Tigers and Manly more likely premiers than the Storm

[BunniesMan]

Yeah somehow I don't think the Tigers are more likely premiers than Melbourne...

 

[StormHi]

Sound logic? So you're telling me that missing Cronk, Slater and Smith won't have a negative effect on the team?

Had no effect on the Storms winning ways last year.... Unlike the Donkeys the Storm seem to have a good fallback plan for origin time. So yeah your logic is pretty flawed mate.

 

[derp]

Souths have got this

 

[Someone]

The hard part for melb isnt getting to september. its winning those last 3 or 4 games. too early yet though.

 

[Beachy Eagle]

Melbourne are as class above at the moment.... along way back n Brisbane and then miles and miles to the rest
BUT there is a long way to go

 

[BigRedV]

Wow. Screw form, what exactly about the tigers roster screams premiership at you? I can understand the benji fanboys believeing the hype, and i can understand the telecrap wanting to sell papers, but aside from those two, why would anyone believe the tigers are a better shot than the storm.
And yes they may suffer through/after origin, but hate to break it ya, its not the first time the magnificent 3 have played origin.

 

[I Bleed Maroon]

The Tigers are more likely to win the Premiership at this stage then the Storm.....

Where the f**k do people get this stupid arse logic from?

 

[johns_reds]

Had no effect on the Storms winning ways last year.... Unlike the Donkeys the Storm seem to have a good fallback plan for origin time. So yeah your logic is pretty flawed mate.

I think u will find with no lockyer we'll go alright during origin, we'll lose a few forwards and a centre but the rest of the line up will be nearly full strength

 

[wibble]

Realistically, I think a team will need to top 4 this year to have a shot at the finals- the new system is pretty tough on 5-8. On the other hand, it is nearly the same for 1-4, so any of the top 4 are a big chance. To make the top 4 you will probably need 15 wins (14 got you there in 2009).

With byes, teams have 19 matches left, 6 of which at most, will be directly Origin affected (but likely less for each team) and 1 affected by the Test match.

To top 4, Melbourne would probably need to win 9 of their remaining 19- or just under 50% of their remaining games. Anything could happen, but it seems unlikely they'll lose more than half of their remaining games.

Manly would need 13 of 19, but most of those at home, though without some players for a while yet- doesn't seem impossible.

Tigers need 14 of 19 and have some injuries also- but they could easily string 5 or 6 wins together at some point and make the equation easier at the end.

Only the Storm really have any sort of "buffer" and as the ladder is a zero sum game, any team can control their own destiny and win if good enough from this far out. Building momentum for the finals is important, though how important with the new finals system remains to be seen. I'm not convinced a team can sneak into 5-6 on 4 or 5 wins and use that to roll through to the GF any more, but we will see.

I don't think the Storm really "peak" at all over the last 5 or so years- just play consistently all year. Bennett teams definitely peak, and how he times that has a great effect on the competition- maybe Newcastle can run into 4th over the last 8 weeks and win?

 

[Disco]

The Tigers are more likely to win the Premiership at this stage then the Storm.....

Where the f**k do people get this stupid arse logic from?

Ha, i think you are missing the point, this post has little to do with the premiership credentials of either the Tigers or Manly.

More so to do with the school of though that the Storm will be unable to maintain the blistering start they have had, and could very well find themselves vulnerable late in the year as other teams peak.

Essentially im saying March form equates to little.

Of course, as has been mentioned, everyone would rather be 5-0 rather than 1-4, but the Saints looked just as strong last year and it mattered little when it counted.


Its a long season

 

[StormHi]

I think u will find with no lockyer we'll go alright during origin, we'll lose a few forwards and a centre but the rest of the line up will be nearly full strength

Wasnt reffering to this year bud I meant last year Sorry for the confusion I actually think you guys will hardly suffer a bump in the road come Origin Time (Look how well you guys have covered for YohYeh great depth at the broncs atm (Still hate you lot tho haha)

 

[StormHi]

Ha, i think you are missing the point, this post has little to do with the premiership credentials of either the Tigers or Manly.

More so to do with the school of though that the Storm will be unable to maintain the blistering start they have had, and could very well find themselves vulnerable late in the year as other teams peak.

Essentially im saying March form equates to little.

Of course, as has been mentioned, everyone would rather be 5-0 rather than 1-4, but the Saints looked just as strong last year and it mattered little when it counted.


Its a long season

In saying that I think the storm would have beaten any of the other teams other then the Warriors in that Semi Final game in fact I remember saying to my dad at the time f**k I hope the warriors dont beat the tigers. Warriors are deadset Storms Boogie side come finals footy

 

[I Bleed Maroon]

Ha, i think you are missing the point, this post has little to do with the premiership credentials of either the Tigers or Manly.

More so to do with the school of though that the Storm will be unable to maintain the blistering start they have had, and could very well find themselves vulnerable late in the year as other teams peak.

Essentially im saying March form equates to little.

Of course, as has been mentioned, everyone would rather be 5-0 rather than 1-4, but the Saints looked just as strong last year and it mattered little when it counted.


Its a long season

A long season it might be, but the Tigers have paved themselves a long road back to the top, and their lineup for the next few games isn't pretty for them.

 

[firechild]

Manly certainly aren't looking like a premiership threat at the moment but with Stewart, T-Rex, Matai, Galuvao, Lyon and Foran all spending time on the sidelines (or playing injured) it's not surprising they've dropped a few games. Keep in mind they've only conceded more tries than they've scored once so far, 2 games have been decided by goals so win's haven't been out of reach. Their biggest loss was by 11 points. Manly's 2nd row is one of their key strengths and recently instead of Watmough, Stewart and T-Rex they've had Watmough, Buhrer and Harrison. Buhrer's good but not in the same class as Stewart and Harrison has had almost no impact, especially when compared to T-Rex. They could string together 6 wins starting this week or they could win 3 and lose 3, it's hard to tell what's going to happen.

 

[Gmac]

Word going around that now Foran and B Stewart are out for a few weeks also. If that is the case we are well and truly f**ked.

No side can sustain the injuries and suspensions we have this year and still be on top. That's why all this talk about who is going to win the comp in April is so stupid. What is happening to us could happen to anyone.

 

[BigRedV]

Ha, i think you are missing the point, this post has little to do with the premiership credentials of either the Tigers or Manly.

More so to do with the school of though that the Storm will be unable to maintain the blistering start they have had, and could very well find themselves vulnerable late in the year as other teams peak.

Essentially im saying March form equates to little.

Of course, as has been mentioned, everyone would rather be 5-0 rather than 1-4, but the Saints looked just as strong last year and it mattered little when it counted.


Its a long season

Very different scenario. The Saints were on a high after achieving their sole goal the year before. Once that high wore off, they showed that the drive wasn't there when the going got tough through and post origin.

The Storm have plenty of motivation this year, after not getting there last year and after having the titles stripped.
From what i've seen this year so far, they don't look like they're spent after every game, so i reckon there's heaps more where this is coming from. (Unfortunately )

 

[Earl]

Melbourne wont lose a another game unitll 2014

 

[Sea_Eagles_Rock]

Melbourne wont lose a another game unitll 2014

I'll take them for 2 loses in a row this year. They won't lose many, but I don't think they have actually had a real competition chance yet. Maybe the Roosters or the Raiders... Maybe. Rabbits, Titans and Knights are the others and I don't see them winning the title. 3 of the 5 games have been at home too.

I see the middle period as the area you will fall back a bit.
12 Broncos H
13 Warriors A
14 Tigers H
15 Manly A
16 Dogs A

I think the 15/16 rounds will be in Perth and Adelaide though. So that may save you.

 

[StormHi]

I see the Warriors and Funnily enough the Tigers being the two biggest issues in that period. (Even when the Broncs had Locky the Storm has had their measure I Havnt seen anything from this year that would dispute that) Manly well Manly you can add to the Warriors and Tigers lol Bulldogs are meh They barely handled the titans IMO (wasnt impressed with their win at all) Why this concern about the Storms away games we have never struggled with travel before and all of a sudden this year its gonna be a concern??

Just a little perplexed by the logic I guess.

 

[ceagle]

Word going around that now Foran and B Stewart are out for a few weeks also. If that is the case we are well and truly f**ked.

No side can sustain the injuries and suspensions we have this year and still be on top. That's why all this talk about who is going to win the comp in April is so stupid. What is happening to us could happen to anyone.

Foran most likely to play this week, Stewart is fine.