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Victoria Derby

T

Tim Brasher

Juniors
Messages
444
All eyes now turn to the Derby on Saturday.. The race appears to be one of the more open derby fields in recent years with Pendragon, Headturner, Gallant Guru, Duelled and Hotel Grand. At this stage im not interested in Pendragon's $2.25.

NSW TAB Fixed Odds Market

Pendragon-$2.25
Headturner-$3.50
Hotel Grand-$5
Duelled-$6.25
Gallant Guru-7.50
Benicio-$13
Replicator-$15
Manton-$17
 
Macca_

Macca_

Coach
Messages
18,629
I have to stick with Headturner as I got on at 8/1.

Hotel Grand surely won't run. They couldn't. Put it away and have a real nice 4 year old on ya hands lads.

Pendragon hard to beat.

Duelled and Gallant Guru on the next line.

4 chances for mine, but the 2 favs look to be a bit above them... I'm hoping anyway :lol:
 
steaming stormer

steaming stormer

Juniors
Messages
2,309
I really liked Duelled's run last Sat. Looked like he'd have just kept running as the race got longer. Will run top 3 anyway, and I think him and Pendragon may fight it out in a great finish
 
Macca_

Macca_

Coach
Messages
18,629
Noms –

3- AAMI VICTORIA DERBY2500 MOf $1510000 Of $1500000 and $10000 trophies. 1st $900000 and trophies of $8000 to owner $1000 to trainer $1000 to jockey, 2nd $270000, 3rd $135000, 4th $67500, 5th $37500, 6th $30000, 7th $30000, 8th $30000. For Three-Years-Old. Set Weights. (GROUP 1). This race carries a SUPER VOBIS Nominators Bonus of $10,000 for qualified horses. No allowances for apprentices. Field Limit: 16+3 EM

No Horse Trainer Rating

1 AUSTRALIAN ARCH Stephen Theodore (63)
2 BENICIO Lee Freedman (84)
3 DANGER LOOMS John McArdle (91)
4 DESTINY'S DAY David Edwards (67)
5 DUELLED Graeme Rogerson (96)
6 EMPIRE GOLD Ken Keys (59)
7 ESCAPE ARTIST Peter White (62)
8 GALLANT GURU Leon Macdonald (91)
9 HEADTURNER John Hawkes (90)
10 HOTEL GRAND Anthony Cummings (104)
11 MAJORCA Bart Cummings (70)
12 MANTON John Hawkes (89)
13 ON THE KNOCKER (NZ) Geni Gillis (55)
14 ON THE MAP (NZ) Bart Cummings
15 PEGACHI Rick Hore-Lacy (64)
16 PENDRAGON (NZ) Bart Cummings (102.5)
17 PENTACOLO (NZ) Lee Freedman (62)
18 POINT MADE Brian Mayfield-Smith (74)
19 PORTLAND SPIRIT John Hawkes (70)
20 POWER OF DESTINY Kevin Moses (92)
21 REPLICATOR Anthony Cummings (91)
22 SHOTGUN SAXON John McArdle (71)
 
F

Freak

Juniors
Messages
1,394
Favorites race!!

I like Pendragon and Headturner.

I think class is on their side, comparing to the race on the weekend.
 
Macca_

Macca_

Coach
Messages
18,629
I'm expecting another head to head dual like last start Freak. Elvestroem vs Kempinsky all over again.

Although Duelled and Gallant Guru will be in the thick of things and can't be ignored.
 
T

Tim Brasher

Juniors
Messages
444
My only concern with Duelled is it is a one paced horse.... I hope McEvoy takes the horse to the lead and runs the race at a genuine clip making the derby a true staying test. If McEvoy can do that I think Duelled is a big chance...
 
N

Nuffs

Bench
Messages
4,553
i've liked manton in the derby since it's first start

i've really followed headturner this prep and he's going great

pendragon is a quality horse

i backed duelled last start and think it will get the 2500m

altrhough i do think the duelled/manton form isn't very good. they did only beat a listed level AT BEST on saturday

i'll have to look at the form on thurs and friday but i'm leaning towards headturner
 
F

Freak

Juniors
Messages
1,394
Would of loved to have seen Gods Own, Paratrooper and Dream Ballard in this race.
(Again maybe if the Derby's were not so long)

I think the race will be set up for the horses off the pace.

Hotel Grand is class but does has a tendancy not to settle in his races and if he pulls at all he will find 2500m too far. Duelled is over-rated and has been beaten convincingly when he has met the cream of the 3 year olds previously. He is however the horse on the improve and is by the great Redoutes Choice. I do think Duelled and Hotel Grand will kill each other up front though and set the race up for Headturner and Pendragon!

My bet will be on the quinella, unless the money pours in for one and not the other!!
 
T

Tim Brasher

Juniors
Messages
444
Nuffs, I wouldnt worry about The AAMI VAse form.. The start before that Pendragon beat Dueeld by a half head behind Hotel Grand in the Spring Champion at Randwick. As the week goes on Im liking Duelled more and more

I would also be very surprised if Hotel Grand starts in the Derby
 
N

Nuffs

Bench
Messages
4,553
don't get me wrong, i like duelled more than manton now. he outstayed manton which was a horse i thought would be the best 3yo stayer this year

that means he is my 3rd pick

does anyone know what time pendragon ran in the norman robinson? i can't seem to find it
 
N

Nuffs

Bench
Messages
4,553
Tim Brasher said:
Pendragon won the Norman Robinson in 2.03.51, which was the slowest 200m run out of three races on the day.

Astronomia and Activation won the Sky Blue Plate and The Coongy Handicap in 2.00.6

Link

http://www.melbourneracingclub.net.au/racinginfo/pastresults/pastresults.htm#15Oct
Click to expand...

thanks for that

reason being that the time for the AAMI Vase was something around 2.14 and it was a slow track. and yes i know that the AAMI Vase is 2040m so they would have ran about 2.11 or so over 2000m

so by my calcualtions they were around 6 seconds slower running on a slow track. i'd expect about a 4-5 second difference

i would have thought that the norman robinson time was much quicker but it is obviously not so much
 
Macca_

Macca_

Coach
Messages
18,629
NSW TAB fixed odds after barrier draw -

No. Selection Win Place
001 Pendragon $2.65 $1.35
004 Headturner $3.50 $1.60
003 Duelled $5.00 $1.75
005 Gallant Guru $7.00 $2.25
009 Benicio $13.00 $3.50
006 Replicator $21.00 $5.00
008 Manton $21.00 $5.00
002 Danger Looms $51.00 $11.00
010 Point Made $51.00 $13.50
007 Power of Destiny $67.00 $13.50
011 Majorca $67.00 $17.50
012 Shotgun Saxon $67.00 $17.50
013 Portland Spirit $67.00 $17.50
014 Escape Artist $151.00 $38.50
015 On The Map $151.00 $38.50
016 On The Knocker $251.00 $63.50
 
Moffo

Moffo

Referee
Messages
23,986
I really can't see Pendragon losing (famous last words)

What do you see as the weakness with it Macca?
 
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