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First Grade
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Warriors v Eels Preview
Wednesday, September 5, 2007
http://nrl.com.au/News/Latest/NewsArticle/tabid/76/NewsId/6922/Default.aspx After a worrying six-game losing streak mid-season the Warriors have proven they could indeed be the real deal in 2007, losing just two of their final 12 games to snare fourth place and capture an all-important home qualifying final.
Sure their four-point win over wooden spooners Penrith last week will have plenty raising their eyebrows about their prospects of advancing deep into September but they certainly re-affirmed their credentials a fortnight ago when they trounced the Sea Eagles 36-14 in Auckland.
That game was played in front of a sell-out crowd of 25,070 – a similar figure is guaranteed against the Eels, who will be shivering at the thought of playing one of the most physical and skilled outfits in the comp on their home patch.
Still, the Eels’ 68-22 massacre of the Broncos last week went a long way to restoring confidence after successive losses to the Sharks, Storm and Dragons that saw them relinquish their grip on the top four.
It was the Eels at their absolute best – a brilliant 13-try performance that embarrassed the reigning premiers.
It showed how lethal the blue and golds can be when everything “sticks”; and therein lies the Parramatta conundrum: history has shown that things tend to not stick long enough for them to get the job done at the end of the season. At least recent history does.
The Warriors will sorely miss the imposing presence of winger Manu Vatuvai, who is out for the season after injuring his knee last week; the Eels are injury-free.
Watch out Warriors: The Eels’ back three of Jarryd Hayne, Eric Grothe and Krisnan Inu are playing like runaway trains – they’ve broken 271 tackles between them in 2007.
Dally M Winger of the Year Hayne equalled the NRL record with 18 last week, while Inu made seven.
The Warriors need to stop them early, and shut down the chance of any offloads to set up second-phase play.
Watch out Eels: Former Eel Wade McKinnon has been outstanding in 2007, living up to Phil Gould’s lofty praise that he’s the best support player in the game. But he’s also dynamite in broken play on his own, something chief Eels kicker Tim Smith will need to be mindful of when clearing from his own half.
McKinnon is averaging almost 15 runs for 150 metres a game in 2007, with 20 line breaks (second in the NRL), four line break assists, six try assist, 30 offloads and nine tries.
He’s averaging 12.1 metres returning kicks, just 60cm short of the NRL’s best Karmichael Hunt. He’s also averaging 7.95 tackle breaks a game. Last week against the Panthers he upped the ante, with 22 runs for 169 metres.
Where it will be won: Wide of the ruck. It should be a fast and furious affair, with the Warriors’ 346 offloads the most by any team this year and the Eels’ 300 ranking them fifth.
Key to the Eels’ cricket score last week was their offloading – they made 17 in the game which was five more than their 2007 average.
Meanwhile the Warriors too threw caution to the wind against the Panthers, offloading 18 times (up 3.4 on their season game average).
Both sides have their tackling warhorses – Warrior Michael Luck’s 886 tackles are the second most made in the comp, with Eel Nathan Hindmarsh third with 826 – but it’s their one-on-one tacklers’ abilities to shut down multi-phase play that will be critical.
In this regard the Warriors appear particularly well equipped out wide – centre Simon Mannering leads the comp with 68 while five-eighth Michael Witt has made 55 to rank 13th. Eels centre Ben Smith ranks eighth with 61.
The History: Played 21; Warriors 7, Eels 14. Not a great record for the home side, who have won just two of their past eight games against the Eels – although they did inflict a 34-18 defeat on them in round one in Auckland. But the Eels hold bragging rights, having won 30-6 at Parramatta Stadium in their most recent meeting in round 11.
Conclusion: The Eels will have mixed feelings about having to face the Warriors in semi-finals footy – they have a good record against them and did score their biggest and highest scoring finals win against them – a 56-12 (44-point) hammering in 2001.
But in Auckland it’ll be a different story. It’s likely they’ll stick with their free-flowing brand of play; they are only outside chances of exiting the comp with a loss this week and going into their shells at this stage could prove disastrous as they look to prepare for future finals games.
Meanwhile, it all starts here for the Warriors, who still feel the pain of their four-point deduction for salary cap breaches last year.
They have plenty to prove, are in form and will have a huge home crowd advantage.
With Dally M Captain of the Year Steven Price – the first forward to make more than 4,000 metres in a single season – calling the shots, they may prove too strong.
Match officials: Referee – Tony Archer; Sideline Officials – Steve Chiddy & Tony De Las Heras; Video ref – Bill Harrigan.
Televised: Channel Nine – Delayed 7.00pm; Foxsports 3 – Delayed 10.30pm.
* Statistics: NRL Stats.
Cowboys v Bulldogs Preview
Wednesday, September 5, 2007
http://nrl.com.au/News/Latest/NewsArticle/tabid/76/NewsId/6921/Default.aspx
Talk about déjà vu! The Cowboys enter this round 25 rematch riding a five game streak – the second largest run in their history.
But they know they were lucky to escape with the points last week, with the Dogs storming home from 38-10 behind after Cowboys playmaker Johnathan Thurston was rested with 20 minutes to play.
Thurston’s dominance in that game was magnified when he surprisingly snatched the prestigious Dally M medal from favourite Robbie Farah on Tuesday evening, polling the maximum three votes for his 60-minute effort.
The Belmore boys will have mixed emotions about last week’s result… it was just the Cowboys’ second ever home victory over them, and the Dogs extended their game points average in Townsville to an impressive 30.7.
But they also lost their enforcer Sonny Bill Williams for at least this return game (he fights the grading of his late-tackle charge on Wednesday evening and depending on the outcome will be sidelined for either one or three weeks), while the defeat was also the third-highest losing score in the club’s proud history.
Williams’ absence is offset by the long-awaited return of Mark O’Meley to the engine room.
Watch out Cowboys: Yes the North Queensland outfit has been sparkling in attack but they can’t escape the fact they are the worst defensive side of all the teams left in the premiership race.
They finished the year with a -71 points differential – the only team in the top eight to finish on the wrong side of the ledger.
They conceded 110 tries, with only the Knights and Canberra letting in more, and the Bulldogs showed last week they know how to expose their weaknesses when they warmed late.
One of the visitors’ key plans will be to work their way into the Cowboys’ 10-metre zone, where they will fancy their chances of easy points – the Cowboys have yielded 55 tries from close range.
Watch Corey Hughes call the shots and pick up big boppers Willie Mason and Jarrod Hickey.
Watch out Bulldogs: Four words: Johnathan Thurston, Matt Bowen. People keep waiting for this duo to have an off game but it just hasn’t happened in 2007.
Bowen, named the Dally M Fullback of the Year, has 29 line breaks this season (most in the comp), with 11 line break assists – and was equal top try scorer with 21.
Thurston’s 29 line break assists and 29 try assists are each the most in the comp. They’re electrifying and lift an otherwise modest line-up of talent.
Where it will be won: Look for both sides to play at a furious pace in an attempt to catch the other napping.
Expect plenty of cheap metres out of dummy half through quick play-the-balls – an analysis of last week’s game sheet shows the Cowboys had nine players combine for a total 22 dummy-half runs (including David Faiumu 6, Ty Williams 4, Aaron Payne 3) while the Bulldogs actually outdid the locals with eight players combining for 25 scoots (Corey Hughes 8, Luke Patten, Willie Tonga and Ben Roberts 4 apiece).
That tactic is likely to be the best way to nullify Thurston’s impact (short of an illegal hit, that is); expect Thurston to be “spotted” in defence time and again – a heavy defensive workload can’t help but tire a player out and Steve Folkes would also be acutely aware Thurston misses more tackles than any other Cowboy (average 4.59 per game), with six last week in their total 34 misses.
Unfortunately for the Bulldogs, they missed 45 all up; that pretty much tells the story of last week right there.
The History: Played 22; Cowboys 7, Bulldogs 15. The Cowboys may have won five of the past seven between the two clubs but believe it or not last week’s win was just their second over the Bulldogs once in 10 attempts at Dairy Farmer Stadium.
Conclusion: The loss of Sonny Bill Williams will be huge. While the Dogs aren’t a one-man side by any stretch of the imagination all their runners feed off the potential he brings with the ball in hand.
Williams’ 59 offloads are the second most by any player in the comp and the next Bulldog is the returning Mark O’Meley with 24.
They need Ogre to hit his straps immediately if they’re to fire. With Williams on deck most would have fancied a Bulldogs win here; without him the jury is out.
Match officials: Referee – Shayne Hayne; Sideline Officials – Rod Lawrence & Tony De Las Heras; Video ref – Tim Mander.
Televised: Channel Nine – Live 7.30pm (NSW & Qld); Foxsports 3 – Delayed 11.30pm
* Statistics: NRL Stats.
Sea Eagles v Rabbitohs Preview
Wednesday, September 5, 2007
http://nrl.com.au/News/Latest/NewsArticle/tabid/76/NewsId/6927/Default.aspx
It was just three weeks ago that the Rabbitohs overturned an 18-6 halftime deficit against the Sea Eagles, piling on 18 unanswered points to score a memorable victory – a win that proved the difference between their making the top eight and narrowly missing out.
Buoyed by that they walloped the Wests Tigers 37-12 at Leichhardt the following week; suddenly sceptical supporters realised a finals berth for the first time since 1989 was within reach and maybe, just maybe, this young team could make a dent deep into September.
That all crumbled last week in a poor loss to the Roosters, which has most pundits back at square one pondering: what to make of the Bunnies?
The Sea Eagles have worries of their own. Most uncharacteristic ones. The week after their loss to the Rabbitohs they trailed the Warriors 12-10 at halftime in Auckland before surrendering 24 second-half points.
Then last week, up 28-6 at halftime against the Dragons, they were again outplayed late, yielding 18 points in the final 40 and with the Dragons threatening their line on the siren.
That leaves them with a 4-60 points record from their past three second halves (and 18-92 from their past five games’ second halves).
They’ve lost powerhouse prop Brent Kite to a groin muscle tear; he’s been replaced in the starting line-up by Jason King. Chris Hicks and Steve Menzies return – interestingly Menzies has scored 20 career tries against Souths, his highest total against any team.
The Rabbitohs will lose David Fa’alogo to suspension for his king hit on Braith Anasta last week with Dean Widders, who plays his 150th first grade game here, expected to join the starting line-up.
Watch out Sea Eagles: Souths’ chance hinges on their go-forward. They’re not flash around the ground; instead they rely on pressure from good field position, achieved through quick plays in the forwards and a deep, probing kicking game (Joe Williams averages 299 metres a match).
With everything on the line in this game the Sea Eagles can expect the likes of co-captains Roy Asotasi and Peter Cusack to lead by example. Asotasi ranks second in the NRL for metres gained (3,469) and Cusack sixteenth (2,825).
They’ll rip into the Manly front line like there’s no tomorrow; watch for them to target the likes of captain Matt Orford, who’s missed the most tackles for his side with an average four per game. They need to make a few busts to be in with a show of progressing.
Watch out Rabbitohs: The Sea Eagles have stars all around the park but none is playing better than hooker Michael Monaghan.
Against the Dragons last week he had 87 touches, made 4 runs for 26 metres, 31 tackles, 5 tackle breaks, 2 line breaks, 5 kicks for 196 metres and a 40/20. He also scored two tries out of dummy-half – he’ll be wise to try that again against the big Souths forwards.
Where it will be won: The Sea Eagles will have too much firepower for the Bunnies – at least that’s what the statistics scream.
Souths have trouble scoring points, clicking over just 17 a game in 2007 – the fewest of any team.
They’ve also scored the fewest tries (61), missed the most tackles (622) and broken the line the fewest times (2.96 a game). And only two sides have fewer than their 774 broken tackles.
While that sounds bad enough on its own, let’s examine their opponents: they’ve made the most average metres of any team (404), are third for kick metres (623), have broken the most tackles (1,078), rank second for offloads, have had to effect the second fewest tackles per game (285) and have missed the fourth fewest tackles (734).
Their 105 tries and 24.9 points average ranks them second to the Storm. They’ve also won 11 of their past 13 matches under lights.
The History: Played 118; Sea Eagles 64, Rabbitohs 54. The Sea Eagles have won five of the past eight but are still smarting from their round 23 loss at Telstra Stadium.
The Rabbitohs have a fair record at Brookvale Oval, winning 19 of 47 clashes but haven’t won there since 2004. “Fortress Brookvale” was also the scene of their biggest loss to Manly – a 54-0 drubbing in 1975.
Conclusion: Des Hasler will be expecting a win in his 100th first grade game as a coach. Bank on the home side to get on the scoreboard first – Steve Matai’s sixth-minute four-pointer against the Dragons was the 15th consecutive time they’ve drawn first blood. And there’s a fair chance the honour will fall to flying fullback Brett Stewart – he’s scored 38 tries from 41 appearances at Brookvale.
Match officials: Referee – Shayne Hayne; Sideline Officials – Rod Lawrence & Russell Turner; Video ref – Tim Mander.
Televised: Channel Nine – Live 8.30pm; Foxsports 3 – Delayed 2.30am.
* Statistics: NRL Stats.
Storm v Broncos Preview
Wednesday, September 5, 2007
http://www.nrl.com/News/Latest/NewsArticle/tabid/76/NewsId/6934/Default.aspx
It’s expected the horse will be put out of its misery this weekend – the reigning premiers the Broncos euthanased in their 500th premiership game by the current minor premiers the Storm.
Severely under-strength Brisbane appear to be drawing their final breaths after being belted 68-22 by the Eels last week. It was their fifth loss from their past seven games, and a game where they lost even more firepower for the season in teenage star Dave Taylor, who joins Darren Lockyer, Brent Tate, Karmichael Hunt, Shaun Berrigan and David Stagg on the injured list.
Adding to their woes is the fact hard man Tonie Carroll and Dally M Centre of the Year Justin Hodges are in serious doubt.
The Broncos can ill afford Hodges’ absence – and not just for his playing skills. In their last meeting in round 22, a 14-6 win to the Storm in Melbourne, Hodges managed to unsettle the home side with some dedicated niggling tactics, directed in particular at centre Matt King.
While Brisbane didn’t win the game, the tactic definitely unsettled Melbourne’s rhythm and allowed the Broncos to stay in touch. No doubt Wayne Bennett will probably be looking to “niggle” again in this clash, given how hopelessly outgunned his charges appear.
And the Broncos need Hodges’ contribution if they are to be half a chance here – in a hopelessly beaten side last week he still managed 7 runs for 117 metres and 10 tackle breaks – in just 48 minutes of game time.
What can you say about the Storm? They’ve won 12 of their past 13 games – some of them “ugly” but wins nonetheless – to rightfully command $1.13 favouritism.
Watch out Storm: There’s a fine line between genius and failure – the Storm have been getting the desired results all season but a look at the stats shows they can flirt with disaster at times.
Their average game completion rate of 73.8 per cent places them middle of the pack in the NRL while their 12.42 errors per game ranks them tenth. Flustering them into errors and turnovers is the key.
Watch out Broncos: Expect another huge game from Dally M Rookie of the Year Israel Folau, who crossed once last week to finish the season tied with Matt Bowen as top tryscorer on 21.
Now in the centres, Folau is an integral part of the Storm’s lethal fringe attack, which is the most potent in the comp – they’ve scored 51 tries down their left-hand side and 40 down the right, conceding just 40 in the process.
Where it will be won: Clinical execution – the Storm are in the mood to stop their opponents in their tracks while gaining as much territory as they can.
Last week they limited the Titans to just 1,120 metres while advancing 1,652 themselves. That’s not comforting news for the Broncos, who aside from the Gold Coast concede more metres than any other club, at an average of 1,421 per game.
And if the Broncos are to have any chance they’ll need to improve their tackle effectiveness – they currently have the worst rate in the NRL, with almost one in every five attempted tackles (18 per cent) missed or ineffective.
Their worst offenders Shane Perry, Ian Lacey, Greg Eastwood and even Justin Hodges need to lift.
The History: Played 21; Storm 11, Broncos 9, drawn 1. The Storm have won six of the past eight games but the Broncos won the one that mattered – a 15-8 victory in last year’s grand final.
The Storm holds a commanding grip on clashes at Olympic park, winning five of the seven played there – including their biggest ever win – 50-4 in 2005.
Conclusion: Last week Melbourne became the first team since the Broncos in 2000 to go undefeated at home throughout the regular season.
Expect them to notch another one up here; it will signal the end of a brave Broncos’ campaign – and only the second time in Wayne Bennett’s first grade coaching career that his side has finished with more losses than victories.
Match officials: Referee – Steve Clark; Sideline Officials – Steve Carrall & Steve Lyons; Video ref – Chris Ward.
Televised: Channel Nine – Live 4.00pm; Foxsports 3 – Delayed 6.00pm.
* Statistics: NRL Stats.
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