OT: Current Affairs and Politics

[hindy111]

Most merkins love lockdowns if they don't get hit in the wallet. And thanks to JobKeeper or whatever the f**k it's called these days, most lockdown lovers aren't yet suffering financially. Therefore they're not yet looking for politicians to blame.

Some sole traders I've heard get it plus and go out and make 2k+ a week

 

[strider]

There's a bit about, listening to him they're in the "quiet Trumper" camp, That basically means they are allowing for in their methodology that a percentage of their respondents are going to vote for Trump, but when asked about it will tell you otherwise, so weight their results accordingly.

They mention Trafalgar, who's also a big supporter and promoter of this idea, and used it to pick the 2016 result.

Personally I think it's a crock of shit born of the rights growing tendency to publicly play the victim over the culture wars.

I would have no doubt there are quiet trumpers .... just like there are probably quiet Bideners .... and quiet whateverers all the time

there are always going to be people who won't give their honest opinion cos they are scared of being ridiculed .... and the passionate hate of trump would make me believe its probably even more likely to result in people who have time for trump not wanting to admit it

but i would also agree making up ways to weight polls is just plucking numbers out of the sky - what weight will you put on it? how will you ever know?

 

[Bandwagon]

Whether or not they're actually victims, if you believe they see themselves as victims (and it appears you do) then it's not a crock of shit that quiet Trumpers would be a real thing.

Yes I readily concede that it's a logical progression that if one were being victimized one might be inclined to hide the thing for which they are being victimized, that makes perfect sense. I feel that's the line of reasoning that has led to the recognition of this particular sub demographic.

Except I make this observation in the context of the culture wars, where the right's new found indulgence in embracing victimhood is worn quite proudly as a badge of honour. I also make the distinction that logic plays little to no part in the culture wars.

Now when you look at these pollsters that are pushing this as part of their methodology, and as the primary reason for their polls variance from the mean, we're talking quite a serious number of points. often in the range 4 - 6, now that's statistically quite significant.

So to clarify, it's not that I believe that these people do not exist at all, rather that their numbers are small and inconsequential, and that logic would tell you also that their numbers would be greater in areas with greater Democrat support, where they'll feel more isolated, rather than areas with reasonable GOP support, where they can be amongst their own, because as members of tribes we find security in numbers. That again makes them less a relevant as a voting bloc, if indeed their numbers are significant enough to described as a bloc at all. .

 

[Bandwagon]

I would have no doubt there are quiet trumpers .... just like there are probably quiet Bideners .... and quiet whateverers all the time

there are always going to be people who won't give their honest opinion cos they are scared of being ridiculed .... and the passionate hate of trump would make me believe its probably even more likely to result in people who have time for trump not wanting to admit it

All true, I explain what i mean more in the post above.

but i would also agree making up ways to weight polls is just plucking numbers out of the sky - what weight will you put on it? how will you ever know?

Every single pollster does this, that's why demographics are so important to them. They're trying to get a representative sample, which is bloody near impossible when you're dealing with relatively small sample sizes.

So they weight their sample against known demographics ( a much larger sample ) in order to homogenise it enough so as to be representative.

That's why when you look at the averages of polling ( these are also weighted ) for 2016, the national numbers were pretty close to the end result, as the sample size is so large, yet they got the polling wrong in some, as it turned out, very important state races, because they got the weighting wrong, which becomes much more influential due to far less polling so a far smaller sample size.

 

[Gary Gutful]

Mate there is no EVIDENCE.

You aren't some world renown mega sleuth that can unravel the enigma that is Trump and point to anything that he has done that is ILEGAL and shame all the US deep State Intelligence agencies with your super powers. It just isn't there. If you can't own up to that then you aren't being moderate at all, but just one of those left wing Trump hating nutters you pretend to hate and ridicule.

Looks like I can see Trumps flaws, which aren't illegal, but all you see is illegal corruption like Phantoms or Ghosts that seem to be haunting you and all the other nutters in the world.

Talk about fringe bias. I am open to prosecuting and jailing any Government official including any President(including Trump) IF it can be proven that he has done something wrong. In fact I have said if a crime is committed by any person in a position of power no matter what sphere of society, Doctors, Priests, Lawyers, CEO's, Politicians etc., their sentence should be double if not triple what a regular citizen would normally get, not less as is the case for most of them now. They are in a position of power over a usually helpless, weak, desperate or uninformed group in society that have allowed them to gain those positions for the betterment of whichever group of society they are meant to represent. Not to take advantage of them and ingratiate themselves. They have a fiduciary duty that they have betrayed.

Anyway, for your own sake mate try to adjust your extreme left point of view and maybe come a little more to the centre left like most of society, then maybe you will realise that the sky isn't falling under the Trump administration and things until the COVID-19 crap hit the world were pretty rosie and as good as they have ever been for a hell of a long time. You may then also realise that you feel much happier about most thing in life too.

Just a thought mate.

You absolute dickhead. I am right of centre. I have made a living being right of centre. You should not assume anything.

I tried to take partisanship out of the conversation but you couldn’t f**ken help yourself.

 

[Gronk]

Because if a sitting President has to stand down because of all the type of alleged corruption that is being unearthed right now, makes Water Gate look legal, then millions of peoples fragile dream state will be broken and not trust any of them. Especially someone that Biden has hand picked as his running mate. What does that say for her at the very least?

Depending of the level of alleged corruption that is exposed and he is charged with, people may just say we can't have anyone holding office that he has endorsed. NO FREAKIN WAY!! Right?

Criminals generally bring other criminals into their gang, right? They don't bring the town priest in to it, not unless he is a pedo that is.

History says hi. Let’s wind back the clock ....


WASHINGTON – The Senate on Wednesday voted to acquit President Donald Trump of both counts in his impeachment trial.

Forty-eight senators, including one Republican, found Trump guilty of abuse of power, while 52, all Republicans, voted to acquit him.

The president was also impeached on the charge of obstruction of Congress, in which all 53 Republicans found him not guilty and the remaining 47 senators voted to convict.

Sen. Mitt Romney, who delivered a searing condemnation of the president’s actions earlier in the day on the floor of the Senate, broke with his party to vote to convict Trump for abuse of power.

Trump was accused of abusing his power by pressuring Ukraine to announce a probe into former Vice President Joe Biden and his son Hunter.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/05/trump-acquitted-in-impeachment-trial.html

Unsure about your phrasing “has to stand down”. Who determines when he has to stand down ? Impeachment. When does that happen ? When there is a majority in the senate. But their system does not allow the removal of POTUS when he controls the senate - round and round we go.

It’s like a murder trial and the 12 jury are mates of the the accused.

So explain to me again how he is so catastrophically corrupt and, if so, how he would be impeached knowing how their system works ?

 

[Bandwagon]

You absolute dickhead. I am right of centre. I have made a living being right of centre. You should not assume anything.

I tried to take partisanship out of the conversation but you couldn’t f**ken help yourself.

He fails to understand the most basic of premises that govern the whole shit show

A sitting president can only be impeached by congress, and convicted by the senate.

End of/

 

[hindy111]

I would have no doubt there are quiet trumpers .... just like there are probably quiet Bideners .... and quiet whateverers all the time

there are always going to be people who won't give their honest opinion cos they are scared of being ridiculed .... and the passionate hate of trump would make me believe its probably even more likely to result in people who have time for trump not wanting to admit it

but i would also agree making up ways to weight polls is just plucking numbers out of the sky - what weight will you put on it? how will you ever know?

Mik loves Trump. Quote "he is a f**king legend that merkin. f**k the Chinese merkins"

 

[hindy111]

I'm not the brightest man to have lived. But I feel like Trump creates division between groups which also causes hate between people.
I feel the is dangerous. It becomes an us vs them.

 

[hindy111]

@Hollywood Jesus how about a bet.
Loser puts $200 on the bar for whoever wants to meet on here sometime.

I take Biden.

 

[TheRam]

You absolute dickhead. I am right of centre. I have made a living being right of centre. You should not assume anything.

I tried to take partisanship out of the conversation but you couldn’t f**ken help yourself.

So you say and yet you are an extremist like any lefty that thinks he is rational who is willing to condemn someone without any proof. Yeah good one El Righty.

Sorry don't buy it. Either you are reasonable and therefore look for proof to make up your mind or you are not and just pretend to be. You sound more and more like the people you profess you can't stand and think you are better then.

Like I said, show proof or you are just a nutter with a bee in your bonnet like all the other whack jobs who just hate Trump.

Other then insults....crickets.

 

[TheRam]

History says hi. Let’s wind back the clock ....


WASHINGTON – The Senate on Wednesday voted to acquit President Donald Trump of both counts in his impeachment trial.

Forty-eight senators, including one Republican, found Trump guilty of abuse of power, while 52, all Republicans, voted to acquit him.

The president was also impeached on the charge of obstruction of Congress, in which all 53 Republicans found him not guilty and the remaining 47 senators voted to convict.

Sen. Mitt Romney, who delivered a searing condemnation of the president’s actions earlier in the day on the floor of the Senate, broke with his party to vote to convict Trump for abuse of power.

Trump was accused of abusing his power by pressuring Ukraine to announce a probe into former Vice President Joe Biden and his son Hunter.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/05/trump-acquitted-in-impeachment-trial.html

Unsure about your phrasing “has to stand down”. Who determines when he has to stand down ? Impeachment. When does that happen ? When there is a majority in the senate. But their system does not allow the removal of POTUS when he controls the senate - round and round we go.

It’s like a murder trial and the 12 jury are mates of the the accused.

So explain to me again how he is so catastrophically corrupt and, if so, how he would be impeached knowing how their system works ?

Hysterical...Romney Hahaha.... I won't dignify your ridiculous crap with a response.

 

[Hollywood Jesus]

Except I make this observation in the context of the culture wars, where the right's new found indulgence in embracing victimhood is worn quite proudly as a badge of honour. I also make the distinction that logic plays little to no part in the culture wars.

All well and good, except the Culture Wars are largely being played out on the internet by people who want attention (on both sides).

I think the Quiet Trumpers are people who agree with the idea but don't wanna go around and scream in anyone's face for clicks.

How many of them are there? Well, we'll find that out in a couple of days, won't we?

 

[Hollywood Jesus]

@Hollywood Jesus how about a bet.
Loser puts $200 on the bar for whoever wants to meet on here sometime.

I take Biden.

I've already made my bet, mate, and I already owe a round from earlier this year. So, sorry, but not gonna take you up on that.

 

[Gronk]

Hysterical...Romney Hahaha.... I won't dignify your ridiculous crap with a response.

Thought so. Pissed your pants again.

 

[Gronk]

 

[Bandwagon]

All well and good, except the Culture Wars are largely being played out on the internet by people who want attention (on both sides).

I think the Quiet Trumpers are people who agree with the idea but don't wanna go around and scream in anyone's face for clicks.

How many of them are there? Well, we'll find that out in a couple of days, won't we?

That may well be how you think of them, but that isn't the voting bloc that these pollsters are using in their methodology. Sure, you'd think if a little "shy", they might respond as undecided, and I'd buy that, but undecideds aint a big feature of polling right now, least far less than they were in 2016.

And I guess that's problem for the Donald right now as far as polling goes, with few undecideds there's f**k all room for movement in either camp, and we haven't and wont see the shift in support to Trump that happened in the fortnight leading into the election in 2016.

Basically for these "quiet Trumpers" to turn the election, they would need to move the dial 5 - 6 points in a number of races, I just don't see that happening. If it does, we may as well throw polling out the window, because it's then proving to be worthless.

But yeah, we'll begin to find out in a coupla days, though it's likely gonna be a week or so if the results are remotely close, it'll take a landslide either way to know the result Wednesday morning.

 

[Gary Gutful]

So you say and yet you are an extremist like any lefty that thinks he is rational who is willing to condemn someone without any proof. Yeah good one El Righty.

Sorry don't buy it. Either you are reasonable and therefore look for proof to make up your mind or you are not and just pretend to be. You sound more and more like the people you profess you can't stand and think you are better then.

Like I said, show proof or you are just a nutter with a bee in your bonnet like all the other whack jobs who just hate Trump.

Other then insults....crickets.

You’ve lost the plot.

I consistently pointed out that both Trump and Biden are dodgy and somehow this has now descended into you trying to tell me that I am a lefty.

I’m the words of Andrew Neil to Ben Shapiro “If only you knew how ridiculous that statement is, you wouldn’t have said it”.

Do you honestly think you are making any sense? Both Trump and Biden are dodgy. There’s plenty of evidence on both of you care to expand your mind.

 

[Gary Gutful]

Hysterical...Romney Hahaha.... I won't dignify your ridiculous crap with a response.

But somehow you keep insisting that I must respond to yours?

 

[Gronk]

DFAT have a do not travel status on USA because of civil unrest.

[Yes I know we can't go there without a good excuse, so don't @ me.]

https://www.smartraveller.gov.au/destinations/americas/united-states-america