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Recent content by Poupou Escobar

  1. Poupou Escobar

    Eels in the media

    I never assume it happens for no reason.
  2. Poupou Escobar

    Rumours and Stuff

    No because when comparing teams a lot of the outliers are averaged out. When comparing individuals you could very well be comparing two outliers. It all comes out in the wash, but 'the wash' here refers to large samples. A team is a bigger sample than a single player. I'm sure you would agree...
  3. Poupou Escobar

    Rumours and Stuff

    I disagree. McCullough was CamSmith-lite for a decade. His win rate proves that. A reliable and experienced first grader.
  4. Poupou Escobar

    Eels in the media

    I assume when a player is out of form he either has off field issues or he is carrying injury.
  5. Poupou Escobar

    Non-eels footy stuff

    Me neither.
  6. Poupou Escobar

    Rumours and Stuff

    It depends on the players and what you're comparing them in. Like I said, it's more complicated than comparing teams since players have different purposes, whereas teams have the sole purpose of winning games. In this way, turning a comparison of two teams into a comparison of two individual...
  7. Poupou Escobar

    Rumours and Stuff

    A more experienced option at least. Do you think experience has any value?
  8. Poupou Escobar

    Rumours and Stuff

    Looking at our results over the whole year plus the next couple tells you more about the relative strength of the two teams, not just looking at one game. The whole reason people think of 2009 as a fairy tale is because we were average but made it into a grand final. You don't see that every...
  9. Poupou Escobar

    Rumours and Stuff

    Sometimes. And when you can't you incorporate other statistics into the analysis. I would describe it as an iterative process. Like I said, once you get to the point where your model is predictive you've more or less nailed the analysis. It's about isolating signal from noise. The thing is that...
  10. Poupou Escobar

    Rumours and Stuff

    No I think you can definitely compare players on a single statistic. If you don't believe me go and look at the stats page on NRL.com. It ranks players in numerical order for each statistic.
  11. Poupou Escobar

    Eels in the media

    Coaches can probably respect the professionalism of some of the players but not all of them. What does he do when a third (or whatever) turn up after Christmas in very poor shape and group training is pushed to the right while everyone waits for these laggards to catch up? Issuing fines won't...
  12. Poupou Escobar

    Rumours and Stuff

    Well that's why nobody saw them coming. Although you'll find they had plenty of finals + Origin experience. Like us now they had been making the finals for years, steadily building.
  13. Poupou Escobar

    Rumours and Stuff

    No but I certainly wouldn't need to use all of them. Some solid heuristics: Kick metres Forced drop outs TAs LBAs Win percentage Team points Plus probably tackle effectiveness to measure how much of a liability he is in defence. This ignores some data in favour of others, but it would paint a...
  14. Poupou Escobar

    Rumours and Stuff

    No but you seem to think that is my argument. I've made clear that I would only say the 2002 team had more big game experience (although they did lose some very experienced players after 2001). Why did they get worse results than the 2001 team? We all no doubt have our theories, but we couldn't...

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