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Team list Tuesday: Rnd 12 vs Bunnies

Gronk

Moderator
Staff member
Messages
65,522
If Souths have been so shit and we are so great, why are they favourites?

I’m no gambler, but aren’t these odds a reflection of the book held for this game, rather than what the bookies think will win ?

B50CE71C-F9C8-4D9D-A3E0-FA0ABE3D86CC.jpeg

Because those odds don’t exactly mirror these tips.

upload_2021-5-28_19-3-42.png
 

Poupou Escobar

Post Whore
Messages
73,468
Why not try evidence-based planning? It's fun.
Assumptions require evidence. The difference is that assumption-based planning recognises that the available evidence might not accurately reflect reality. Like the opposite of the turkey whose confidence increases daily that the farmer is just a top bloke who does nothing but bring it food.
 

Poupou Escobar

Post Whore
Messages
73,468
If we’re serious on form we should do a job on them
Don't worry too much about form. It can turn around in an instant. Best metric is to compare the teams on paper. There's no guarantees, but the better team (on paper) is usually the better team on the day.
 

TheRam

Coach
Messages
11,648
It's not about whether their coaching decisions are right or wrong, it's about probability and risk. Every decision they make could go either way. It's about getting more successes than failures over a given timeline. If something goes wrong it's not that the coach didn't know it could go wrong. The alternative decisions also could've failed, maybe worse. And after the fact smartarse fans with no skin in the game pretend they know better.


Classic arse speak. Boy can you pile it on. You would make a great board room analyst, or better still bullsh*t artist...oh wait.
 

TheRam

Coach
Messages
11,648
I dont understand the crazy perception on this game. We've played 2 bad games all year.

Souths have conceded in the last 4 weeks more points than we conceded in the first 10.

It amazes me that we are strong outsiders with the betting agencies. Even Daley on the Matty Johns Show who gives the tab odds said it should be the other way around.

We've only started 2 games this season prior to this as outsiders - Storm and Canberra - and we won both.

Irrelevant. We played a Storm that was down on troupes(especially Harry) on a wet track which suits us the slower team. And as for Canberra, no one was to know at the time how they were imploding from within and how bad they were going to be.

The problem is that we keep losing way more then we win against teams that aim up against us that have a decent roster. We don't seem to know how to score points in the good ball side of the field when a team is defending well.

Until that changes on a regular basis, most of the public, analysts, and us fans, will always think we can be beaten when we play a strongly in form team or a top 5-6 team.

I for one thought that we may have turned the corner on this, but after witnessing last week, we have not. It was one game, that repeated the cycle of so many others over the last 10+ years.

Like I said, until we start beating teams like Bunnies, Panthers, Roosters, Manly and Storm, when they are at full strength regularly, then the doubt and criticism will continue. The only way I can see us being consistently better then these sides, with the halves we have committed to is speed out wide. At least speed out wide changes things and makes a half chance a full chance. At the moment our half chances against these teams end up almost always 0 chances when the game is on the line.

Look at the brilliant Cowboys v Warriors game last night. All second half I kept screaming at the tele, they need to find a way to bring the Hammer into the game. For the entire 1st half he was basically unsighted and the same thing was happening in the second half. I couldn't believe that their playmakers were not working out ways to give him the ball with one on one opportunities. Hell he just wasn't getting the ball at all and the couple of times he did they were basically hitup like carries. That is not how you play a Ferrari. Then FINALLY, he moved to the wing and they put on the spread. Well as they say in the classics, game over man. He turned that miniscule half chance into game set and match, field goal pending.

Speed is your friend, unless you don't have any.

We really need someone like X. Savage in our backline to give us that type of X factor.
 

Glenneel

Bench
Messages
2,881
Well tell them that Pou says that they are all wrong and that he believes that it is actually the entire teams fault, not Waqa's. They are the ones that are letting Waqa down by their inability to make his tackles for him. If they don't get their collective sh*t together this week, he will recommend BA drops all of them to NSW cup and give some new young blood a go.

In Pou we trust.
If we trusted Pou we'd still have Mannah and Alvaro as our starting props, based on his stats amongst the best in the game.
 

TheRam

Coach
Messages
11,648
If we trusted Pou we'd still have Mannah and Alvaro as our starting props, based on his stats amongst the best in the game.


It's hysterical isn't it? He is right up the with Hasler when Hasler lost the plot with all his over the top analysis and thought that Tolman was the best prop in the game. The poor mad professor couldn't see the forest for the trees at that point.

Stats are great and necessary, but common sense needs to be present when assessing them.

Pou misses this small but vital ingredient.
 

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