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Will we make the top 4?

Chipmunk

Coach
Messages
12,897
It's looking pretty unlikely we retain fourth, would have to beat the Bunnies next week, and Manly the following.

Looking at the ladder and draw though we would be a lock for finishing no lower than sixth, if that's where we finish, our first final is likely to be as easy as it's gonna get.

As much as I'd find it distasteful, it might pay to accept that as our fate and take the opportunity to rest up some injuries and rotate some players through the squad to give them extra game time. With the view of hitting the finals in as best shape as we possibly can.

We could spend the time between now and then in super secret training, working on those super secret moves I keep hearing about.
It's not the worse idea, but I think we're likely to lose a lot of confidence with losing games, but likely fair margins. I can't see us holding Souths to less than 40 points next week.
 

emjaycee

Coach
Messages
10,266
Sportsbet have finally caught up with reality and have us on the 6th line for winning the GF.
Where we should have been all year but I guess they didnt want those odds out there for too long.
 

Bandwagon

Moderator
Staff member
Messages
30,214
It's not the worse idea, but I think we're likely to lose a lot of confidence with losing games, but likely fair margins. I can't see us holding Souths to less than 40 points next week.

Would we lose more or less confidence losing games at full strength as opposed to having say four or five players being rested?

I mean I totally accept that momentum is a thing, but if it's seen we're likely to lose any way, and I reckon we're playing a bit busted, I don't think it'd make all that much difference in terms of confidence.

The way I see it is without Moses we bring what we've brung the last coupla weeks, if we have to bring him in still carrying the injury he's carrying, we possibly end up more busted than we now are.

The downside of course is it's loser talk, and it'd be real easy for blokes to buy into that and then it feeds on it' self.
 

Chipmunk

Coach
Messages
12,897
Would we lose more or less confidence losing games at full strength as opposed to having say four or five players being rested?

I mean I totally accept that momentum is a thing, but if it's seen we're likely to lose any way, and I reckon we're playing a bit busted, I don't think it'd make all that much difference in terms of confidence.

The way I see it is without Moses we bring what we've brung the last coupla weeks, if we have to bring him in still carrying the injury he's carrying, we possibly end up more busted than we now are.

The downside of course is it's loser talk, and it'd be real easy for blokes to buy into that and then it feeds on it' self.

I think we have an example of this already happening at the moment with the Dragons. I can't see them winning many games going forward, and they're obviously in a position now where they are 'resting' some players. They're obviously not as strong a squad as us.

Having only 5 players in the squad who can realistically play 1,6 or 7 is an issue with the Moses injury. I felt if we had cap and squad space then we should've made some enquiries, but I can't see this happening now over the weekend.
 

Gazzamatta

First Grade
Messages
8,526
Would we lose more or less confidence losing games at full strength as opposed to having say four or five players being rested?

I mean I totally accept that momentum is a thing, but if it's seen we're likely to lose any way, and I reckon we're playing a bit busted, I don't think it'd make all that much difference in terms of confidence.

The way I see it is without Moses we bring what we've brung the last coupla weeks, if we have to bring him in still carrying the injury he's carrying, we possibly end up more busted than we now are.

The downside of course is it's loser talk, and it'd be real easy for blokes to buy into that and then it feeds on it' self.
I reckon BA will panic and select and overplay his highest paid 13 even if they carry injurys but are able to get on the field. Forwards get set for huge minutes. Its how he rolls.
 

eels_fan

Bench
Messages
4,937
Zero chance at Top 4 now with our run.

Souths - no chance, even with Mitch back he's going to be rusty
Manly - Unlikely on form. We'd need a ridiculous turn around from where we are now to challenge them
Cowboys - Win. if we lose this, i'd sack BA on the spot and let Carr guide us into the finals
Storm - No chance
Penrith - Unless they rest a bunch of players in preparation for the finals, no chance.

So i see us finishing on 30 points and in 6th.

We'll play the Sharks in the first week of the finals and win. So i guess thats an upgrade on 2020. We'll then play the loser of Souths/Penrith in week 2 and get smashed. BA then will be told 2022 is his last year at the club.

ladder.png
 

Chipmunk

Coach
Messages
12,897
Some interesting stats from our last three seasons against Top 6 teams that doesn't auger well for the next few weeks.

In that time we have played the Top 6 of that season, including Finals matches, 21 times, for 8 wins and 13 losses. The for and against is 330-477, or an average of 15.7 for and 22.7 against.

The disturbing stat comes in the second half of the seasons. In the back half of the seasons, we have played 9 games against the Top 6, and so far it is 2 wins and 7 losses, with a for and against of 130 to 247, or 14.5 for and 27.5 against per game.

We have four more games this season against Top 6, not including any potential matches in the Finals.

In the 21 games, our Top 6 opponent has scored 28 or more against us in 10 of those games. 6 of those have occurred in the back half of the season. Half of those in Finals. The least a Top 6 opponent has scored against us in a Final is 32 points.

Only twice have we scored more than 30 points against a Top 6 opponent (31 against the Roosters this year and 32 against Manly in 2019). In 9 of the 21 games we have scored two tries or less. Four times we have failed to score a point (three times in the second half of a season).

Only once has a Top 6 opponent failed to score against us (an understrength Storm team).

Read into these stats what you will.
 

King-Gutho94

Juniors
Messages
582
I suppose the only positive in not making the top 4 is we wont cop another spanking from melbourne.

Personally 5th wouldnt be the worse result. Despite our shit form we are proven flat track bullies so if the dragons, sharks or knights finish 8th we would probably still beat them.

Then play either the roosters or manly the following week coming off a bashing against melbourne. And then pray for a miracle.
 

Gazzamatta

First Grade
Messages
8,526
Some interesting stats from our last three seasons against Top 6 teams that doesn't auger well for the next few weeks.

In that time we have played the Top 6 of that season, including Finals matches, 21 times, for 8 wins and 13 losses. The for and against is 330-477, or an average of 15.7 for and 22.7 against.

The disturbing stat comes in the second half of the seasons. In the back half of the seasons, we have played 9 games against the Top 6, and so far it is 2 wins and 7 losses, with a for and against of 130 to 247, or 14.5 for and 27.5 against per game.

We have four more games this season against Top 6, not including any potential matches in the Finals.

In the 21 games, our Top 6 opponent has scored 28 or more against us in 10 of those games. 6 of those have occurred in the back half of the season. Half of those in Finals. The least a Top 6 opponent has scored against us in a Final is 32 points.

Only twice have we scored more than 30 points against a Top 6 opponent (31 against the Roosters this year and 32 against Manly in 2019). In 9 of the 21 games we have scored two tries or less. Four times we have failed to score a point (three times in the second half of a season).

Only once has a Top 6 opponent failed to score against us (an understrength Storm team).

Read into these stats what you will.
Please email this to MON, Jimmy Sparkles and the Board. Maybe dont use your own name.
 
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