Super 18 what does it mean for NRL expansion?

[Perth Red]

Gold coasts first season was 2011! So the Lions crowds have gone from 25190 in 2011 to 21379 this year. Hardly a massive drop and when you couple it with on field very explanable beyond the Suns taking fans from them. On the plus side for the AFL the suns crowds have avg over 15k so even with the Lions 3.8k drop (again not that I think the Suns are a big factor in this drop) since Suns came in the AFL is still getting over 11k more people to games in Qland due to its expansion.

You only need to look at the lions win loss column from 2009 to now to see why they are drawing less fans. http://afltables.com/afl/teams/brisbanel/season.html

 

[ElectricEelMan]

Gold coasts first season was 2011! So the Lions crowds have gone from 25190 in 2011 to 21379 this year. Hardly a massive drop and when you couple it with on field very explanable beyond the Suns taking fans from them. On the plus side for the AFL the suns crowds have avg over 15k so even with the Lions 3.8k drop (again not that I think the Suns are a big factor in this drop) since Suns came in the AFL is still getting over 11k more people to games in Qland due to its expansion.

You only need to look at the lions win loss column from 2009 to now to see why they are drawing less fans. http://afltables.com/afl/teams/brisbanel/season.html

They have gone from 30000 to 20000. And I can tell you this much, they have been inflating their crowd numbers the last few years. And don't tell me it is because of performance because in the middle of this crowd slump they were in the mix of playing in finals.

 

[Loose Cannon]

As for Rugby, unlike the structure of the NRL's expansion, this new plan makes absolutely no sense and in my view will undermine the credibility of the Super Rugby tournament, which hasn't ever looked as good as it currently does with the current set up of 5 teams per conference. It makes sense the way it looks now... but this new competition? It just looks like something dreamed up at a marketing meeting - whoever dreamt up the notion of putting an Asian team in a South African- Argentina conference need to give themselves a massive uppercut and just keep going until they knock some sense back into their head.

I can't work this out either. I don't follow rugby and basically couldn't care less, but how is placing a Japanese side in South Africa's conference even considered before teleportation is mastered. Tokyo is on the same Timezone as Australia's East coast, yet we will find a competion that's only a 23 hour flight away instead.

Still, I don't think super rugby expansion will have any impact on NRL expansion other than NZ specifically, and we are guaranteed second billing there anyway. Another team over there in the next 10 years, maybe 1 more within 20-25 based on success of the others and we fill the void.

Without any allegiances to the bids out there now, I like the idea of Perth and Ipswich for 2018,
with Sydney rationalisation following allowing NZ2, Brisbane 3 by 2025-2030. Adelaide is a way off, as is Rockhampton. PNG won't happen in my lifetime.

 

[Perth Red]

They have gone from 30000 to 20000. And I can tell you this much, they have been inflating their crowd numbers the last few years. And don't tell me it is because of performance because in the middle of this crowd slump they were in the mix of playing in finals.

None of which has any bearing on ths discussion that the Suns have caused the Lions crowds to drop, anymore than a new Brisbane NRL team will cause the Broncos crowds to drop or bringing in the Titans has affected the Broncos crowds. 2009 last time Lions were in finals, 2009 last time Lions got 30k, coincidence? 2011 Suns admitted to AFL, Lions crowds slightly down since 2011 coinciding with poor performances on the field. Next time Lions hit the playoffs their corwds will be back up again. Such is the fickle nature of sports fans.

 

[Parra]

I can't work this out either. I don't follow rugby and basically couldn't care less, but how is placing a Japanese side in South Africa's conference even considered before teleportation is mastered. Tokyo is on the same Timezone as Australia's East coast, yet we will find a competion that's only a 23 hour flight away instead.

Still, I don't think super rugby expansion will have any impact on NRL expansion other than NZ specifically, and we are guaranteed second billing there anyway. Another team over there in the next 10 years, maybe 1 more within 20-25 based on success of the others and we fill the void.

Without any allegiances to the bids out there now, I like the idea of Perth and Ipswich for 2018,
with Sydney rationalisation following allowing NZ2, Brisbane 3 by 2025-2030. Adelaide is a way off, as is Rockhampton. PNG won't happen in my lifetime.

There will never be enough TV sets in PNG for anything there to be considered.

Lots of TV sets in Japan though. These decisions are commercial decisions. They have nothing to do with sporting considerations.

 

[herbert henry1908]

Gold coasts first season was 2011! So the Lions crowds have gone from 25190 in 2011 to 21379 this year. [/URL]

ummm , the relevant year is the year before they entered , not the year they entered.


and you even said so yourself.....

Lions crowds two years before suns admission and two years since are virtually unchanged, attendance wise suns have had zero impact on lions. On field performance is far more a factor.

The year before the suns came in it was 29xxx

now its 21xxx

Even if you only take the first two years of the suns , the lions crowds fells 5.5K.


Sometimes its just easier to admit you were wrong.

 

[herbert henry1908]

There will never be enough TV sets in PNG for anything there to be considered.

Lots of TV sets in Japan though. These decisions are commercial decisions. They have nothing to do with sporting considerations.

Never?

I dont get why people talk in such absolutes.


It may take a long time but im sure PNG will develop.

 

[Parra]

Never?

I dont get why people talk in such absolutes.

Yet you are sure.

 

[BuffaloRules]

ummm , the relevant year is the year before they entered , not the year they entered.


and you even said so yourself.....





The year before the suns came in it was 29xxx

now its 21xxx

Even if you only take the first two years of the suns , the lions crowds fells 5.5K.


Sometimes its just easier to admit you were wrong.

Is he ever right about anything?

Never responds when you catch him out either.

 

[herbert henry1908]

Yet you are sure.

You're right , I should have said 'I think'


In all likelihood it will develop & become richer. History has taught us that.

 

[Sydney Knight]

Don't underestimate PNG it may be 20 years but financially they won't have an issue competing. With government funding and large resource companies looking to suck up to the locals money won't be a problem.

Obviously there are many other issues that need sorting out though.

 

[Parra]

Don't underestimate PNG it may be 20 years but financially they won't have an issue competing.

It's not about PNG being competitive. It is about how much cash they can generate for the broadcasters. This criteria was laid down when the ARL/NSWRL aligned with superleague. Sporting considerations come a distant last when it comes to any decision making. This includes expansion as well as seemingly minor rule changes. eg Will removing punching help win a certain demographic? Will golden point satisfy some moronic bell_ends who don't understand sport?

PNG need to bring more $$$$ to the table than they cost to include or they have no hope whatsoever. Then they need to bring more bucks than the next bid.

 

[Starkers]

fwiw i think we've seen the high water mark in australian rugby union for some time. following the lions last year and the waratahs this year the interest is back in quality union but it will ebb and flow from now on with the decision to offer sabbaticals to all aru players.

that will significantly weaken the comp here and will result in a 2-3 year cycle of a strong team or two with players likely to return home for a season prior to a world cup. and it will be a long, long time before another world cup in australia.

the advent of the nrc is merely revisiting a model that didn't work previously. why will it work now with lesser quality players?

union players already complain about travel which is ironic given the aru offers that up as a reason to switch codes. adding teams in sth africa, argentina and possibly japan or singapore will only make things worse for s18.

the best thing the aru could have done was broken away with the nzru and created a 10-12 team aus/nz comp with a dedicated grand final venue each year just like the nrl and afl. the fact that you have to cobble together a final within a week or two just doesn't make sense to me. even a comp like the bbl has realised this and scheduled theirs for a neutral venue in canberra this season.

i agree with the sentiments about more nz teams too. this will lead to an undermining of nz based super rugby franchises eventually, where players will choose based on opportunity for money if the all blacks remain a difficult team to break into.

 

[Perth Red]

Is he ever right about anything?

Never responds when you catch him out either.

f**k I don't live on here lol.

So you think afl fans stopped supporting the lions in 2010 in anticipation of the suns coming into the comp in 2011? You don't think it a coincidence the last successful year for the lions was also their last big crowd year? Believe that the minor drop in lions crowds since suns admitted is due to,the suns if you like or believe it is due to the lions poor on field performances over the last 5 seasons. Tbh I don't really care.

 

[Rodney]

its ridiculous to dismiss PNG for lack of broadcast value.
They would provide tv content which is inherently valuable. While people prefer to watch teams they support many will watch rugby league regardless of who's playing.
Take last saturday's Bulldogs v Manly semi which had over 200k viewers in QLD, it can't just be all expats either considering how the other 3 state capitals recorded metro ratings numbers which were below 100k combined.

And even then a PNG team would have some valuable fans.
I don't know how many people in PNG have access to TV or how much the average set on PNG eyeballs are but they aren't worthless. And there is also a considerable expat contingent to consider (30k people born in PNG , 45k who were born or have ancestry from PNG according to wikipedia).

The only risks are if the NRL reaches saturation, and I don't believe we're at that point yet.

The real factor keeping PNG out of the NRL are the social issues plaguing the country.
Its going to take a lot of work to get the capital presentable to the standard warranting an NRL club.
And some special arrangements will need to be made so players will want to (or at least feel safe and comfortable) living there.
A decent size stadium is being built for the Pacfic games (25k), but for a country like PNG you'd think they'd want something the size of suncorp and even then they'd have to have to turn people down.
and that's only the beggining.
It'd be a massive task to get PNG to a condition where it could hold an NRL club, but once it had one i'm sure it'd be able to hold its weight and contribute to the prosperity to the competition as a whole.

 

[goodplayer]

IMO Super 18 will flounder. The current set-up is already under serious threat in Australia with decreasing crowds, TV ratings. By increasing the teams by two they will undoubtedly increase costs and this will eventually put a serious strain on the ARU. The ARU is already in financial distress.

.

super 15 now

2015 will be super 17 . sa kings, arg pumas , new teams ;-)

2016 will be super 18, japan or singapore team added ok

so thats 3 new teams

 

[Parra]

its ridiculous to dismiss PNG for lack of broadcast value..

Crowd numbers and TV ratings are not my fascination. I prefer the footy. But they are the fascination of some people, in particular the insecure and also those who run the game. It is niot NRL specific, the same drivers - the need to reduce sport to content for TV - are what result in Super Rugby and AFL decisions among many others.

 

[flippikat]

New Zealand is the trump card that the NRL has over AFL.

It would only take a team in Adelaide and a team in Perth for the NRL to have a better coverage of Australia than AFL - we already have better coverage of the east coast.

Any other Australian NRL expansion teams would either be creating intra-city derbies (eg Brisbane2) or representing in smaller regional centres (Central Qld, Cairns, Central Coast).

For the AFL, the only options for expansion are Tasmania (a small & divided market), extra teams in Perth or Adelaide (which may just eat into existing teams support), or regional Qld/NSW/ACT which will take a lot of ground-work to convert.

AFL would KILL for an expansion option like NZ that gives it fresh territory and an opportunity for some meaningful international profile.

If expansion into NZ is taken-up by the NRL, I think Super Rugby should be worried - the NRL is a far better 'product', and having 2-3 teams here would really create a buzz through all levels of the game.

 

[goodplayer]

nz has afl played in some schools ,

nz been screaming for a 2nd nrl team . get a move on , and make it happen

 

[maccattack]

f**k it lets go to London ... http://www.smh.com.au/rugby-league/...ka-teams-to-join-the-nrl-20141103-11g0nz.html