I think it's a race in 5, though the Cowboys chances obviously depend on Thurston.
The Warriors are too incosistent, ditto Penrith and the Tigers, Newcastle have had a season long injury crisis, Souffs are a joke, Cronulla don't have the firepower, the Dogs have proven to be a mirage, and Easts, Parra, Canberra, and the Titans are write-offs.