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Will we make the top 4?

lucablight

Bench
Messages
4,199
While we are currently sitting comfortably in the top 4 at the moment if we take a look at the draw for the rest of the season you will find that we have the hardest remaining draw out of all the teams that are competing for the top 4. If we want to get there then we will certainly have to earn it. We have the Panthers twice, Storm, Rabbitohs, Roosters and Sea Eagles. That’s just brutal. Judging by what we have seen so far what are everyone’s thoughts on how we’ll fare? Will we be able to rise to the occasion and beat some of the top teams and establish ourselves as contenders or will we fizzle out and show that we can’t match it with the heavy weights?
 

strider

Post Whore
Messages
72,326
While we are currently sitting comfortably in the top 4 at the moment if we take a look at the draw for the rest of the season you will find that we have the hardest remaining draw out of all the teams that are competing for the top 4. If we want to get there then we will certainly have to earn it. We have the Panthers twice, Storm, Rabbitohs, Roosters and Sea Eagles. That’s just brutal. Judging by what we have seen so far what are everyone’s thoughts on how we’ll fare? Will we be able to rise to the occasion and beat some of the top teams and establish ourselves as contenders or will we fizzle out and show that we can’t match it with the heavy weights?
No doubt its gonna be tough.
Injuries always play a role ... for us and opposition.

If we have a good record in that run, then it would do alot for our confidence going into the finals. I dont mean win them all, but be win more than half and be competative in the ones we lose. Winning finals will come from a good run the last 5 or so weeks of the season.

Im gonna take a leaf out of all the overly optimistic f**kers at work who kiss the bosses ass when asked if we can get a project done on time and say ...

f**k yeah!!!
 

King-Gutho94

Juniors
Messages
707
If we can win all our home games and jag one upset away from home out of the Panthers, Roosters, Manly, Storm games. Should be enough.

That roosters game at SCG is the one could be the key as they are our closest competitor atm outside the 4. Its a 4 point swing depending if we win that game.
 

hindy111

Immortal
Messages
41,104
If we can win all our home games and jag one upset away from home out of the Panthers, Roosters, Manly, Storm games. Should be enough.

That roosters game at SCG is the one could be the key as they are our closest competitor atm outside the 4. Its a 4 point swing depending if we win that game.

That and Manly away. I feel Manly will only drop 1 or 2. They have a far easier run home then we do.
 

eels_fan

Bench
Messages
4,978
I think as a supporter base we largely still have this negative/loser perception of our team. We look at the draw through jaded glasses.

The other teams are looking at us as well thinking "gee's we have to play Parra, that will be tough"

We're a top 4 team. Have been for the best part of 2 whole seasons now.

We have a pretty solid buffer on the roosters and manly considering Roosters already have 2 pts from the bye.

We should go into every remaining game apart from panthers and storm as favourites, and realistically we should win all those games. Injuries and suspensions will play the biggest part in that. If Reed is back in 3 weeks, and we keep the spine healthy through the rest of the season, i wouldnt be surprised if we finish top 2 (Even though most of you would have everyone believe we are miles behind those 2 currently).
 
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hindy111

Immortal
Messages
41,104
Finishing 4th and losing wouldn't be worse thing. A home game against anyone bar Manly and I would back us. Unsure why you want to finish 5th. Always a chance things go wrong and are gone first week. Finish 4th and always a chance things go right and get the next week off.

I also feel like if we finished 4th we would have no pressure. Expected to lose. We could go in and just throw caution into the wind. Chuck the ball round and hope it comes off. It may just. Luck perhaps would be on our side. I wouldn't expect to win but I wouldn't go I to the game thinking we are zero chance. Anything can happen in a game of sport. They could cop a bad injury, a send off. Or we could just run hot.


Finish 5th and we would have a tonne of pressure and be playing our normal safe structures through the whole finals. And hard tough games.
 

hindy111

Immortal
Messages
41,104
I find manly odd ... they can be devastating, but then they also put in shit efforts every so often

Yeah I just look at players to come back. Schuster,Alioi,Sironen, Gosiekwski.... They have had to deal with injuries all year. Never had their best side. Always had atleast 3 or 4 out.
Penrith have had their best 17 most weeks. We've had close to our best every week also. But never our best. Always atleast 1 put.
Storm have dealt with heaps of injuries. They are the team to beat.
Souths have been relatively fit of late. They will be strong also.
 

Gazzamatta

First Grade
Messages
8,696
That and Manly away. I feel Manly will only drop 1 or 2. They have a far easier run home then we do.
Manly didn't look too good in the first half against The Mighty Tits last week and in the second half The Tits refused to tackle.
 

Gazzamatta

First Grade
Messages
8,696
I think as a supporter base we largely still have this negative/loser perception of our team. We look at the draw through jaded glasses.

The other teams are looking at us as well thinking "gee's we have to play Parra, that will be tough"

We're a top 4 team. Have been for the best part of 2 whole seasons now.

We have a pretty solid buffer on the roosters and manly considering Roosters already have 2 pts from the bye.

We should go into every remaining game apart from panthers and storm as favourites, and realistically we should win all those games. Injuries and suspensions will play the biggest part in that. If Reed is back in 3 weeks, and we keep the spine healthy through the rest of the season, i wouldnt be surprised if we finish top 2 (Even though most of you would have everyone believe we are miles behind those 2 currently).
I watched the South's semi again. Takarangi, pre Storm Gennings, Dunsters first game, Stone, Jane Evans, Dill Smith, Davey. At full strength this current team sh*ts all over that one. Add Kaufusi, Ice, Lussick, Niukore, Semi and Oppy.
Let's go boys.
 

Gronk

Moderator
Staff member
Messages
60,764
I watched the South's semi again. Takarangi, pre Storm Gennings, Dunsters first game, Stone, Jane Evans, Dill Smith, Davey. At full strength this current team sh*ts all over that one. Add Kaufusi, Ice, Lussick, Niukore, Semi and Oppy.
Let's go boys.
Not only that, our kicking game is better and (because of that) we no longer struggle to get out of our end.
 

Gazzamatta

First Grade
Messages
8,696
Not only that, our kicking game is better and (because of that) we no longer struggle to get out of our end.
Gutho had a stormer. Reg and Jnr were enormous even allowing for the huge minutes they both played. The Bunny's first try in their comeback was a direct result of utter f'n laziness from Evans and Stone. BA took off Nrown, Reg and Jnr at the same time. F'n madness. So many poor mistakes from players and coach. Hopefully it was a learning experience.
 

Poupou Escobar

Post Whore
Messages
67,534
Finishing 4th and losing wouldn't be worse thing. A home game against anyone bar Manly and I would back us. Unsure why you want to finish 5th. Always a chance things go wrong and are gone first week. Finish 4th and always a chance things go right and get the next week off.

I also feel like if we finished 4th we would have no pressure. Expected to lose. We could go in and just throw caution into the wind. Chuck the ball round and hope it comes off. It may just. Luck perhaps would be on our side. I wouldn't expect to win but I wouldn't go I to the game thinking we are zero chance. Anything can happen in a game of sport. They could cop a bad injury, a send off. Or we could just run hot.


Finish 5th and we would have a tonne of pressure and be playing our normal safe structures through the whole finals. And hard tough games.
The upside of finishing 4th over 5th is that if you play in week 2 (because you lost in week 1) you're playing at home.
 

TheParraboy

Moderator
Staff member
Messages
58,496
The upside of finishing 4th over 5th is that if you play in week 2 (because you lost in week 1) you're playing at home.

Either way will be hard, we need to win in week 2 to put some demons to rest


Finishing 5th, get home game straight up, and should dispose of who finished 8th
Then most likey a game in Sydney against Souths or Roosters (losers in week 1) in week 2


Finish 4th we most likely play Storm week one, lose that, then week two could face Manly or Roosters at Bankwest Stadium?

Ideally finishing top 4 and winning in week one hopefully happens, would be massive and something we havent done since 2001
 

Poupou Escobar

Post Whore
Messages
67,534
Either way will be hard, we need to win in week 2 to put some demons to rest


Finishing 5th, get home game straight up, and should dispose of who finished 8th
Then most likey a game in Sydney against Souths or Roosters (losers in week 1) in week 2


Finish 4th we most likely play Storm week one, lose that, then week two could face Manly or Roosters at Bankwest Stadium?

Ideally finishing top 4 and winning in week one hopefully happens, would be massive and something we havent done since 2001
*2005
 

Bandwagon

Moderator
Staff member
Messages
30,704
The draw for the other teams looking at a top four spot isn't that far away from ours in terms of playing the other contenders.

Roosters have - Storm , Eels , Panthers , Rabbits

Rabbits have - Eels , Panthers, Roosters

Smugfers have - Eels, Storm, Roosters, Rabbits, Eels

Storm have - Roosters, Panthers, Manly, Eels

Manly only have the Storm and us. So the easier of the draws here.

Because there is so many games here between the contenders, winning a couple will make a shit ton of difference to our chances, as would say the Storm and the Panthers continuing on their form to date, because whilst that may mean us losing, it also means the other teams competing for 3rd and 4th also drop games, so it's kinda a zero sum game.

Also it's worth noting the teams below us in Rabbits, Roosters and Manly have had their bye, so there's two points we are guaranteed that they have to play for. Roosters are four points behind us, Manly are six.

Roosters play the Storm next week, I can't see them winning that, Manly play the Dogs, I can't see them losing that, so if we drop the game to Penrith, which is probably on the cards, round seventeen we get the bye, Manly play those Wacky Raiders, and Roosters get the Dogs, probably wins there for both.

That would mean we start Round 18 on 26 points, Roosters would be on 22, and Manly on 22. Meaning they both need minimum two more wins than us over eight rounds, or more likely three more wins given the current points differential to take our spot in the four. That's a big ask for them, or a complete collapse from us.

TLDR version. Our games vs Manly and Roosters are four point games!
 

Bandwagon

Moderator
Staff member
Messages
30,704
Isn't that a bit unfair on the other teams?

No, cause it's also a four point game for them. Roosters also get a Four point game against the Rabbits, who in turn get Four point games against the Roosters, and us.

This is simple shit FFS f**kin'
 

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