The run to the finals

[nswarrior]

In the 10 games since we lost Barnett we're 5-5, and the only top 8 team we've beaten is Cronulla the week after Barnett's injury.

In the 7 since we lost Metcalf, we're 4-3 with no top 8 scalps, and one of those wins was the miracle at McDonald.

You'd think we'd be in freefall down the table, and tbh probably deserve to be.

But instead we're clear in 4th, only 1 win behind the Dogs, and with a reasonable chance of actually jumping them by finals. What a wild season...

I was looking at the same thing yesterday. We were 3rd when Barnett got injured and 4th when Luke got injured. Overall we have gone better than expected

The other interesting thing is we have won 4 and lost 2 with Boyd. He was dropped for that loss against Dogs.

The next 2 games and finals obviously is when we will notice the difference

ps - the miracle at Newcastle cancels out with the last minute loss to the Dolphins

 

[Manu Vatuvei]

This is an inexact science because of how the form of opposition teams fluctuates through the year, but as the top 8 is pretty close to locked in it's become more apparent how lucky we were with the draw.

We've played 8 games against the other 7 teams in the top 8

We've played/will play 16 games against the 10 teams outside the 8

Can't deny that it turned out to be a pretty lopsided draw in our favour.

 

[Penrose Warrior]

This is an inexact science because of how the form of opposition teams fluctuates through the year, but as the top 8 is pretty close to locked in it's become more apparent how lucky we were with the draw.

We've played 8 games against the other 7 teams in the top 8

We've played/will play 16 games against the 10 teams outside the 8

Can't deny that it turned out to be a pretty lopsided draw in our favour.

Yeah I'm a believer in this viewpoint. It seems negative, but to me it's absolutely true. You could not, honestly, have scripted a better draw for us.

Apart from the Broncos, we have played a single game against the rest of the top 8. Even if you tried to program that at the start of the year, you couldn't.

Are we the 4th best side in the comp? Nah. I don't mean to be cynical but we aren't. We're probably 7th or 8th. But hey, we know we've had plenty of adversity over the years so we haven't just got to 4th falling over, and things have still gone against us. We have done a lot right.

 

[Blair]

Yeah I'm a believer in this viewpoint. It seems negative, but to me it's absolutely true. You could not, honestly, have scripted a better draw for us.

Apart from the Broncos, we have played a single game against the rest of the top 8. Even if you tried to program that at the start of the year, you couldn't.

Are we the 4th best side in the comp? Nah. I don't mean to be cynical but we aren't. We're probably 7th or 8th. But hey, we know we've had plenty of adversity over the years so we haven't just got to 4th falling over, and things have still gone against us. We have done a lot right.

Plus our last two games, whilst against non-top-eighters, will be tough. That's good preparation for September.

 

[Penrose Warrior]

Plus our last two games, whilst against non-top-eighters, will be tough. That's good preparation for September.

Well yeah, after the Eels absolutely belted the in-form Roosters, that's no pushover. And the Sea Eagles won that touch football game against the Phins pretty convincingly. I think we're fortunate that not a lot of them like DCE, so the final round might not be as sentimental as it could be

 

[vvvrulz]

No argument from me that we had a very favorable draw, but I don't want to go as far as saying we don't deserve our top four spot. This is a ridiculously tough competition where no game is a gimme including playing the spooners. ALL the teams from 4-17 have blown hot and cold all year - Brisbane were woeful at first under Madge, Sharks + Fins and Chooks sublime to ridiculous, Penrith sat dead last.

Being 4th is not necessarily the same as being the 4th best team in the comp at this moment, which we aren't, but barring a couple of nightmare games in AAMI and Vegas we've rarely stayed out of the fight week in & out despite our injury toll.

Raiders, Storm and Dogs were the consistent teams all year, and I'm satisfied we're the 4th most consistent team.

 

[Thatwasnthighref]

I dunno if our draw is as soft as we might think it is.

If we’re measuring the quality of the draw by the # of matches against (current) top 8 opposition - we’ve played 9, which includes 2 each against the Raiders and Broncs.

Compared to the other top 4 teams:

The Storm and Dogs have had similar schedules – 11 games against current top 8 teams, with an incredible 4 ‘doubles’ each. Storm had/have Penrith, Sharks, Roosters and Brisbane twice each; Dogs had/have Sharks, Roosters, Broncs and Penrith twice each.

But the Raiders have only had 7 matches against top 8 teams all year, and only once have they played another top 8 team twice – being us.

In terms of the run into the finals – again, the Storm and Dogs have got the tough end of the stick. The last 5 rounds for both clubs is against current top 8 teams. We have just the 1 top 8 game (v Dogs) over that period, while the Raiders last 5 weeks consists of 1 top 8 game (Penrith last week) and a bye.

I know it’s a moving target with some teams bouncing in and out of the 8 just in the last few weeks alone. But based on today’s table as it stands, I think there’s a pretty compelling argument for the Raiders having the softest draw – by far – of the top 4. While the Storm and Dogs might be wondering if the footy gods still haven’t forgiven them for their cap mischief.

 

[SpaceMonkey]

In the 10 games since we lost Barnett we're 5-5, and the only top 8 team we've beaten is Cronulla the week after Barnett's injury.

In the 7 since we lost Metcalf, we're 4-3 with no top 8 scalps, and one of those wins was the miracle at McDonald.

You'd think we'd be in freefall down the table, and tbh probably deserve to be.

But instead we're clear in 4th, only 1 win behind the Dogs, and with a reasonable chance of actually jumping them by finals. What a wild season...

The difference between us and almost every other team this season is we win pretty much every game we’re expected to. The first titans game is the only one we dropped that we had no real right to- maybe the Dolphins but they were coming off a hot streak at that point too.

 

[SpaceMonkey]

I suspect by the end of he season all the top teams draws will look soft in hindsight, because the teams you beat are the ones that didn’t get the two points, and they’re the ones that aren’t in the 8 at the end of the year.

 

[Manu Vatuvei]

I dunno if our draw is as soft as we might think it is.

If we’re measuring the quality of the draw by the # of matches against (current) top 8 opposition - we’ve played 9, which includes 2 each against the Raiders and Broncs.

Oh yeah you're right. Bad mistake by me.

9 games against the top 7 teams and 15 games against the other 10.

The most even distribution would be 10 against the top 7 and 14 against the other 10, so we've still had a favourable draw but only 1 game off an "average" draw when measured using my relatively arbitrary metric.

There are always outliers too - like the Sharks were absolute crap when we played them but are top 8. We absolutely should've beaten that weakened Panthers side we played. On the flipside, the first time we played the Dolphins they were a top-8 quality team. That same basic line-up was putting 50 on teams regularly and we kept them try-less for 70 minutes.

 

[Manu Vatuvei]

The difference between us and almost every other team this season is we win pretty much every game we’re expected to. The first titans game is the only one we dropped that we had no real right to- maybe the Dolphins but they were coming off a hot streak at that point too.

Yeah, ironic really since according to the outdated stereotypes we're supposed to be hard to predict. Really, under Webster we are pretty good at grinding out wins against average opposition but lack the extra class to beat the top teams.

 

[Penrose Warrior]

But the Raiders have only had 7 matches against top 8 teams all year, and only once have they played another top 8 team twice – being us.

Wasn't one of the major talking points of the off-season about how Ricky Stuart said his side was dudded in the draw?!??!

 

[Thatwasnthighref]

Wasn't one of the major talking points of the off-season about how Ricky Stuart said his side was dudded in the draw?!??!

Oh was it? I hadn’t heard that one.

Might’ve been against predicted top 8 at the start of the year? I mean many would’ve had Souths and Manly in their predicted top 8s, and probably not us. Could look quite different with that lense.

Might be worth looking at it again against say, Brandy’s predicted 8 if we can find it. Or anyone else with a shred of objectivity (noting Brandy’s obvious affiliation with Penrith of course).

 

[Thatwasnthighref]

we can finish 3rd but only if we win both our games and the ogs lose both of theirs.they have the Panthers and Sharks though, so that’s not out of the question.

My son just told me he’s read somewhere the Panthers may have flagged top 4 now and are considering resting players this week to freshen them for the finals.

Anyone else heard similar?

Interesting decision if true but I can see how it might work…. freshen them this week, roll out for the Drags in rd27 to tune up for the finals, and if they’ve been struggling for motivation after winning 4 on the trot, the chance to be the first to win it from outside the top 4 could be the trigger they’ve been searching for.

 

[Penrose Warrior]

Oh was it? I hadn’t heard that one.

Might’ve been against predicted top 8 at the start of the year? I mean many would’ve had Souths and Manly in their predicted top 8s, and probably not us. Could look quite different with that lense.

Might be worth looking at it again against say, Brandy’s predicted 8 if we can find it. Or anyone else with a shred of objectivity (noting Brandy’s obvious affiliation with Penrith of course).

It was more about the travel than the teams played.

 

[Penrose Warrior]

My son just told me he’s read somewhere the Panthers may have flagged top 4 now and are considering resting players this week to freshen them for the finals.

Anyone else heard similar?

Interesting decision if true but I can see how it might work…. freshen them this week, roll out for the Drags in rd27 to tune up for the finals, and if they’ve been struggling for motivation after winning 4 on the trot, the chance to be the first to win it from outside the top 4 could be the trigger they’ve been searching for.

EDIT - your son has good mail and I am naive about how cunning Ivan Cleary is.

 

[Thatwasnthighref]

It was more about the travel than the teams played.

Ah ok.. now you’ve brought it up again I think I do remember that.

It’s a valid point but I kinda switched off though cos he’s whinging about something we face into every season. And when you add the extra overhead of international vs. domestic travel, it’s even more profound.

Still, regardless of the draw you still have to be good enough to take advantage of it. And no doubt Sticky’s built a dangerous team, wherever or whoever they play.

 

[Thatwasnthighref]

No chance the Panthers have flagged top 4. And even if they had, 5th and 6th is a thing. They don't want to go to Brisbane, they want to play out west.

I think your son should stop reading whatever he's reading and subscribe to Blair's posts before each round

I’ve since seen it mentioned on mainstream media reports. Dunno if everyone is picking up on the same rumour or if its being corroborated, but I guess we’ll find out soon enough.

 

[Penrose Warrior]

I’ve since seen it mentioned on mainstream media reports. Dunno if everyone is picking up on the same rumour or if its being corroborated, but I guess we’ll find out soon enough.

I had to edit, he is right.

 

[Thatwasnthighref]

If true, it makes their final round game a little more interesting doesn’t it.

Almost guaranteed “winning from outside the top 4” will become their new theme, so how the team responds to that will be fascinating.

I reckon they’ll come out hard and I don’t envy whoever gets them in week 1. Really hope it’s not us.