OT: Current Affairs and Politics

[Gronk]

F**king hell! How many sandwiches is that?

I called Peter Overton and he said it was enough sandwiches to fill 10,000 olympic pools.

 

[Poupou Escobar]

What are you on about?

Deregulation and the legitimacy crisis of government institutions

 

[Hollywood Jesus]

If Hunters dad was Joe Bootin from butt f**k county Arkansas, he'd be either dead or in jail, or maybe both. There's no doubt Hunter has and does benefit from being the son of ex VP Biden.

Just as there is no doubt Trump is leveraging his position to enrich himself and his family in such an overt manner that it's impossible for me to see that anyone with more than half a brain claiming he isn't can be doing anything but trolling, or having a laugh.

I wouldn't be surprised to find out Trump has been leveraging his position.

But there's a difference. Oh, Bandy, I think we'll see that there's a very big difference...

 

[Bandwagon]

I wouldn't be surprised to find out Trump has been leveraging his position.

But there's a difference. Oh, Bandy, I think we'll see that there's a very big difference...

We may well do, and it may well not be in the direction you're inferring here.

A lot hinges on the election result, and the way I see it those "quiet Trumpers" we keep hearing about better be a f**king large demographic, or the Donald is toast.

 

[Hollywood Jesus]

A lot hinges on the election result, and the way I see it those "quiet Trumpers" we keep hearing about better be a f**king large demographic, or the Donald is toast.

That's a true post, mate.

If Trump loses then they'll all just go on their merry ways again.

Interesting times, indeed. For the record, so I can be mocked if it doesn't go my way, I put $1k on The Donald to win @ $2.70.

 

[Gronk]

PM Penny holding them to account.

 

[Bandwagon]

That's a true post, mate.

If Trump loses then they'll all just go on their merry ways again.

Interesting times, indeed. For the record, so I can be mocked if it doesn't go my way, I put $1k on The Donald to win @ $2.70.

Geez, I really think you've done your dough mate. Now I 'aint so confident as to put my hard earned down on the result, but if I was inclined to, I'd want a shit load better than 2.70 to back the Donald at this point.

For what it's worth my predictions are

The Dems will hold the House, with an increased margin

Biden will win the popular vote with over 50%

Biden will take the electoral college with 300 + votes

Senate will be very tight, perhaps even 50/50 with control going to the president, so again as above that would mean the Dems also take the senate. But I'd qualify that by saying 49/51 Dem/GOP split would be no surprise.

Now if we get that result, I got two other predictions, firstly, The Donald won't go quietly into the night, he'll go out swinging roundhouses just hoping one will connect. And secondly, significant elements within the Dems won't forgive and forget, they will pursue the Donald 'till the end of days.

 

[Poupou Escobar]

Geez, I really think you've done your dough mate. Now I 'aint so confident as to put my hard earned down on the result, but if I was inclined to, I'd want a shit load better than 2.70 to back the Donald at this point.

For what it's worth my predictions are

The Dems will hold the House, with an increased margin

Biden will win the popular vote with over 50%

Biden will take the electoral college with 300 + votes

Senate will be very tight, perhaps even 50/50 with control going to the president, so again as above that would mean the Dems also take the senate. But I'd qualify that by saying 49/51 Dem/GOP split would be no surprise.

Now if we get that result, I got two other predictions, firstly, The Donald won't go quietly into the night, he'll go out swinging roundhouses just hoping one will connect. And secondly, significant elements within the Dems won't forgive and forget, they will pursue the Donald 'till the end of days.

Hopeful 'predictions'. Reminds me of 2016.

 

[Bandwagon]

Hopeful 'predictions'. Reminds me of 2016.

We'll see, personally I think banking on an even bigger polling error than 2016 with that carrying through the rust belt is what I'd call wishful thinking.

As an aside, 2012 underestimated Obama's win, by almost as much as Clinton's national margin was overestimated in 2016, so why would one assume that if there is a polling error, it'd favor the Donald?

 

[Gronk]

What's the USA version of ...

We are one, but we are many
And from all the lands on earth we come
We'll share a dream and sing with one voice
"I am, you are, we are Australian"

 

[Poupou Escobar]

We'll see, personally I think banking on an even bigger polling error than 2016 with that carrying through the rust belt is what I'd call wishful thinking.

As an aside, 2012 underestimated Obama's win, by almost as much as Clinton's national margin was overestimated in 2016, so why would one assume that if there is a polling error, it'd favor the Donald?

I suppose Republicans are less likely to trust polling organisations.

 

[Bandwagon]

I suppose Republicans are less likely to trust polling organisations.

Why would that be, particularly given the Republican party engages pollsters to poll for them, and why would that be a thing now, but not in 2012?

I understand the narrative, but hey, that doesn't mean it's of any real value.

 

[Poupou Escobar]

Why would that be, particularly given the Republican party engages pollsters to poll for them, and why would that be a thing now, but not in 2012?

I understand the narrative, but hey, that doesn't mean it's of any real value.

Polling is becoming increasingly unreliable. The recent federal election in Australia surprised everyone as well. So too Brexit. The why doesn't matter. It's all just speculation, or 'narrative' if you prefer.

 

[Gronk]

Trump just doesn't get it.

 

[strider]

Trump just doesn't get it.

Nah the circles are just to stop Joe from fondling the attendees kids

 

[Bandwagon]

Polling is becoming increasingly unreliable. The recent federal election in Australia surprised everyone as well. So too Brexit. The why doesn't matter. It's all just speculation, or 'narrative' if you prefer.

That's simply not true, there's this whole thing there that a few very prominent examples are used to discredit a much larger sample size.

And that's without recognising that the 2016 national result fell well within the margin of error for many poll analysists State results were poor in the rust belt. They got the weighting way wrong there.

Clinton won the popular vote by 2.1% https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election

RCP for example had her @ + 3.2 Nov 8, that's well within their margin of error.

Anyways, as usual you've avoided the point, the claim you pulled out of your arse re Republicans being less likely to trust polling agencies ( in the context of answering truthfully to polling )

The "silent Trumper" does not exist as an electorally meaningful demographic. There's not a swathe of Trump voters out there that are telling pollsters they are voting Dem, it's a f**king nonsense.

If the national poll averages still have Biden @ +5 or more leading into election day, The Donald is toast. If he some how manages to pull it back to a number with a 2 or 3 in front of it, he's a big chance, anything with a +4 point something is a toss up.

Depending upon your source Biden's sitting at between +7 and +10 at the moment, here's RCP's polling averages 2016 vs 2020

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/writeup/biden_vs_trump_compared_to_clinton_vs_trump.html

There's some tightening going on there, and that could continue, and it could gain momentum for Trump, I don't dismiss that as possible, but I'd dismiss out of hand that they're wrong by a 4 or 5 point margin, that aint happening.

 

[Poupou Escobar]

It's very exciting.

 

[Hollywood Jesus]

And that's without recognising that the 2016 national result fell well within the margin of error for many poll analysists State results were poor in the rust belt. They got the weighting way wrong there.

So...they got it wrong where it counted

There's a bit of evidence showing Trump is actually in a decent spot at the moment, holding up really well in pre-poll voting in key states. This should suit Democrats but it isn't as much as it should, yet the preferences of those who still haven't voted is still strongly Republican in some key battleground states.

Nate Silver is hinting that the post-polling mail in count may not favour the Democrats like everyone thought it would, too.

Either way, I'm a gambler, so...

And there's far too much flip flopping and avoiding putting your cards on the table and trying to worm out of shit because of semantics in this place. So I staked my position, just like with house prices. If I'm wrong, have at it, folks

 

[hindy111]

That's a true post, mate.

If Trump loses then they'll all just go on their merry ways again.

Interesting times, indeed. For the record, so I can be mocked if it doesn't go my way, I put $1k on The Donald to win @ $2.70.

I have a friend who said Clinton's along with a heap of other rich and famous people will go to jail if Trump wins so it won't happen.
Those Clinton's covered some dirt.

 

[Hollywood Jesus]

There will be shit going down no matter who wins.

If Trump wins then the likes of the Bidens and Clintons may be in trouble.

If Biden wins then, as Bandy said, Trump is in shit.

Either way there'll be some fun to be had.