Copy pasting my fkn essay:
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Rumour has it that the St George Illawarra Dragons are poised to extend the contract of Paul “Mary” McGregor by three years, which will make him the longest-serving coach in the history of St George, Illawarra and St.George Illawarra.
Roy Masters (St George) 162 games
Nathan Brown (St George Illawarra) 151 games
Ken Kearney (St George) 141 games
David Waite (Stg and Stgi) 129 games
Harry Bath (St George) 118 games
Brian Smith (St George) 118 games
Paul McGregor (St George Illawarra) 114 games*
Graham Murray (Illawarra) 91 games
McGregor is the only coach listed to have NOT reach at least a preliminary final, while 4 of the coaches have made grand finals, with 2 winning them. Of the coaches listed above, McGregor has the lowest winning percentage, with just 50.9%.
One might ask: why would St George Illawarra extend his contract? Let’s go through the likely answers to that question Dragons HQ will come up with, as well as proof they are rubbish.
He’s achieved great results so far and is an elite coach.
When Steve Price was sacked after round 10 of 2014, the Dragons sat in equal 11th (13th due to for & against) two competition points outside the top 8. His assistant, Paul McGregor elevated into the top job and steered the team to 7 wins and 7 losses, including a 10-40 thrashing in the final round, to finish in outright 11th place, four points outside the top 8.
Since then he has had 4 full NRL seasons as head coach, with 2 top 8 finishes and 1 finals win, and as mentioned, a winning percentage of just 50.9%.
Recent coaches with 4+ years experience with only one or less finals wins are: Jason Taylor, Neil Henry, John Cartwright, Anthony Griffin, Stephen Kearney and Brad Arthur. That is not elite company. On the flipside, Craig Bellamy and Trent Robinson both won 5 finals matches in their first 4 years of coaching, and Paul Green won 8. The last coach to win a premiership having won 1 or less finals games in their first 4 years of coaching was Chris Anderson in 1995 – however he was dealing with a 5 team finals series (and he made a grand final in year 5, and won the comp in year 6).
McGregor has put together a strong squad of players.
He's certainly working with a much stronger squad than his predecessor. However, he deserves no credit for that, as the recruitment duties were quite publicly stripped from him in late 2016 and handed to Ian Millward.
The players are loyal to McGregor.
Aside from Gareth Widdop, the club captain no less, leaving the club mid-contract under McGregor’s tenure, he has also seen big name players Josh Dugan and Trent Merrin (among others) leave the club in his time.
Rival clubs may poach him.
This may be somewhat a subjective point, but, it seems incredibly unlikely another club will attempt to steal him from the Dragons. The bulk of NRL clubs are committed to their coaches for beyond next year, with the remainder (at a glance Bulldogs, Newcastle, Warriors and Gold Coast) employing coaches of similar career stature to McGregor currently. They’d be replacing like with like.
In addition to that, McGregor has never been employed anywhere else in the NRL. He has no experience of organisations outside of Illawarra or St George Illawarra. Played his entire career with the one NRL club, and has spent his entire off-field career with the one NRL club – beginning with a training and conditional role under Nathan Brown, before returning as an assistant under Steve Price (he went back to a local Wollongong club in the Bennett years). Every single coach currently employed in the NRL has some form of experience at a different NRL club, be it playing or in an assistant role. It is almost an unwritten prerequisite of being a coach. Now, there is a notable exception to this rule in Geoff Toovey, who did guide Manly to a grand final. However, it’s also worth noting that aside from a gig with the relegated Bradford Bulls in England, he has not been engaged by any other clubs since.
Recruitment stability. Incoming players want to know the coaching situation is stable.
This is a difficult one to categorically disprove, as it is a myth that is widely believed in across the league, and the reason why many coaches are sacked (or advised they will not be renewed) at the very latest halfway through their final season.
However there are two pieces of evidence that provide a sufficient counter to this myth.
1. There are many examples that show players recruited by a sacked coach have no problem staying at their new club under a different coach. Dane Gagai signed by Michael Maguire in June 2017, Maguire sacked in September 2017. Jai Arrow was signed by Neil Henry but didn’t play a single game under him, yet became a rep player under Garth Brennan. Api Koroisau was signed by Geoff Toovey and never played under him. Tautau Moga was signed by Neil Henry at Nth Qld, he spent 3 seasons in Townsville coached by Paul Green. The list could keep going. I present these merely as evidence that a coach change has, in reality, minimal effect on new recruits. If a coach change has minimal effect, then a coach under a cloud would be the same.
2. The Dragons recruitment situation for 2019 appears settled. Only fringe or young players are coming off contract, and no big names. Gareth Widdop has already been ostensibly replaced by Corey Norman, so one would assume the main recruit would likely be a fullback. There are no fullbacks on what you’d refer to as marquee (Widdop-style) money coming off contract in 2019 (the closest would be perhaps Gutherson from Parramatta and he’s a stretch), so you’d likely have that money available for an up and coming, potentially untried fullback . In that case, it’s safe to assume the player is moving clubs for a combination of the first grade opportunity, and the first grade pay packet. Head coach status would be well down the list.
In summary, there is no good reason to extend McGregor’s contract right now, if ever.