Historical stats - Premiers

[madunit]

Just a boring tidbit for everyone.

No team has ever become Premiers after losing their last 3 regular season games.

St.George in 1949 went close when they drew 1 and lost 2 before becoming Premiers.

Of the 108 premiers since 1908:

65 of them won all 3 of their last 3 regular season games (60.19%)
33 of them won 2 of their last 3 (30.56%)
9 of them won 1 of their last 3 (8.33%)
1 of them had 0 wins and a draw in their last 3 (0.93%)

This data then suggests:
Roosters and Bulldogs are a 60.19% chance of winning the GF
Cowboys, Storm, Sharks and Dragons are 30.56% chance
Brisbane are an 8.33% chance
Souths are 0% chance

 

[Pierced Soul]

did you come up with this yourself unit?

i think i heard a stat on 360 last night where they said if a hasler coached team wins their first finals game they always make the gf or something like that

 

[TheDalek079]

i heard a stat that a Robbo coached NRL team will always win the minor premiership

 

[Danish]

Souths are 0% chance

Its just good science, people

 

[madunit]

did you come up with this yourself unit?

i think i heard a stat on 360 last night where they said if a hasler coached team wins their first finals game they always make the gf or something like that

yeah, I researched it yesterday

 

[Vic Mackey]

So the dragons are 4 times more likely to win the comp than Brisbane?

 

[madunit]

almost

 

[blaza88z]

Just a boring tidbit for everyone.

No team has ever become Premiers after losing their last 3 regular season games.

St.George in 1949 went close when they drew 1 and lost 2 before becoming Premiers.

Of the 108 premiers since 1908:

65 of them won all 3 of their last 3 regular season games (60.19%)
33 of them won 2 of their last 3 (30.56%)
9 of them won 1 of their last 3 (8.33%)
1 of them had 0 wins and a draw in their last 3 (0.93%)

This data then suggests:
Roosters and Bulldogs are a 60.19% chance of winning the GF
Cowboys, Storm, Sharks and Dragons are 30.56% chance
Brisbane are an 8.33% chance
Souths are 0% chance

Bunniesman likes those odds

 

[The Mad Hatter]

This data then suggests:
Roosters and Bulldogs are a 60.19% chance of winning the GF
Cowboys, Storm, Sharks and Dragons are 30.56% chance
Brisbane are an 8.33% chance
Souths are 0% chance

So...statistically, Souths have no chance.

But Souths still have a mathematical chance.

Good enough for me.

:lol:

 

[madunit]

This below info is only from Finals series involving at least 8 sides
Week 1 success
1st - 78.95%
2nd - 57.89%
3rd - 42.11%
4th - 57.89%
5th - 47.37%
6th - 52.63%
7th - 47.37%
8th - 10.53%

Which would mean this week
Roosters will beat Melbourne
Brisbane will beat Cowboys
Bulldogs will beat Dragons
Sharks will beat Souths

 

[The Mad Hatter]

For Souths, only twice after winning a premiership have they not gone on to go back to back:

1908, 1909,
1914
1918
1925, 1926, 1927, 1928, 1929,
1931, 1932,
1950, 1951,
1953, 1954, 1955,
1967, 1968,
1970, 1971,
2014

For Bulldogs:

Lost 1974
Won 1984, 1985
Lost 1994, Won 1995
Won 2004
Lost 2014

So if I can massage the figures they should win it in 2024 and they should win it in 2015.

Brisbane have never lost a Grand Final; Cronulla have never won a Grand Final.

Working on Roosters now.

 

[doggzfan4lyf]

Also,

A 7th placed side has never made a Grand Final.

Didn't the Dogs make the GF from 7th last year?

 

[yobbo84]

Also,

A 7th placed side has never made a Grand Final.

Except for, you know, last year.

 

[some11]

madunit you said you were part of the team behind Rugby League Project?

If so keep up the good work, I refer to it a few times a week at least during the season and you could put ads on the site for all I care, just tell people to turn off ad-block.

 

[The Mad Hatter]

All I know for certain, is that on Grand Final Day, we'll be hearing Puff Daddy's cover of Led Zep's Kashmir blasting out of the PA.

 

[grouch]

i think i heard a stat on 360 last night where they said if a hasler coached team wins their first finals game they always make the gf or something like that

Since 2010 he's only lost the first finals game to teams coached by Wayne Bennett. If he avoids Bennett in week 1 he reaches the GF

 

[Different kind of Rabbit]

Jeeze unit, I hope you didn't spend too long coming up with that stat on Souths?

The fact that we've been in terrible form and playing shit football for the best part of a month tells me that we are 0% chance.

No need to go through the record books looking for any more proof.

 

[madunit]

Didn't the Dogs make the GF from 7th last year?

ahh right you are. I just realised I stopped at 2013.

I stand corrected.

 

[Mogsheen Jadwat]

all i know for certain, is that on grand final day, we'll be hearing puff daddy's cover of led zep's kashmir blasting out of the pa.

come with me

 

[madunit]

Jeeze unit, I hope you didn't spend too long coming up with that stat on Souths?

The fact that we've been in terrible form and playing shit football for the best part of a month tells me that we are 0% chance.

No need to go through the record books looking for any more proof.

spent about 10 mins while sitting on a train slowly dying.