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Even with the most fanciful fibres of my being couldn't countenance the wildest possibility of Hawthorn making up the requisite 8 points and 252 points required for the team to sneak into the 8 ahead of Essendon in the next 2 matches. As such, we now have 8 sides playing for positions within the 8, and 8 sides playing for pride outside of it...
FRIDAY AUGUST 22
Hawthorn vs Carlton
MCG 7:45 PM AEST
I bet nobody has told Peter Schwab & Denis Pagan that there's nothing left for their sides to play for this season. The latter would be desperate to avoid leading the embattled Blues to a second successive spoon, although form suggests that this will only be realised provided the Bulldogs fail to win one of their remaining two games. The Blues were smashed by the resurgent Saints last weekend, with a number of records going by the wayside in the 91 point loss at Home. Hawthorn was equal parts good and awful in disposing of the Kangaroos, although it need be stressed that their good was very, very good indeed. Schwab will know that a win here will ensure his job for next year (assuming he isn't already safe) and will want to clock up a 5th straight win against the Blues, who owned the Hawks through much of the nineties. Provided the Hawks stick to running the corridor they will win comfortably, although not by 25 goals, alas... Hawks by 70 pts
SATURDAY AUGUST 23
Essendon vs Fremantle
Telstra Dome 2:10 PM AEST
Well, Sheeds may have been quiet for much of the season, but with the finals looming it is hardly surprising to see him back in full voice. He's been working the media this week, labelling the Dome as the "House of Horror" and pleading with Dons fans to give Freo a fiery reception on Saturday afternoon. Freo are hardly showing signs of intimidation and would probably welcome a bit of extra intensity as valuable practice prior to their first September appearance. The Dockers have the much stronger list and will have better days than this, but the Bombers have sufficient top end talent remaining to win this one under some duress. Freo could seriously worry Essendon in the air and this may be their best chance to spring the upset. Then again, they had that height in the Hawthorn game and still wanted to play short passes around the flanks... Bombers by 32 pts
Adelaide vs Kangaroos
AAMI Stadium 2:40 PM ACST
Adelaide were badly affected by the flu virus and subsequently missed a fabulous opportunity to all but sew-up second spot on the table. They are just about the biggest certainty of this round though and will make the Kangaroos pay dearly for last week's disappointment. The Kangaroos were shameful last week, sniping the Hawks throughout the game and playing a dreary brand of short football that makes me wonder how in the hell they could ever have been in finals contention. This game had contained interest for the Carey/Stevens, Archer factor, but Stevens won't have to worry about this reunion having been deservedly outed for a fortnight by the tribunal. Carey was pasted last week, but he'll cream Archer should the Roos be silly enough to gamble on such a match-up. The Crows have too much talent across the park and have too much to play for... Crows by 56 pts
Brisbane vs Geelong
Gabba 7:10 PM AEST
Both of these sides will still be feeling the anguish of won matches lost from last weekend, but while Geelong's was the most unlucky, it is Brisbane who will surely rue the defeat longer and harder. The Lions must now win both remaining games and hope other matches fall their way to sneak-in to second spot. Its unlikely to happen, but one would expect them to win this game with a minimum of fuss. The side is showing signs of tiredness, and is enduring flat patches that are eerily reminiscent to dual premiers of seasons past. Geelong is copping plenty of flack from fans, but I suspect that come 2005 it could be quite a solid side. Unfortunately for them it is still very much 2003, and the Gabbatoir couldn't possibly be a more unlikely venue for the next Cat win... Lions by 60 pts
Sydney vs Collingwood
Telstra Stadium 7:10 PM AEST
Hmmm... Very interesting match-up. These sides are so acutely similar to one another in both play and overall talent, ensuring that this may be one of the best games of the year. Sydney has a clear edge in pace and were fantastic against Brisbane at the Gabbatoir last time around. The always look ordinary early in a match and will again have to guard against conceding a hefty early deficit. They do possess character though, as shown by their almost unerring capacity to drag themselves back into matches. Collingwood is solid and steady, and has a serious sniff of second spot, which will guarantee a strong showing. Tarrant & Hall loom large as potential match winners for each side, and while both team's have their defensive concerns, I feel Sydney's are just a tad more pressing right now. For this reason I opt ever so slightly toward Collingwood here... Magpies by 7 pts
SUNDAY AUGUST 24
Richmond vs Port Adelaide
Telstra Dome 2:10 PM AEST
These two sides could scarcely be at further poles apart. Port has sewn-up the minor premiership and is freely experimenting with its line-up in preparation for a home final in the first week of September. Conversely, the Tigers are as bad as anything going around in the competition and face the prospect of a twelfth loss from thirteen games here. The only thing Richmond has going for it here is the element of surprise that comes from having nothing left to lose. Its also possible that Port may be saving itself for the derby against the Crows next week, but momentum is a very valuable thing and they wouldn't want to start dropping games now. Would like to see the Tigers win, but can't see any way that they can get over the line... Power by 30 pts
St Kilda vs Western Bulldogs
York Park 1:10 PM
Every dog and its cat will be riding on the Saints this weekend, with the talented young side looking totally irresistable over the past 3 weeks. I had a look at the side last week and loved the many quality youngsters on the list. The side could have very exciting times ahead indeed, provided it can fix a couple of glaring weaknesses (ruck, key defense) over the summer. For now, however, the side will be satisfied with finishing ahead of Hawthorn as the best side out of the 8 for 2003. I'll go against popular opinion and tip the Hounds here though, as I have a gut feeling that they can catch the Saints in a complacent mood. A win here may be enough to help Western avoid the wooden spoon whilst still getting two fab draft picks. They deserve to get above the Blues and have the wherewithal to win... Bulldogs by 10 pts
West Coast vs Melbourne
Subiaco 3:40 PM AWST
West Coast's late season woes continue, with the side sealing a spot in the 8 by virtue of a very fortunate draw against Geelong last week. That was the Eagles second draw against a lowly Victorian side for the season and it is difficult to see the side having any real impact in September. Melbourne has had a shocking season and a loss here would condemn the club to the bottom 4 for 2003, which is where they belong on form. That being said, the Demons may fancy themselves against a side lacking the genuine key position strength to hurt them in defence. It will also require a better than even share of the ball and a big game from Neitz up forward, but Melbourne has shown a liking for Subi in the past. West Coast will desperately be seeking form, but I sense an upset with Melbourne needing a big upset to finish out the season with... Demons by 12 pts
CyberKev
FRIDAY AUGUST 22
Hawthorn vs Carlton
MCG 7:45 PM AEST
I bet nobody has told Peter Schwab & Denis Pagan that there's nothing left for their sides to play for this season. The latter would be desperate to avoid leading the embattled Blues to a second successive spoon, although form suggests that this will only be realised provided the Bulldogs fail to win one of their remaining two games. The Blues were smashed by the resurgent Saints last weekend, with a number of records going by the wayside in the 91 point loss at Home. Hawthorn was equal parts good and awful in disposing of the Kangaroos, although it need be stressed that their good was very, very good indeed. Schwab will know that a win here will ensure his job for next year (assuming he isn't already safe) and will want to clock up a 5th straight win against the Blues, who owned the Hawks through much of the nineties. Provided the Hawks stick to running the corridor they will win comfortably, although not by 25 goals, alas... Hawks by 70 pts
SATURDAY AUGUST 23
Essendon vs Fremantle
Telstra Dome 2:10 PM AEST
Well, Sheeds may have been quiet for much of the season, but with the finals looming it is hardly surprising to see him back in full voice. He's been working the media this week, labelling the Dome as the "House of Horror" and pleading with Dons fans to give Freo a fiery reception on Saturday afternoon. Freo are hardly showing signs of intimidation and would probably welcome a bit of extra intensity as valuable practice prior to their first September appearance. The Dockers have the much stronger list and will have better days than this, but the Bombers have sufficient top end talent remaining to win this one under some duress. Freo could seriously worry Essendon in the air and this may be their best chance to spring the upset. Then again, they had that height in the Hawthorn game and still wanted to play short passes around the flanks... Bombers by 32 pts
Adelaide vs Kangaroos
AAMI Stadium 2:40 PM ACST
Adelaide were badly affected by the flu virus and subsequently missed a fabulous opportunity to all but sew-up second spot on the table. They are just about the biggest certainty of this round though and will make the Kangaroos pay dearly for last week's disappointment. The Kangaroos were shameful last week, sniping the Hawks throughout the game and playing a dreary brand of short football that makes me wonder how in the hell they could ever have been in finals contention. This game had contained interest for the Carey/Stevens, Archer factor, but Stevens won't have to worry about this reunion having been deservedly outed for a fortnight by the tribunal. Carey was pasted last week, but he'll cream Archer should the Roos be silly enough to gamble on such a match-up. The Crows have too much talent across the park and have too much to play for... Crows by 56 pts
Brisbane vs Geelong
Gabba 7:10 PM AEST
Both of these sides will still be feeling the anguish of won matches lost from last weekend, but while Geelong's was the most unlucky, it is Brisbane who will surely rue the defeat longer and harder. The Lions must now win both remaining games and hope other matches fall their way to sneak-in to second spot. Its unlikely to happen, but one would expect them to win this game with a minimum of fuss. The side is showing signs of tiredness, and is enduring flat patches that are eerily reminiscent to dual premiers of seasons past. Geelong is copping plenty of flack from fans, but I suspect that come 2005 it could be quite a solid side. Unfortunately for them it is still very much 2003, and the Gabbatoir couldn't possibly be a more unlikely venue for the next Cat win... Lions by 60 pts
Sydney vs Collingwood
Telstra Stadium 7:10 PM AEST
Hmmm... Very interesting match-up. These sides are so acutely similar to one another in both play and overall talent, ensuring that this may be one of the best games of the year. Sydney has a clear edge in pace and were fantastic against Brisbane at the Gabbatoir last time around. The always look ordinary early in a match and will again have to guard against conceding a hefty early deficit. They do possess character though, as shown by their almost unerring capacity to drag themselves back into matches. Collingwood is solid and steady, and has a serious sniff of second spot, which will guarantee a strong showing. Tarrant & Hall loom large as potential match winners for each side, and while both team's have their defensive concerns, I feel Sydney's are just a tad more pressing right now. For this reason I opt ever so slightly toward Collingwood here... Magpies by 7 pts
SUNDAY AUGUST 24
Richmond vs Port Adelaide
Telstra Dome 2:10 PM AEST
These two sides could scarcely be at further poles apart. Port has sewn-up the minor premiership and is freely experimenting with its line-up in preparation for a home final in the first week of September. Conversely, the Tigers are as bad as anything going around in the competition and face the prospect of a twelfth loss from thirteen games here. The only thing Richmond has going for it here is the element of surprise that comes from having nothing left to lose. Its also possible that Port may be saving itself for the derby against the Crows next week, but momentum is a very valuable thing and they wouldn't want to start dropping games now. Would like to see the Tigers win, but can't see any way that they can get over the line... Power by 30 pts
St Kilda vs Western Bulldogs
York Park 1:10 PM
Every dog and its cat will be riding on the Saints this weekend, with the talented young side looking totally irresistable over the past 3 weeks. I had a look at the side last week and loved the many quality youngsters on the list. The side could have very exciting times ahead indeed, provided it can fix a couple of glaring weaknesses (ruck, key defense) over the summer. For now, however, the side will be satisfied with finishing ahead of Hawthorn as the best side out of the 8 for 2003. I'll go against popular opinion and tip the Hounds here though, as I have a gut feeling that they can catch the Saints in a complacent mood. A win here may be enough to help Western avoid the wooden spoon whilst still getting two fab draft picks. They deserve to get above the Blues and have the wherewithal to win... Bulldogs by 10 pts
West Coast vs Melbourne
Subiaco 3:40 PM AWST
West Coast's late season woes continue, with the side sealing a spot in the 8 by virtue of a very fortunate draw against Geelong last week. That was the Eagles second draw against a lowly Victorian side for the season and it is difficult to see the side having any real impact in September. Melbourne has had a shocking season and a loss here would condemn the club to the bottom 4 for 2003, which is where they belong on form. That being said, the Demons may fancy themselves against a side lacking the genuine key position strength to hurt them in defence. It will also require a better than even share of the ball and a big game from Neitz up forward, but Melbourne has shown a liking for Subi in the past. West Coast will desperately be seeking form, but I sense an upset with Melbourne needing a big upset to finish out the season with... Demons by 12 pts
CyberKev
