Wait until the last? That's stupid': Secrets of rugby league's field goal revealed
Ten years ago this September, Jamie Soward crushed Wests Tigers fans with a drop goal late in the preliminary final.
It put his Dragons into a grand final they would claim easily for the club's first and only premiership since the Steelers merger.
While the Dragons of 2020 limp along, the 2010 incarnation was something altogether different.
That field goal was the decisive moment in the run to the premiership, and was one of the biggest one-pointers in NRL history.
How it came together reveals much about the science of the field goal.
The scores were locked at 12-12 in the 73rd minute: nightfall, if field goals were vampires.
Soward remembers staying out of the preceding tackles to calm his nerves and clear his mind.
He directs his forwards down the middle, in preparation for the attempt.
On the last, standing deep, he receives the ball. A crisp strike. One point secured. The lead won.
"If you watch that 2010 field goal," he recollects, "there is no way that anyone is getting to me before I get a clean shot."
"The pass from Nathan Fiend is about 17 or 18 metres and it's right on the money."
An unusual success
As one of the greatest field goal proponents in rugby league history, Soward knows what he's talking about.
But for an ordinary NRL kicker, that attempt was an unusual success.
According to analysis of more than 700 field-goal attempts in the NRL since 2013, typically fewer than two out of five are successful.
Location of all NRL field goal attempts since 2013.(Source: NRL.Com Stats)
On the last tackle, the success rate drops to under one in three.
And from where Soward was, 34 metres out, the rate drops by half again.
One in six, if he's lucky.
History of the field goal
Rugby league's rule makers decided to limit the number of tackles in a set during the 1960s.
They didn't realise they would create a new football superweapon.
Eric Simms, South Sydney's accomplished fullback became an even more potent attacking force.
He kicked 29 field goals in 1968, then valued at two points a piece.
His impact, along with peers such as Barry Glasgow and Phillip Hawthorne, was so great that another rule change was quickly implemented.
And so in 1971, the modern field goal — worth a single point — was born.
Field position versus tackle count
While kickers generally launch drop-outs at least 50 metres, their success at field goals drops off a cliff beyond 30 metres out.
And the position of the preceding play-the-ball is the major factor.
Relatively few field goals have been kicked when the play-the-ball is outside the 20-metre line.
But Soward himself said he was reluctant to go too close.
Jamie Soward retired in 2016 having kicked 26 field goals.(AAP: Brendan Esposito)
"What happens is, in the heat of the moment, referees are trying to watch for so many things, and when you're in close it means you've got defenders coming from outside in," he said.
Grouping play-the-balls into roughly 4-square-metre clumps demonstrates how often teams will set up around the 15m, to the left of the posts, for a right-footed kicker.
Location of all play the balls prior to field goal attempts since 2013.(Source: NRL.Com Stats)
It also reveals evidence that kicks from play-the-balls between 10 and 20 metres out, directly in front, are less successful.
The best of the best
Just five players have averaged at least a 50 per cent success rate across attempts since 2013.
James Maloney, who left the NRL to play in Europe at the end of last season, maintained that rate over more than 30 attempts, far higher than the others.
Success rate (%) Attempts Makes, metres out (ave.) Misses, metres out (ave.)
Johnathan Thurston 59 22 22.2 24.4
Chad Townsend 56 18 20.7 27.9
James Maloney 53 34 20.5 30.8
Trent Hodkinson 53 19 21.4 26.1
Sam Williams 50 12 14.6 28.9
Anthony Milford 48 29 24.4 31.8
Matt Moylan 47 17 22.9 31.4
Shaun Johnson 45 29 21.2 25.3
Daly Cherry-Evans 44 39 21.9 29.8
Adam Reynolds 41 41 24.2 34.3
Josh Reynolds 38 13 26.4 26.7
Aidan Sezer 36 25 18.3 28.4
Luke Brooks 36 11 21.1 26.3
Cooper Cronk 35 37 22.2 27.7
Benji Marshall 35 20 16.5 37.5
Gareth Widdop 35 17 17.1 33
Jamie Soward 33 15 32.6 37
Mitchell Moses 32 19 24.6 30.7
Mitchell Pearce 26 23 25.4 27
Ashley Taylor 18 17 27.9 30.3
Todd Carney 18 11 20.4 35.1
Jarrod Mullen 9 11 20 46.2
Ben Hunt 7 14 22.9 32.9
Source: NRL.com Stats; 2013 to round 5, 2020; minimum 10 attempts.
Of today's players, Soward rates the best game managers as the best field-goal kickers, and singled out Maloney and Daly Cherry-Evans as standouts.
"The best are the guys that understand how to put their teams in position, and usually come up with the play," he said.
Field goals of the future
Promising Panthers' five-eighth Matt Burton bounced back earlier this season after his infamous second game, in which he missed five field-goal shots.
Soward believes Burton will become a better player than he ever was, but the former Panthers five-eighth got itchy field-goal feet watching the misses.
Matt Burton missed 5 field goal attempts against Newcastle.(Gfycat)
"I don't want to be harsh on him but I thought his ruck recognition on one of the sets was poor," Soward said.
"They made a break, and he had the perfect time with a retreating defence, to be able to step up and take it.
"Again, the misconception of 'I have to be back 25 metres' and all this stuff … you go on the quickest possible play-the-ball."
Soward, who now records a podcast with former Sydney Swan Nick Davis, is happy to share his knowledge gleaned across 26 field goals.
But he cautions against others copying the approach to his famous 2010 attempt precisely.
"In 2010, how far back I was didn't matter because I was at the top of my game, but there are times where you need a little bit closer, and to generate play-the-ball speed, someone carrying the ball with a bit of footwork.
"Sometimes you don't always have to get a deep pass back, you can step up and take it when no-one's expecting it."
And he's clearest on one point.
"Kids these days thinking they have to wait to the last? That's stupid."
Posted Yesterday, updated Yesterday
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06...field-goal-tips-secrets-jamie-soward/12371212
