problematic or are we still data poor on that issue?
I'm saying there might be reason to believe that the vaccines are leading to the spread of the virus. And that they or the other interventions like lockdowns or delayed responses to other health issues might be causing excess deaths. Or that maybe some of those excess deaths are due to the vaccines.
BUT, all that aside, they do seem to provide protection from deaths and hospitalizations.
 

Gary Gutful

Immortal
Messages
43,294
I'm saying there might be reason to believe that the vaccines are leading to the spread of the virus. And that they or the other interventions like lockdowns or delayed responses to other health issues might be causing excess deaths. Or that maybe some of those excess deaths are due to the vaccines.
BUT, all that aside, they do seem to provide protection from deaths and hospitalizations.
Cheers mate. Understand that.

Based on everything you've looked at, where has Aus f**ked up? In ideal world, what would success look like when thinking about how a country should combat COVID?

TBH, its a question that someone should have asked you months ago.

EDIT: It was two questions.
 

Happy MEel

First Grade
Messages
7,416
For sure. We open up on October 18 which is a Monday. I am working from home that day which means I'm available. I will see you at one of these fine establishments in Brookie at 9:30am. @HappyMeel would be honoured to shout. We can then cross the road and take a dump on Brookvale Oval because...Manly.

View attachment 53977
I’ll get onto our itinerary @Gary Gutful

We could sample the golden nectar the whole way down the Peninsular from Avalon to Manly.
 

Bandwagon

Moderator
Staff member
Messages
31,140
I'm saying there might be reason to believe that the vaccines are leading to the spread of the virus. And that they or the other interventions like lockdowns or delayed responses to other health issues might be causing excess deaths. Or that maybe some of those excess deaths are due to the vaccines.
BUT, all that aside, they do seem to provide protection from deaths and hospitalizations.

Hypothetically if indeed there is a pattern of increasing excess deaths, why would vaccines be a candidate for leading to spread of the virus?

I think there's a valid argument that more vaxxed = more opening of society = more transmission = more deaths, but vaccines aren't the lead in that equation simply because they allow for the actual cause, which is quite obviously more humans interacting.

You can easily test that by removing vaccination from the equation and getting the same result, ie. more opening of society = more transmission = more deaths.

Where vaccines come into the equation is in how much mitigation do they provide from the former leading to the latter. Which of course is the real question, because there's a certain amount of inbuilt inevitability in the rest of it.
 

Bandwagon

Moderator
Staff member
Messages
31,140
Cheers mate. Understand that.

Based on everything you've looked at, where has Aus f**ked up? In ideal world, what would success look like when thinking about how a country should combat COVID?

TBH, its a question that someone should have asked you months ago.

EDIT: It was two questions.

That's not an easy question to answer without defining what not f**king up looks like long term.

And TBH I don't think we are even close to answering that.

Short term it's easy, medium term ( say a few years ) still not all that difficult, but long term, too many variables, I'd hazard a guess we'll never really know.
 
Messages
35,878
Cheers mate. Understand that.

Based on everything you've looked at, where has Aus f**ked up? In ideal world, what would success look like when thinking about how a country should combat COVID?

TBH, its a question that someone should have asked you months ago.

EDIT: It was two questions.
We should have stuck to our original pandemic guidelines. Like Sweden did. Don't believe the stories about how they did so much worse than the other Nordic countries. In terms of overall health they did well and are now in very good shape.

We shouldn't have done crazy stuff like lockdowns and mask mandates and sat around waiting for the vax. We shouldn't have demonised non vax treatments. We absolutely should have told people about vitamin D at the least. And how to reduce co-morbidities, but the food and pharma industries would make that difficult.
And I don't think we yet have a confirmed case of outdoor transmission, so why we prevent people going outside is ridiculous and counter productive.
 
Messages
35,878
Hypothetically if indeed there is a pattern of increasing excess deaths, why would vaccines be a candidate for leading to spread of the virus?

I think there's a valid argument that more vaxxed = more opening of society = more transmission = more deaths, but vaccines aren't the lead in that equation simply because they allow for the actual cause, which is quite obviously more humans interacting.

You can easily test that by removing vaccination from the equation and getting the same result, ie. more opening of society = more transmission = more deaths.

Where vaccines come into the equation is in how much mitigation do they provide from the former leading to the latter. Which of course is the real question, because there's a certain amount of inbuilt inevitability in the rest of it.
Because of the immuno suppression following the vax, which leads to more likelihood of catching the virus, among other things.
And there are places that the increasing deaths are occurring at the same time as the vax rollout but before any relaxing of restrictions.
 

strider

Post Whore
Messages
72,519
was talking to my neighbour today ... he just got back from queensland - had been ther about 5 weeks ... his dad passed away

I talked to him weeks ago - they had decided to put his dad in palliative care ... was struggling to get an exemption to be allowed up there .... eventually got it after days of tests to prove he wasn't infected - had to fly, not allowed to drive - 14 days quarantine - but there was no chance his dad was gonna survive that long .... so they allowed him to go visit one day - had to put on full PPE - ambulance came and drove him to where his dad was .... when he got there, had to change out of the PPE into, a new set of PPE (wtf?) ... could go to the room where his dad was, but no others allowed in at same time (mum, sister who live in qld) - wasn't allowed to interact with any of them .... had to stand on far side of room from dad (don't wanna give the person about to die the covid you don't have) - dad was unconcious - so it was all kinda pointless anyway

feel sorry for people having to go through this kinda of shit
 
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