Poupou Escobar
Post Whore
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Is it harder to back up after a big match in the tropics in September? History says it is.
There have been nine occasions where teams played a finals match in Townsville and then had to play the following week. Their record in that second week was a combined 2 from 9 (22%). Here's those occasions:
By itself this doesn't tell the whole story though. This was mostly the Cowboys, and if they were usually playing away from home the week after playing in Townsville it stands to reason that they would have had a poor away record, right? Rong!
The Cowboys' home record is obviously good following a home (1 from 1) or away final (3 from 4), but their away record the week after a Townsville final is significantly worse than their away record the week after a final in Sydney/Brisbane or Melbourne:
So if the Cowboys are going to play a finals match away from Townsville, they are historically better off playing their previous week's final away as well. Backing up from a home final has been very difficult for them. Their away finals record after week one is average (6 from 13) but actually pretty good (5 from 7) if their previous game wasn't in Townsville. An away match backing up from a home final has been disastrous for them (1 from 6).
Likewise the other two teams to play a finals match after travelling to North Queensland have both failed to turn up the following week; us in last year's grand final, and the Bulldogs in 2007 (pumped 25-6).
There have been nine occasions where teams played a finals match in Townsville and then had to play the following week. Their record in that second week was a combined 2 from 9 (22%). Here's those occasions:
| Year | Team | Result following Townsville final |
|---|---|---|
| 2004 | Cowboys | Loss |
| 2007 | Cowboys | Win |
| 2007 | Bulldogs | Loss |
| 2007 | Cowboys | Loss |
| 2012 | Cowboys | Loss |
| 2014 | Cowboys | Loss |
| 2015 | Cowboys | Win |
| 2016 | Cowboys | Loss |
| 2022 | Eels | Loss |
By itself this doesn't tell the whole story though. This was mostly the Cowboys, and if they were usually playing away from home the week after playing in Townsville it stands to reason that they would have had a poor away record, right? Rong!
The Cowboys' home record is obviously good following a home (1 from 1) or away final (3 from 4), but their away record the week after a Townsville final is significantly worse than their away record the week after a final in Sydney/Brisbane or Melbourne:
| Away final... | Record | Percentage |
|---|---|---|
| after Townsville final | 1 from 6 | 17% |
| after Sydney/Brisbane/Melbourne final | 5 from 7 | 71% |
So if the Cowboys are going to play a finals match away from Townsville, they are historically better off playing their previous week's final away as well. Backing up from a home final has been very difficult for them. Their away finals record after week one is average (6 from 13) but actually pretty good (5 from 7) if their previous game wasn't in Townsville. An away match backing up from a home final has been disastrous for them (1 from 6).
Likewise the other two teams to play a finals match after travelling to North Queensland have both failed to turn up the following week; us in last year's grand final, and the Bulldogs in 2007 (pumped 25-6).
