The reason why they aren't as much of a challenge this year is that the replacements for last seasons graduates aren't as effective.
Mark Nichols and Sam Mataora might be solid and consistent, but both lack the dominance of Fensom and Thompson. Sam Williams lacks the control and composure of Matt Smith. Mark Appleton and Mitchell Kennedy lack the workrate that Nick Skinner and Andrew Edwards provided week to week.
Last year --- this year:
1. Dugan --- Hodge (Dugan was promoted to first grade fairly early on)
2. Naughton --- Naughton
3. Vidot/Carney --- Vidot (Cullen, now that Vidot is a first grade regular)
4. Croker --- Low
5. Brophy/Low --- Ward
6. Picker --- Picker (Smart, when Picker is selected for Souths Logan)
7. Smith --- Williams
8. Skinner --- Appleton
9. Waddell --- Waddell
10. Britt --- Britt
11. Thompson --- Nichols
12. J Kennedy --- J Kennedy
13. Fensom --- Mataora
14. Dunn --- McIlwrick
15. Edwards --- M Kennedy
16. Merritt --- Merritt
17. Rheinberger/Codyre --- Rheinberger
As you can see, in most replacements, there is a loss of consistency and workrate, the most obvious ones being Fenson for Mataora, Thompson for Nichols, Skinner for Appleton, Edwards for Kennedy, and Smith for Williams. And that is no offense to Mataora, Appleton, Kennedy or Williams, it is just that the standard set by the others last year is very high.
Hayden Hodge isn't as good as Dugan but is still a freakish talent, McIlwrick offers more spark off the bench than Dunn in my opinion, and Matt Ward is having far more success than Brophy did at U20s level, but that is about it really. Canberra were bound to not do as well this year without Fenson, Croker, Thompson, Carney, Skinner, Dugan and, Smith.
