OT: Current Affairs and Politics

[Bandwagon]

So...they got it wrong where it counted

Yeah look, as it turns out that's true. But that's not the problem. I mean pollsters are going to get it wrong, it's why that matters. And the fact is they didn't think the rust belt would matter, so they weren't paying enough attention to what was going on, and so they got it horribly wrong.

So the question becomes do you think they're gonna just make the same mistake over again, after recognising the problem? For mine that would make no sense.

There's a bit of evidence showing Trump is actually in a decent spot at the moment, holding up really well in pre-poll voting in key states. This should suit Democrats but it isn't as much as it should, yet the preferences of those who still haven't voted is still strongly Republican in some key battleground states.

Nate Silver is hinting that the post-polling mail in count may not favour the Democrats like everyone thought it would, too.

Either way, I'm a gambler, so...

And there's far too much flip flopping and avoiding putting your cards on the table and trying to worm out of shit because of semantics in this place. So I staked my position, just like with house prices. If I'm wrong, have at it, folks

I'm not so sure that the pre poll voting is going that way, but anyways, I put my predictions up above, I'll go a little further and say I reckon Trump's polling and share of the national vote will top out at 45-46, and Biden's will bottom at 50-51, and that RCP and 538 will both be within 2 points of the national margin ( they're currently about a point apart ) come the last day of polling.

 

[Gronk]

I have a friend who said Clinton's along with a heap of other rich and famous people will go to jail if Trump wins so it won't happen.
Those Clinton's covered some dirt.

My dog walker's neighbour said...

 

[Bandwagon]

There will be shit going down no matter who wins.

If Trump wins then the likes of the Bidens and Clintons may be in trouble.

If Biden wins then, as Bandy said, Trump is in shit.

Either way there'll be some fun to be had.

I'd qualify what I said there and say that should Biden win, that it might just be he's enough of an establishment player to push that if any kind of sanity is to return to US politics, better to let sleeping dogs lie.

 

[Gronk]

Meanwhile our teflon premier has been protected by Murdoch circling his wagons around her

What I dont know wont hurt me with her dodgy BF.

Better, shredding the paperwork on $250m worth of pork-barrelling grants.

But but dictator dan.

 

[hindy111]

My dog walker's neighbour said...

Mate it's common knowledge. Turns out HJ was right all along

 

[strider]

Meanwhile our teflon premier has been protected by Murdoch circling his wagons around her

What I dont know wont hurt me with her dodgy BF.

Better, shredding the paperwork on $250m worth of pork-barrelling grants.

But but dictator dan.

yeah - that sounds dodgy as f**k .... but then pork barrelling is a aussie tradition, so why did they feel the need to even shred it - how much more was in the docs they shredded? ...... I still find it hard to believe they is no electronic backup

 

[Gronk]

Mate it's common knowledge. Turns out HJ was right all along

With so many outrageous stories are invented on social media to give political traction, the average Joe is best to dismiss all of them. Of course some of the stories are true (Epstein, Prince Andrew!) but we're all best off letting the cops do their work and read it in the news when real shit happens.

Merkins who spread these rumours because they *know* really means that they read it on the internet. Yeah not the most reliable of sources.

 

[I'm a loser baby...]

Yeah Hindy, just switch that brain off and let the authorities tell you what to think. Have another gin.

 

[Gronk]

Yeah Hindy, just switch that brain off and let the authorities tell you what to think. Have another gin.

Better than getting your filtered info from websites that say what you want to hear, which only feeds your cognitive biases.

 

[Haynzy]

With so many outrageous stories are invented on social media to give political traction, the average Joe is best to dismiss all of them. Of course some of the stories are true (Epstein, Prince Andrew!) but we're all best off letting the cops do their work and read it in the news when real shit happens.

Merkins who spread these rumours because they *know* really means that they read it on the internet. Yeah not the most reliable of sources.

Sounds like the basic rule for anything on social media.

 

[I'm a loser baby...]

Better than getting your filtered info from websites that say what you want to hear, which only feeds your cognitive biases.

From the very start you've made this claim. I could say the same about you.

 

[Gronk]

From the very start you've made this claim. I could say the same about you.

Oh really ? What outrageous out of the box views do I propagate ?

 

[Gronk]

Meanwhile the Minister for Agriculture, Drought and Emergency Management is telling Australians to change banks because that climate change rubbish.

 

[I'm a loser baby...]

Oh really ? What outrageous out of the box views do I propagate ?

None at all. But that isn't what I said.

 

[I'm a loser baby...]

As Plato said, a man who doesn't think anything controversial is a man who doesn't think. Period.

 

[Poupou Escobar]

Oh really ? What outrageous out of the box views do I propagate ?

That the only bias in media is in favour of the right. And yet you lap up everything the mainstream media have to say.

 

[Gronk]

That the only bias in media is in favour of the right. And yet you lap up everything the mainstream media have to say.

Actually that's what you think I think and you could have a distorted view because of your own biases, which are a product of your cognitive dissonance.

 

[Poupou Escobar]

Why would I have cognitive dissonance? The media have proven they are selective about which 'facts' they promote. I don't trust any of them. To me the only value in media reporting is the 'metadata'.

 

[Gronk]

Why would I have cognitive dissonance? The media have proven they are selective about which 'facts' they promote. I don't trust any of them. To me the only value in media reporting is the 'metadata'.

You play the devils advocate a lot. Are you shit stirring or is it a sign that cognitive dissonance is at work ?

Take it easy. Call 000 if you feel unsafe.

 

[Poupou Escobar]

You play the devils advocate a lot. Are you shit stirring or is it a sign that cognitive dissonance is at work ?

Take it easy. Call 000 if you feel unsafe.

I just don't understand how you draw a line from objectivity to cognitive dissonance.