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Unlucky?

Legal Eel

Juniors
Messages
642
No, we are not unlucky.

We have an issue at this club. It is the same issue we have had at this club for a while.
It was here before the current 3 year term rotating board.

It was here before the last board that got done for salary cap breaches because they hired a con man from the Bulldogs Marketing team

It was here before the previous board that run on Good Vibes and backroom deals.

It was here before the coup that installed that board and made everyone feel good.

It was here during the Smith years, the Hilditch Years and the Cronin years.

It is a soft underbelly and no mental toughness. WE ARN'T RUTHLESS and it hurts us.
The most "dead on the money" post I have ever read on this site.
 

Poupou Escobar

Post Whore
Messages
85,732
1.) I don’t see how winnable games that we dropped didn’t end up being more important in the end. I suppose they were just as important as our final round dead rubber where we beat the eventual premiers?
There's also losable games that we won. It all comes out in the wash.
2.) It doesn’t matter if the 2023 team would have made the finals in 2023. Have to assess each team relative to its peers in the same year.
It's not about whether we made the finals, it's the number of games we won. After four years in the finals a season with a 50% win rate is acceptable for anybody without an overblown sense of entitlement.
3.) Most of those same forwards made a grand final two years ago in the fast game.
Yeah agreed. Brilliant coaching by Arthur's.
4.) We should strive to be the best. I don’t really appreciate it if our club just threw their hands in the air and said they’re just too good for us we can’t compete. Imagine if Penrith had that attitude?
Penrith have missed the finals heaps of times. Around the time Gould got there they went three straight years with no finals footy.
5.) If it was as easy as just buying the best decision makers using money then the Roosters and Broncos wouldn’t have received the spoon in the modern era. You don’t seem to get that it’s also how you utilise your resources that matters. Just having them isn’t enough. Penrith finally managed to manage theirs effectively after years of mediocrity. I think myself and a lot of other posters here believe our clubs resources aren’t being utilised to their fullest potential.
Based on what? How could you possibly know we aren't at potential? Because of how good we were forty years ago? Everything has changed since then. Professionalism meant a lot of clubs overtook us. Demographic change has eroded our geographic benefits.
6.) When Bennett took over the Dragons they were in a similar position to us.
How about when he took over the Knights?
Perennial underachievers who hadn’t won a competition in ages.
We were underachieving for a very different reason to the Dragons. We were just under resourced. That's why we made the finals only 10 times in the 32 years between 1986 and 2019. I remember those early nineties sides and they were awful. Following that, some of those squads that Brian Smith won minor premierships with, Wayne Bennett would've struggled to get into the finals. Our 2019-2022 squad is good but there were obviously better ones.
I don’t remember the odds for the Dragons in 2009 but they finished 6th (week 3 finals) 13th and 7th (week 1 finals). Hardly a team that was contending for a title. Bennett turned them into a consistent team in 2009 (minor premiers) before they choked in the finals but atoned for it the next season. I don’t know how you can say that wasn’t a hard job.
He might've stopped them choking (for one year in three) but they were a strong club since the nineties. From the '99 decider until Bennett's first season in '09 they only missed the finals three times. In '05 they had the best squad in the NRL.

Anyway, Bennett is obviously a great coach while Arthur's isn't. But I think Arthur has proven himself to be a good coach and he's earnt the right to finish the year. If the squad is still good he will sort them out. If the squad is f**ked then Bennett wouldn't have helped anyway. The club has a plan for growth, and shitting ourselves and sacking merkins after a third of a season isn't the way to run a professional organisation.
 

the phantom menace

First Grade
Messages
9,191
Tired Good Night GIF by Max
 

lucablight

First Grade
Messages
6,190
There's also losable games that we won. It all comes out in the wash.

It's not about whether we made the finals, it's the number of games we won. After four years in the finals a season with a 50% win rate is acceptable for anybody without an overblown sense of entitlement.

Yeah agreed. Brilliant coaching by Arthur's.

Penrith have missed the finals heaps of times. Around the time Gould got there they went three straight years with no finals footy.

Based on what? How could you possibly know we aren't at potential? Because of how good we were forty years ago? Everything has changed since then. Professionalism meant a lot of clubs overtook us. Demographic change has eroded our geographic benefits.

How about when he took over the Knights?

We were underachieving for a very different reason to the Dragons. We were just under resourced. That's why we made the finals only 10 times in the 32 years between 1986 and 2019. I remember those early nineties sides and they were awful. Following that, some of those squads that Brian Smith won minor premierships with, Wayne Bennett would've struggled to get into the finals. Our 2019-2022 squad is good but there were obviously better ones.

He might've stopped them choking (for one year in three) but they were a strong club since the nineties. From the '99 decider until Bennett's first season in '09 they only missed the finals three times. In '05 they had the best squad in the NRL.

Anyway, Bennett is obviously a great coach while Arthur's isn't. But I think Arthur has proven himself to be a good coach and he's earnt the right to finish the year. If the squad is still good he will sort them out. If the squad is f**ked then Bennett wouldn't have helped anyway. The club has a plan for growth, and shitting ourselves and sacking merkins after a third of a season isn't the way to run a professional organisation.
1.) If it all came out in the wash we would have been a finals team

2.) If you win 50% of games and don’t make the finals then that is a failure if you’re a team with finals aspirations. Your metric is complete trash.

3.) Yes. Brad Arthur deserves credit for taking this team to a grand final in 2022. He’s also responsible for the team meandering and missing the finals.

4.) Damn what happened to Penrith having more resources than anyone and sweeping the field during that time? It’s almost as if they had a plan to get out of the rut they were in and they managed to achieve it. Do we have a plan or are we just going to bumble our way through the twilight years of Paulo, RCG, Lane et all?

5.) Based on the pedigree of the current roster I would say we have been underperforming since last season.

6.) Even at the Knights Bennett took them to a preliminary final. Every coach has bad seasons (our current coach had a bad season where we received the wooden spoon). Pretty telling that even during Wayne Bennett failed stint he took a side to week 3 of the finals.

7.) Pretty big claim to say Wayne Bennett would have struggled to get the 2001 and 2005 sides to the finals. How can you demonstrate this? Pretty amazing how St George were a strong club when Wayne Bennett went to them but when he left they magically turn into a mid tier club with limited resources. Am I doing it right? I’m not sure how what the Dragons were doing in the 90s is terrible relevant to what they did in 2010 either.

8.) I agree that Arthur should finish the season. If we miss the finals again and show no signs of improvement then I think the club should review his position. Incidentally do you think the Dragons made the wrong call when they sacked Nathan Brown when Wayne Bennett became available?
 

Poupou Escobar

Post Whore
Messages
85,732
1.) If it all came out in the wash we would have been a finals team
Some years we would and some years not.
2.) If you win 50% of games and don’t make the finals then that is a failure if you’re a team with finals aspirations. Your metric is complete trash.
Every team has finals aspirations. Fewer than half of them get there each year. That's a lot of failure. There must be someone to blame ffs
3.) Yes. Brad Arthur deserves credit for taking this team to a grand final in 2022. He’s also responsible for the team meandering and missing the finals.
So is he a good coach or a bad one then?
4.) Damn what happened to Penrith having more resources than anyone and sweeping the field during that time? It’s almost as if they had a plan to get out of the rut they were in and they managed to achieve it. Do we have a plan or are we just going to bumble our way through the twilight years of Paulo, RCG, Lane et all?
Any plan is only as good as its resourcing. Gould was able to get financial support from James Packer:

5.) Based on the pedigree of the current roster I would say we have been underperforming since last season.
I would describe our fading performances as caused by natural decline of our older players.
6.) Even at the Knights Bennett took them to a preliminary final. Every coach has bad seasons (our current coach had a bad season where we received the wooden spoon). Pretty telling that even during Wayne Bennett failed stint he took a side to week 3 of the finals.
And got absolutely belted in that game. It happens to the best of them.
7.) Pretty big claim to say Wayne Bennett would have struggled to get the 2001 and 2005 sides to the finals. How can you demonstrate this? Pretty amazing how St George were a strong club when Wayne Bennett went to them but when he left they magically turn into a mid tier club with limited resources. Am I doing it right? I’m not sure how what the Dragons were doing in the 90s is terrible relevant to what they did in 2010 either.
They were demonstrably better before he arrived than they were after he left.
8.) I agree that Arthur should finish the season. If we miss the finals again and show no signs of improvement then I think the club should review his position. Incidentally do you think the Dragons made the wrong call when they sacked Nathan Brown when Wayne Bennett became available?
Maybe Bennett made the wrong call by moving from St George to the Knights. Or anywhere else really. He's won nothing since 2010.
 

lucablight

First Grade
Messages
6,190
Some years we would and some years not.

Every team has finals aspirations. Fewer than half of them get there each year. That's a lot of failure. There must be someone to blame ffs

So is he a good coach or a bad one then?

Any plan is only as good as its resourcing. Gould was able to get financial support from James Packer:


I would describe our fading performances as caused by natural decline of our older players.

And got absolutely belted in that game. It happens to the best of them.

They were demonstrably better before he arrived than they were after he left.

Maybe Bennett made the wrong call by moving from St George to the Knights. Or anywhere else really. He's won nothing since 2010.
1.) We dropped way too many winnable games and it came back to bite us. That’s my point. You can excuse the games that you’re realistically not expected to win but if you drop ones you should be winning then you definitely rue those lost opportunities more despite your claim about some games not being worth more than others.

2.) I would say most teams have a realistic expectation of where they expect to finish or what they want to see. The Broncos for example would want to go one better this season because they would see themselves in a premiership window. The Tigers just want to see improvement and not get the spoon. So no it’s not as simple as “a lot of failure” because every team didn’t make the finals. It was for us last season though.

3.) I think he’s fine enough. I would like more than fine though. How many times have we won as underdogs in the finals during his tenure? It wouldn’t be very many. The only one I can think of is where we were slight underdogs against the Cowboys in 2022. I would like to see something different because I don’t think he really makes us play above our level when it matters.

4.) As I said before if you have the resources but don’t use them efficiently then does it matter? Is there anything to suggest we don’t have the resources to be doing better than we are right now?

5.) It’s possible that our declining performances are due to a decline in our older players but our defence hasn’t been very good since the middle of 2020 (when it was elite during the earlier part of the season). I don’t think they had declined back then so there’s more to it than that.

6.) They got belted by the eventual premiers who had the best roster that season. Bennett got the Knights to overachieve that season. Something that I wish Arthur got our squad to do more of.

7.) That data could also be explained by the Dragons having a better squad before Bennett arrived and an inferior squad and coach after he left.

8.) Bennett hasn’t won anything since 2010 but he’s still been to 2 grand finals. It took a while for the Broncos to get to that level again and the Rabbits fell apart after he left. If he was washed up the Rabbits wouldn’t be desperate for his services again.
 

T-Boon

Coach
Messages
15,417
One thing about Arthur is that while he is an average or maybe below average coach he has been prepared to take pay cuts on recent contract extensions which is apparently important to our club.
 

hineyrulz

Post Whore
Messages
149,373
One thing about Arthur is that while he is an average or maybe below average coach he has been prepared to take pay cuts on recent contract extensions which is apparently important to our club.
Baldie is earning more now than he ever has.
 

King-Gutho94

Coach
Messages
12,082
One thing about Arthur is that while he is an average or maybe below average coach he has been prepared to take pay cuts on recent contract extensions which is apparently important to our club.
I suppose when you have a 7 min drive to work you can afford to take a paycut here and there and earn less.

Spending less on fuel, not using tolls, he can duck home for a quick snack and a toilet break during work hours.

Its a dream job.
 

T-Boon

Coach
Messages
15,417
I suppose when you have a 7 min drive to work you can afford to take a paycut here and there and earn less.

Spending less on fuel, not using tolls, he can duck home for a quick snack and a toilet break during work hours.

Its a dream job.
Yeah it’s clever in his part
 

Poupou Escobar

Post Whore
Messages
85,732
1.) We dropped way too many winnable games and it came back to bite us.
Every game is winnable before it starts. Have a look at the odds. And while we've 'dropped' winnable games, the same can be said about our opposition when we've won. Look at all the times we've beaten Melbourne and Penrith in recent years. It all comes out in the wash.
That’s my point. You can excuse the games that you’re realistically not expected to win but if you drop ones you should be winning then you definitely rue those lost opportunities more despite your claim about some games not being worth more than others.
If you miss the finals by a single win then of course you'll look back (hindsight) and whinge about any given one-that-got-away. But you can't also ignore the wins you were expected to lose.

Then there's all the close games, decided by six points (an arbitrary number but it is a single converted try) or less. Luck plays a huge role in these games. Here's how we've fared in recent years. The year on year disparity in close games win rate shows a simple discrepancy in randomness (luck). There's no need to shoehorn an extra narrative onto it. Brad Arthur has either been lucky in close games or he is good at winning them. I say he's been lucky:

YearWins by 1-6Losses by 1-6Win rate (games decided by <7 points)
20241150%
20234450%
20226275%
20211325%
20209282%
20193443%
20183538%
20176275%
20164357%
20156460%
20143443%
Total/aggregate463458%
2.) I would say most teams have a realistic expectation of where they expect to finish or what they want to see. The Broncos for example would want to go one better this season because they would see themselves in a premiership window. The Tigers just want to see improvement and not get the spoon. So no it’s not as simple as “a lot of failure” because every team didn’t make the finals. It was for us last season though.
No I think every team has a target of eighth place at minimum. Last year it only took 13 wins.
3.) I think he’s fine enough. I would like more than fine though. How many times have we won as underdogs in the finals during his tenure? It wouldn’t be very many. The only one I can think of is where we were slight underdogs against the Cowboys in 2022. I would like to see something different because I don’t think he really makes us play above our level when it matters.
By 'above our level' do you mean giving 110%? Honestly, I don't think it's a real thing. Teams either play their best or they don't. In a contest of two unevenly matched teams, if the better team plays their best they will win. It's that simple. Ivan Cleary said as much in that Panthers doco before our first final in 2022.

So while Arthur's might have been lucky in close games over his career, he has been unlucky in the finals to play one third (six games) of his finals matches against clearly superior opposition (Penrith and Melbourne) and the only time one of them didn't play their best was 2017, when we got a lot closer than we should have.
4.) As I said before if you have the resources but don’t use them efficiently then does it matter? Is there anything to suggest we don’t have the resources to be doing better than we are right now?
Is there anything to suggest we do? We have done a lot worse than this in the past forty years. Meanwhile the only period that surpasses 2019-23 was '97-'01.
5.) It’s possible that our declining performances are due to a decline in our older players but our defence hasn’t been very good since the middle of 2020 (when it was elite during the earlier part of the season). I don’t think they had declined back then so there’s more to it than that.
We had the fourth best defence in 2021. Our oldest forwards that year were 28, which is shortly after their peak, according to RLET.
6.) They got belted by the eventual premiers who had the best roster that season. Bennett got the Knights to overachieve that season. Something that I wish Arthur got our squad to do more of.
Of our eight finals losses since 2017, five of them have been against the eventual premiers.
7.) That data could also be explained by the Dragons having a better squad before Bennett arrived and an inferior squad and coach after he left.
You implied they had limited resources before he arrived, which is false. I don't believe he would've gone there if they lacked resources, and I suspect he left because the money ran out.
8.) Bennett hasn’t won anything since 2010 but he’s still been to 2 grand finals. It took a while for the Broncos to get to that level again and the Rabbits fell apart after he left. If he was washed up the Rabbits wouldn’t be desperate for his services again.
He's obviously not washed up but they are desperate too. Lucky they have proven to be well resourced, winning a premiership under Maguire and making the preliminary final under Seibold and Demetriou. Whatever has gone wrong at Souths, resourcing isn't the problem. The issues are occurring behind the scenes and Demetriou would've been sacked because he was part of the problem.
 

Gary Gutful

Post Whore
Messages
52,036
I suppose when you have a 7 min drive to work you can afford to take a paycut here and there and earn less.

Spending less on fuel, not using tolls, he can duck home for a quick snack and a toilet break during work hours.

Its a dream job.
Not clogging up Parra’s S-Bends? So selfless, we should extend him.
 

the phantom menace

First Grade
Messages
9,191
When pou says we don’t have resources does he mean we don’t have the players?
No, he's somehow arguing that a club having more other vague financial resources to spend than another club somehow is more linked to on field performance than the quality of effort of the players and coach on a given day...

But despite banging on for years he's given no robust evidence to back that one up.
 

Poupou Escobar

Post Whore
Messages
85,732
When pou says we don’t have resources does he mean we don’t have the players?
Obviously it's players that ultimately matter. More than coaching or luck. But the way to accumulate the greatest amount of playing talent is resourcing, which gives some clubs benefits outside the cap compared to others. Resources are also how clubs acquire the best/most coaching staff, along with all the staff that enables superior recruitment/retention right down to pathways level.
 

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