SOUTHS v BULLDOGS
A couple of outs for the bunnies in teo and G. Burgess, they have improved in recent weeks, but not enough To be the bulldogs IMO. They are travelling, the only concern is the short turn-a-round back from NZ. If they have got over that they will win, if not they may still just win, the bunnies for me are still a bit of a rabble.
Pretty ordinary game this, souths seriously should have put 20 on the dogs, but their polish in the halves is still terrible. The dogs somehow kept hanging in there, they never looked likely until the 75th minute, still trying to figure out how they won, especially with the rub of the green souths got here. Moving forward for me souths will face an uphill battle against the rejuvenated broncos next week at suncorp, i can't see the bunnies being a decent betting proposition for a couple of weeks yet. A quick laugh at this though, souths have gone up 1.70 favs already at suncorp against the broncos who just put 30 on the knights at hunter stadium…………stop it. The dogs moving forward are a stay away for me more likely than not as they have been in 3 x tight arm wrestles which may have taken something from them.
Out 100 straight out dogs, In 210- profit 110.
Souths 2.20 (1.70)
Dogs 1.90 (2.10)
Bet Dogs straight out at the 2.10.
KNIGHTS v BRONCOS
Sam thaiday is a late withdrawal here, and for this reason that makes the knights a play here. The broncos have an awesome record against the knights at Hunter Stadium so i will probably eat my words. Interesting to hear Willie Mason say they are back to thinking footy due to most of the team being able to see Alex Mackinnon and the improvement he has shown, he says that it has been a weight lifted off their shoulders and has given all the players peace of mind at the same time. I think this plays a big part in the result tonight, along with mullen having that 1 game back.
Didnt see this coming, FFS the knights had this game at their mercy, good away win last week, coming home ready to build on their season in front of an awesome home crowd and came up with an absolute duck egg. You could just tell after 5 minutes what was coming, the broncos had them covered everywhere, from enthusiasm , gang tackling, broncos were up quick in defence and were their to play, the piss weak knights just did not turn up - very disappointing. Moving froward the knights will still be a betting proposition as they can turn the tide quickly depending on opposition, the broncos i believe will keep this momentum, they are good at stringing a few together.
Out 100, In 0 - Loss 100.
Knights - 1.70 (1.80)
Broncos - 2.05 (2.20)
Backing Knights straight out here.
MANLY v COWBOYS
For me manly are still not where they could be, this was evident last week when they should have put 50 on the sharks, I'm hearing Daly Cherry Evans is in doubt, not confirmed yet as i know it. Even with the doubt, i am going to tip the cowboys here, i will also be backing them at the line as a moral, and if i can find $3.20 i will be back them straight as well. The cowboys are capable of winning a match like this, as they are like the warriors and can win without notice. There front row improved last week with scott and tamou coming up with big numbers in a beaten side, thurston is due to win a match on his own as well.
Ive seen replays of this so called controversy over and over and over, and I'm not convinced about the obstruction what so ever, as i know it, an obstruction penalty is given if the defending player is obstructed to the point that he cannot get to the attacking player what so ever, or to have had no chance to compete to make a tackle. Now if ray thompson was going to get to that player, he would have needed an F1 Jet, so for me the decision is correct. Interesting to note brent tate said it made no difference, he quoted they should have won the game well before that play, i agree. You just can't give manly chances, they are the best in the league at taking them. Improvement again for the cowboys, but i have said it all year, that they will not be in the finals this year until they move paul green on, he is just not the man for the job, never ever ever was. Manly will be better betting props as we move forward, the cowboys i think need to be avoided as i think this loss will sap their confidence big time.
Out 100 - in $192 with the +6.5 to the cowboys.
Manly $1.65 (1.40)
Cowboys $2.80 (2.95)
Backing the cowboys @ the line of +6.5.
DRAGONS v WARRIORS
I have no idea here, for me the dragons could very well be flat after that effort last week, but some would argue the same for the warriors, I would not be surprised one little bit if the dragons won by 20, the warriors won by 20, or if either won by a point. Will tip the warriors only because they are better than 2 wins so far, form to me says the dragons and they also have the wood on this team, possibly something the warriors will want to reverse. Apparently it is the worst hoodoo in RL History that the warriors can't beat the dragons, but my gut is telling me the warriors will win. No bet here.
Pretty good effort here from the dragons, they could of not turned up after last week, but to their credit they came to play as best they could, they have a lot of good things happening there in my opinion, even though I'm not a fan, I'm seeing good things from their forwards and 5/8, a watch moving forward regardless of who they play as i think they will be in their next few games up to their eyeballs. The warriors too i think are close, a watch with them as well.
Dragons $2.20 (1.60)
Warriors $1.90 (2.40) Possible value here.
SHARKS v ROOSTERS
Seriously want to be on the roosters here straight out, they have no alternative here but to be turning up to win, i have them at 1.15, and that may confuse a few here, however, this has to be the bounce back factor in my ratings ever. Looking at the sharks side they are still horrible in the forwards, and i believe the roosters will roll straight through them all day. The sharks bashed the roosters here last year , that won't be happening this time as the circumstances are at opposite ends of the scale, the roosters barely have an injury, and if SBW, moa, hargreaves and cordner don't tear them a new arsehole, there will be changes next week, and i have been told they have been put on notice.
They have some work to do the premiers, all I'm seeing is the same structured plays, the same kicking game, and all their wins have come on the back of some piece of individual brilliance as was evident with SKD and RTS. They have no cohesion what so ever, either robinson is in the middle of tweaking new structures and plays, or he hasn't done his homework during the off season, either way moving forward they are a no betting prop for me after that schamoozle. The sharks are useless at the moment which says nothing for the premiers, and in my time i haven't seen carney play any worse than that. They can only improve, and i do like them as a betting prop moving forward.
Out 100 , in $142 as they drifted when gallen announced return.
Sharks $4.00 (3.35)
Roosters $1,15 (1.37)
Will be playing the roosters hard straight out at the 1.37.
RAIDERS v STORM
Good game this, and i can see the overs being value here. I like the raiders here, they are facing 8 straight losses at home, which is unheard of, coach stuart knows how to get a side up for a win and at home the raiders faithful will be expecting nothing less. The storm are still finding their feet and are ripe for the picking, the raiders also boast a pretty good record against them, will chambers is a loss for the storm also, with the raiders having joel edwards returning - he is an underrated player and will add some punch to their forwards. Jesse bromwich also out for the storm.
Not too sure what to take out of this, the storm seriously should have posted another 20 points, as there was 3 tries at keast i saw bombed, the old storm probably would of scored them, geez i think they miss widdop more than people think. They absolutely were cutting them to shreds for 60 minutes, but just could not find the polish on the end of broken field play. Cameron smith said it well in the press conference "if we were fair dinkum we would of won that game" - so true, they should of won by 20-24 points. The raiders on the other hand proved my gut right but still should not have won that game. In saying this, i had them rated better than their pre game quote, which is why i had the bet. Moving forward i think this will still give the raiders some much needed confidence which makes them a short term betting prop for me, the storm i will still consider a betting prop going back to home ground regardless of who they play, they have to snap out of it sooner rather than later, they still are miles ahead of most teams IMO just watching their set ups and structures.
Out 100 - In $230, they drifted 5 cents when i backed them.
Raiders - $2.15 (2.25)
Storm - $1.85 (1.70)
Will be backing the raiders straight out here.
EELS v TIGERS
Robbie farah out is the reason the eels have come into 1.44, which is way too short IMO, the eels are going well enough but that is a ludicrous price, and i don't like the media attention that bad sides get when winning, it puts a false sense of security feel into the camp, unless i have underestimated Brad Arthur? For me the tigers are way overs and @2.90 they have to be a play, considering their form, there forward are just steamrolling sides and farah has been playing off the back of it. If the hooker in this game can at least give a credible service in this, i can't see how the eels forwards are going to stop the tigers, especially their bench. Anasta is back which will bring a cool head(although i don't rate him), but with farah out he brings the experience). I think the tigers can win this, they are way overs in my book, so its a bet for me.
Not a bad game, but not what everyone is carrying on about seriously, these two sides when watched carefully are way behind the storm, manly etc at the moment. If the tigers had farah there, they win by 30 IMO, the eels , they lacked any initiative to be sending hayne and sandow out of dummy half and into holes in behind the A defenders where there was plenty of space. The tigers too were guilty of not using the markers to better effect, but i put that down to no Farah. Still can't believe the tigers were 2.90, the eels are clueless other than hayne and as soon as the media jumped all over their bandwagon they were always going to be overpriced. Moving forward, the eels to be left alone as a betting prop, the tigers also with no farah.
Out 100 - In $290
Out 100 - In $192 @ +7.5
Eels - $2.40 (1.44)
Tigers - $1.80 (2.90)
Will be playing the tigers straight out , and at the line of +7.5, this looks a moral bet the line.
PANTHERS v TITANS
This is a worry game for me, i like the titans , but can't be betting against penrith at home who are trying to avoid a losing run at home. The mail is that the panthers are needing a dry track due to their speed?? I would of thought the titans would more than match them with speed with mead, kelly, blair and gordon on a dry track??? The titans to me are value, but my gut is telling me that the panthers will be more desperate. In saying that the titans ability to hang in there, especially away from home means a no bet here for me.
Worst game i have witnessed so far this year, these two sides just can't be competing at the end of the year, the titans have way more upside, but I'm not sure they can get it together enough to challenge, they have held onto cartwright a season too long in my view. The titans will be a betting prop moving forward, the panthers are completely dull in my view and cannot score tries. They both need work in all areas especially discipline, not sure what the penalty count was but there was plenty. Low low game this was, glad i stayed out of it.
Panthers - 1.90 (1.68)
Titans - 1.92 (2.25)
All the best to anyone having a punt this weekend.
T/OUTS - 700
T/INS - 1256
Profit - 556.
I will get to the year to date tomorrow or wednesday.
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