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Next TV deal discussion 2028 -

Wb1234

Immortal
Messages
48,847
Does free to air streaming fall in line with the legalities? I.e. if they ran two games a week free of charge through their own platform and six or seven charged?
Yeh maybe

basically nrl gets 1.2 million people watching every game across fta and fox

depending on how much you could charge them. Plus advertising and other sponsorship less production costs

don’t think it will happen though

game needs fta eyeballs doesn’t want to go fully behind a paywall for exposure

just throwing out numbers if nrl got 1 million subs at 30 a month it’s only 360 million in revenue which is under half what they want
 

marlins2.0

Juniors
Messages
344
Yeh maybe

basically nrl gets 1.2 million people watching every game across fta and fox

depending on how much you could charge them. Plus advertising and other sponsorship less production costs

don’t think it will happen though

game needs fta eyeballs doesn’t want to go fully behind a paywall for exposure

just throwing out numbers if nrl got 1 million subs at 30 a month it’s only 360 million in revenue which is under half what they want
I guess the downside with free to air streaming is it's tougher to catch casuals/channel flippers eh.
 

stratocaster

Juniors
Messages
169
Yeh maybe

basically nrl gets 1.2 million people watching every game across fta and fox
That's based on stand alones though on Thursday & Friday nights.

I ran an AI program that simulated a potential Friday night double header (6:30pm/8:15pm). Basically the goal was to maximise the average audiences for both games, whilst also maximising the total reach audience if it was listed as a 4 hour block like AFL does. I then fed it a bunch of TV ratings data based on recent ratings and previous ratings when the NRL had doubleheader previously

Now these rounds aren't set in any order, they're just what it thinks it could maximise Australian audiences as multi TV market match ups and/or rivalry games.

Round 1 Storm vs Eels / Roosters vs Rabbitohs 2.30M
Round 2
Broncos vs Panthers / Sea Eagles vs Eels 2.15M
Round 3
Storm vs Panthers / Warriors vs Roosters 2.20M
Round 4
Broncos vs Dolphins / Tigers vs Eels 1.95M
Round 5
Storm vs Broncos / Panthers vs Rabbitohs 2.40M
Round 6
Roosters vs Panthers / Cowboys vs Dolphins 2.20M
Round 7
Storm vs Eels / Broncos vs Roosters 2.45M
Round 8
Panthers vs Sea Eagles / Warriors vs Dolphins 2.10M
Round 9
Roosters vs Eels / Storm vs Sharks 2.35M
Round 10
Storm vs Rabbitohs / Perth Bears vs Broncos 2.50M (SEASON PEAK) - 4 markets
Round 11
Broncos vs Panthers / Eels vs Roosters 2.35M
Round 12
Storm vs Cowboys / Rabbitohs vs Panthers 2.30M
Round 13
Roosters vs Sea Eagles / Broncos vs Dolphins 2.15M
Round 14
Storm vs Eels / Warriors vs Panthers 2.25M
Round 15
Panthers vs Tigers / Roosters vs Broncos 2.20M
Round 16
Storm vs Eels / Broncos vs Warriors 2.50M (SEASON PEAK) - 4 markets
Round 17
Roosters vs Panthers / Cowboys vs Sharks 2.20M
Round 18
Rabbitohs vs Eels / Dolphins vs Broncos 2.05M
Round 19
Storm vs Sea Eagles / Warriors vs Tigers 2.00M
Round 20
Broncos vs Panthers / Roosters vs Sharks 2.30M
Round 21
Storm vs Cowboys / Eels vs Bulldogs 2.15M
Round 22
Roosters vs Rabbitohs / Panthers vs Broncos 2.45M
Round 23
Storm vs Panthers / Eels vs Sea Eagles 2.40M
Round 24
Roosters vs Eels / Broncos vs Tigers 2.25M
Round 25
Storm vs Broncos / Panthers vs Sharks 2.48M
Round 26
Roosters vs Panthers / Eels vs Dolphins 2.30M
Round 27
Storm vs Panthers / Broncos vs Rabbitohs 2.45M

National TV audience averages
  • Game 1: ~1.58M
  • Game 2: ~1.60M
By going back to back and get national follow through audiences, you increase your overall averages.

National TV reach:
  • Average: ~2.08M
  • Peak: 2.45M – 2.50M
  • Floor: ~1.90M
This model maxes out what it thinks teams like the Broncos and Storm can do.

15 appearance: Broncos, Panthers
14 appearance: Storm, Roosters, Eels,
6 appearances: Dolphins (derby games mostly), Warriors (home games for the early Friday game), Rabbitohs (in my opinion - underused)
5 appearances: Cowboys/Titans (derby games mostly), Sea Eagles
2 appearances: Bulldogs (underused)
1 appearance: Perth (underused)

You can definitely modify this by adding more Rabbitohs and Bulldogs games.

I also look at that Round 10 combination of markets and there's 12 possible permutations of those teams alone. Even more if you swap the Rabbitohs for the Eels, Roosters or Bulldogs) - around 48 permutations. I'd have the PERTH + MELBOURNE + BRISBANE + BIG SYDNEY TEAM match up at least 4-5 times a season to target 4 metro markets.

The point is - this is a thing that doesn't exist now - but will generate maximum TV ratings and broadcast deal revenue.

And it costs $0 extra dollars to implement. If I can do this with my model, the NRL can easily do it with their new AI draw model.
 

Wb1234

Immortal
Messages
48,847
Just throwing out some numbers

pay tv 1.5 million subs at 40 a month average is 720 million pa

Fta anywhere from 150 to 175 million.

nz 30 to 50 million

png 20 to 30 million

shows what potentially the deal could look like

png wouldn’t be right away

I think 1.5 million pay tv subs is already happening if not close

and league game are currently subsidising the overs Fox paid for afl

if they lose the league kayo will go up big time (if they keep it it’s going up anyway to cover the new tv deal)
 

flamin

Juniors
Messages
2,050

NRL kicks off pitch for record broadcast deal – with a twist​

Zoe Samios Apr 16, 2026 – 11.52am

The NRL has kicked off its blockbuster broadcast rights auction, demanding media networks submit bids listing how much each game is worth in a way that has fuelled speculation it could carve up marquee games between multiple broadcasters or streaming services.

The code sent tender documents to broadcasters on Wednesday, starting what is expected to be a hotly contested, multi-billion dollar sales process for one of Australia’s most valuable sporting properties.

The tender, which governs the seasons beyond 2027, asks bidders to list the Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday and Monday games they’re interested in, and the rights they’d like to bid for – such as free-to-air rights, free streaming rights or paid streaming rights, for example.

One source with knowledge of the tender documents, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the structure could set the NRL up to sell one night’s games to Amazon Prime Video, for example, and another to Netflix. (Netflix has said it does not intend to bid for the NRL rights). It could also pave the way for State of Origin to go to Network Seven while Sunday games could go to the Nine Network.

Parties likely to have received the tender documents include Nine Entertainment, Kayo Sports’ owner Foxtel (now owned by global sports streaming platform Dazn), Network Ten’s parent company Paramount, Amazon Prime Video and Southern Cross Media, which merged with Seven West Media (owner of Network Seven) earlier this year.

The high-stakes auction is a test for Australian Rugby League Commission chairman Peter V’landys, who has previously said he wanted more than $4 billion over five years. That would make the NRL’s deal bigger than the AFL’s six-year $4.5 billion deal.

One way to achieve this is to split the rights across multiple television networks and streaming services, but there is a chance this might fragment the audience. In an interview last October, V’landys said he did not want fans to have to pay more to watch games.

“Customers need to be able to afford the NRL,” he told The Australian Financial Review. “We are looking at making money from extra markets – New Zealand, England, the United States and Papua New Guinea. We don’t want our fans in Australia paying more to watch rugby league.”

The unorthodox structure of the NRL’s tender could be deliberate to give the impression it is open to splitting the rights across broadcasters and streamers. The NRL declined to comment.

The market is very different from 2023 when the AFL secured its deal, with looming changes by the Albanese government to sports gambling advertising and a wider free-to-air advertising pullback that would make a portion of the rights harder to monetise. That said, the NRL’s marquee games have drawn record audiences – the 2025 Grand Final was the most-watched in the code’s history.

V’landys and NRL chief executive Andrew Abdo believe they can secure a deal bigger than the AFL because of the introduction of two new teams – the Perth Bears and the PNG Chiefs – and the popularity of its annual Las Vegas season launch.

“There are not many other sports rights in Australia in terms of this magnitude up [for negotiation] over this window,” Abdo previously said.

Nine Entertainment chief executive Matt Stanton and Southern Cross Media executive chairman Heith Mackay-Cruise have flagged interest in the NRL rights, but reiterated they needed to be fiscally responsible about any decision.

In the past two years, Nine has renewed the rights for rugby union and tennis, bought the rights to the English Premier League from Optus and recently secured a five-year deal with Netball Australia. It is also the broadcaster of the Olympic and Paralympic Games. Nine owns the Nine Network and is the publisher of The Australian Financial Review.

Foxtel and Nine, who have a long history of working together on broadcast deals across a range of sports, have been warned off working together by V’landys.


 
Messages
1,926
"V’landys and NRL chief executive Andrew Abdo believe they can secure a deal bigger than the AFL because of the introduction of two new teams – the Perth Bears and the PNG Chiefs – and the popularity of its annual Las Vegas season launch"
Love the way the bitch doesn`t mention highest rating winter sport by a country mile, having to write that would just be too painful for that fumblefan-kook.
 

Barney Stubble

Juniors
Messages
784

NRL kicks off pitch for record broadcast deal – with a twist​

Zoe Samios Apr 16, 2026 – 11.52am

The NRL has kicked off its blockbuster broadcast rights auction, demanding media networks submit bids listing how much each game is worth in a way that has fuelled speculation it could carve up marquee games between multiple broadcasters or streaming services.

The code sent tender documents to broadcasters on Wednesday, starting what is expected to be a hotly contested, multi-billion dollar sales process for one of Australia’s most valuable sporting properties.

The tender, which governs the seasons beyond 2027, asks bidders to list the Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday and Monday games they’re interested in, and the rights they’d like to bid for – such as free-to-air rights, free streaming rights or paid streaming rights, for example.

One source with knowledge of the tender documents, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the structure could set the NRL up to sell one night’s games to Amazon Prime Video, for example, and another to Netflix. (Netflix has said it does not intend to bid for the NRL rights). It could also pave the way for State of Origin to go to Network Seven while Sunday games could go to the Nine Network.

Parties likely to have received the tender documents include Nine Entertainment, Kayo Sports’ owner Foxtel (now owned by global sports streaming platform Dazn), Network Ten’s parent company Paramount, Amazon Prime Video and Southern Cross Media, which merged with Seven West Media (owner of Network Seven) earlier this year.

The high-stakes auction is a test for Australian Rugby League Commission chairman Peter V’landys, who has previously said he wanted more than $4 billion over five years. That would make the NRL’s deal bigger than the AFL’s six-year $4.5 billion deal.

One way to achieve this is to split the rights across multiple television networks and streaming services, but there is a chance this might fragment the audience. In an interview last October, V’landys said he did not want fans to have to pay more to watch games.

“Customers need to be able to afford the NRL,” he told The Australian Financial Review. “We are looking at making money from extra markets – New Zealand, England, the United States and Papua New Guinea. We don’t want our fans in Australia paying more to watch rugby league.”

The unorthodox structure of the NRL’s tender could be deliberate to give the impression it is open to splitting the rights across broadcasters and streamers. The NRL declined to comment.

The market is very different from 2023 when the AFL secured its deal, with looming changes by the Albanese government to sports gambling advertising and a wider free-to-air advertising pullback that would make a portion of the rights harder to monetise. That said, the NRL’s marquee games have drawn record audiences – the 2025 Grand Final was the most-watched in the code’s history.

V’landys and NRL chief executive Andrew Abdo believe they can secure a deal bigger than the AFL because of the introduction of two new teams – the Perth Bears and the PNG Chiefs – and the popularity of its annual Las Vegas season launch.

“There are not many other sports rights in Australia in terms of this magnitude up [for negotiation] over this window,” Abdo previously said.

Nine Entertainment chief executive Matt Stanton and Southern Cross Media executive chairman Heith Mackay-Cruise have flagged interest in the NRL rights, but reiterated they needed to be fiscally responsible about any decision.

In the past two years, Nine has renewed the rights for rugby union and tennis, bought the rights to the English Premier League from Optus and recently secured a five-year deal with Netball Australia. It is also the broadcaster of the Olympic and Paralympic Games. Nine owns the Nine Network and is the publisher of The Australian Financial Review.

Foxtel and Nine, who have a long history of working together on broadcast deals across a range of sports, have been warned off working together by V’landys.


Doubt Amazon or Netflix are genuine players or the NRL wants to put one game a week with either of them , & this has essentially been debunked by PVL, we're not the US .. our sport is not the NFL with its coast to coast dominance.
The rights might be broken up on FTA , but not for streaming.
 

Wb1234

Immortal
Messages
48,847

NRL kicks off pitch for record broadcast deal – with a twist​

Zoe Samios Apr 16, 2026 – 11.52am

The NRL has kicked off its blockbuster broadcast rights auction, demanding media networks submit bids listing how much each game is worth in a way that has fuelled speculation it could carve up marquee games between multiple broadcasters or streaming services.

The code sent tender documents to broadcasters on Wednesday, starting what is expected to be a hotly contested, multi-billion dollar sales process for one of Australia’s most valuable sporting properties.

The tender, which governs the seasons beyond 2027, asks bidders to list the Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday and Monday games they’re interested in, and the rights they’d like to bid for – such as free-to-air rights, free streaming rights or paid streaming rights, for example.

One source with knowledge of the tender documents, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the structure could set the NRL up to sell one night’s games to Amazon Prime Video, for example, and another to Netflix. (Netflix has said it does not intend to bid for the NRL rights). It could also pave the way for State of Origin to go to Network Seven while Sunday games could go to the Nine Network.

Parties likely to have received the tender documents include Nine Entertainment, Kayo Sports’ owner Foxtel (now owned by global sports streaming platform Dazn), Network Ten’s parent company Paramount, Amazon Prime Video and Southern Cross Media, which merged with Seven West Media (owner of Network Seven) earlier this year.

The high-stakes auction is a test for Australian Rugby League Commission chairman Peter V’landys, who has previously said he wanted more than $4 billion over five years. That would make the NRL’s deal bigger than the AFL’s six-year $4.5 billion deal.

One way to achieve this is to split the rights across multiple television networks and streaming services, but there is a chance this might fragment the audience. In an interview last October, V’landys said he did not want fans to have to pay more to watch games.

“Customers need to be able to afford the NRL,” he told The Australian Financial Review. “We are looking at making money from extra markets – New Zealand, England, the United States and Papua New Guinea. We don’t want our fans in Australia paying more to watch rugby league.”

The unorthodox structure of the NRL’s tender could be deliberate to give the impression it is open to splitting the rights across broadcasters and streamers. The NRL declined to comment.

The market is very different from 2023 when the AFL secured its deal, with looming changes by the Albanese government to sports gambling advertising and a wider free-to-air advertising pullback that would make a portion of the rights harder to monetise. That said, the NRL’s marquee games have drawn record audiences – the 2025 Grand Final was the most-watched in the code’s history.

V’landys and NRL chief executive Andrew Abdo believe they can secure a deal bigger than the AFL because of the introduction of two new teams – the Perth Bears and the PNG Chiefs – and the popularity of its annual Las Vegas season launch.

“There are not many other sports rights in Australia in terms of this magnitude up [for negotiation] over this window,” Abdo previously said.

Nine Entertainment chief executive Matt Stanton and Southern Cross Media executive chairman Heith Mackay-Cruise have flagged interest in the NRL rights, but reiterated they needed to be fiscally responsible about any decision.

In the past two years, Nine has renewed the rights for rugby union and tennis, bought the rights to the English Premier League from Optus and recently secured a five-year deal with Netball Australia. It is also the broadcaster of the Olympic and Paralympic Games. Nine owns the Nine Network and is the publisher of The Australian Financial Review.

Foxtel and Nine, who have a long history of working together on broadcast deals across a range of sports, have been warned off working together by V’landys.


Afr is owned by nein

and Zoe seems to be a fumbler she’s been really negative about the nrl tv deal before

this is actually very positive from her pov though still not what a good league journo would come up with
 

storm1999

Juniors
Messages
320
This is not the best economic climate for a record deal to be acheieved. A recession is on the horizon and consumer discretionary spending is at record lows. If PVL thinks fans will be happy to fork out $100 per month for multiple streaming services just to see every game he might be in for a rude shock.
 

stratocaster

Juniors
Messages
169
This is the best way for the NRL to do it. The networks have already hid behind obscure valuations of individual components.

So for example, instead of 9 and Foxtel just going 'here $X for everything', both of them have to assign specific dollar values to each element. So the existing 9/Foxtel agreement would have been something like:

27 Thursday Night Football matches = $A
27 Friday Night Football matches = $B
27 Sunday Football matches =$C
All finals exclusive = $D
3 State of Origin matches = $E
3 exclusive streaming games on Saturday = $F
1 exclusive streaming game on Sunday = $G
1 exclusive streaming game at 6pm Sunday = $H
3 simulcast games = $I
Premium extra amount if the FTA rights don't get split $J
Premium extra amount if the streaming rights don't get split $K

Monday Night Football might be worth $L

So now they'll be able to see for each component what they're worth, which they don't normally get to do.

If 7 is best for Monday $E & Origin $L and 9 is best for Thursdays $A & Sunday $C, and 10 is best for Friday $B, and then 1 streamer gets exclusive Saturdays and Sunday plus simulcasts $F $G $H $I -- that can potential max be more valuable than just a lump sum bid for all rights 9, 10 or 9/Foxtel.

It creates competitive tension for every single element, not just the package as a whole.
 

stratocaster

Juniors
Messages
169
This is not the best economic climate for a record deal to be acheieved. A recession is on the horizon and consumer discretionary spending is at record lows. If PVL thinks fans will be happy to fork out $100 per month for multiple streaming services just to see every game he might be in for a rude shock.
My guess we'll end up with only 1 streamer for 99% of games - Stan, Foxtel/Kayo or Paramount.

There's an outside chance Netflix, Paramount or Netflix will throw their hat into the ring for an event game (e.g. an exclusive Anzac Day match, exclusive Easter match) as a one-off content audience attractor. Similar to how Netflix broadcasts Christmas NFL.
 

Wb1234

Immortal
Messages
48,847
This is not the best economic climate for a record deal to be acheieved. A recession is on the horizon and consumer discretionary spending is at record lows. If PVL thinks fans will be happy to fork out $100 per month for multiple streaming services just to see every game he might be in for a rude shock.
It will be one streamer / pay tv network and maybe two fta networks (ten and seven)

Still think nine and fox keep it

Monday night footy returning is awesome
 

BuffaloRules

Coach
Messages
18,214
This is not the best economic climate for a record deal to be acheieved. A recession is on the horizon and consumer discretionary spending is at record lows. If PVL thinks fans will be happy to fork out $100 per month for multiple streaming services just to see every game he might be in for a rude shock.

We’ll have to wait and see what happens … they are on massive unders now .. a big jump should be on the cards
 

Cactus

Juniors
Messages
986
If PVL thinks fans will be happy to fork out $100 per month for multiple streaming services just to see every game he might be in for a rude shock.
He must have said it a thousand times, in almost every news story on the topic of the new broadcast deal, that it is his expectation that RL fans shouldnt be paying more or much more to watch RL once the new deal kicks in.
 
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