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The Las Vegas Thread

marlins2.0

Juniors
Messages
336

The confusion between Union and League shows no signs of abating...

https://www.afr.com/world/north-america/rugby-what-charts-show-nrl-s-vegas-bet-is-struggling-20260226-p5o5kc



Rugby union is rising in the US. That’s bad news for the NRL​

Hosting season openers in Las Vegas was supposed to help the NRL grab a slice of the world’s biggest sports fan and betting market. It has not been so simple.

Jessica Gardner

Jessica GardnerUnited States correspondent
Feb 27, 2026 – 8.50am
Save
Share



Washington | Sports betting analyst Brett Smiley says the NRL has a steep hill to climb before cracking the United States, but it should take heart from the sports’ growth at the college and high school level.
There is just one problem. He is confusing rugby league with rugby union.


“Ah,” he says when alerted to the mix-up. “I appreciate your explanation there, because I’m not that well-versed on rugby, but I understood that there’s a couple of different types.”

This weekend, the NRL will open its season with a costly jaunt to Las Vegas, Nevada, for the third year in a row. Canterbury meets St George Illawarra and North Queensland takes on Newcastle on Sunday (AEDT) as part of a five-year deal with the Nevada Tourism Commission.

The Vegas play was the brainchild of Australian Rugby League Commission chairman Peter V’landys, who reckoned it would allow the NRL to crack the world’s biggest fan market and take a slice of soaring wagering volumes. But it has not been that simple.

“It’s certainly much harder than I expected it to be,” V’landys told The Australian this week.
Interviews with sports industry observers suggest three key hurdles, and the first one might sting.

Rugby union is certainly a niche proposition in the US, but it already has greater recognition than league. Major League Rugby is in its ninth season, and the USA Eagles will host the men’s World Cup in 2031 (and the women’s two years later). In the women’s game, Ilona Maher has become a breakout star with millions of social media followers, lucrative sponsorships and a muscular Barbie doll in her image.
Could the NRL’s first hurdle in the US be that it is confused with union? David Hampian, managing director of marketing consultancy Field Vision, asks for a quick primer on the difference before answering that question.
“Okay, okay, that is the version my father-in-law watches,” he says of the union games watched by the Fijian-heritage fan. “I think that your average American consumer does not know the difference right now.”

Gambling the key​

What Hampian and Smiley do have a handle on is the betting landscape. A 2018 Supreme Court decision overturned a law that had banned sports betting outside Nevada. Seven years later, in 2025, punters gambled more than $US165 billion ($233 billion) on sports, so there is clearly a big opportunity for the NRL.
The thing is, while many other sports share the same view, they have struggled to compete against the big three. Last year, combined bets on American football, basketball and baseball accounted for 81 per cent of the $US8 billion bet on sports in Nevada (which still leads the industry in betting intensity per resident, but has lost the overall volume crown to the state of New York, whose punters dropped $US26.3 billion).

“Those leagues have just got such a dominance over the sports culture,” says Smiley, the editorial director for sportsbook publication InGame.
“Niche” sports battle it out for the final fifth of the pie, he says.

Hampian, who helped launch Florida’s first online sportsbook Hard Rock Bet and led online streaming platform Twitch into sports, says the NRL is also grappling with an “enormous broadcast gap”.

TV viewers rising​

Last year’s NRL games in Vegas pulled in about 371,000 US viewers on Fox, a 600 per cent jump on 2024, but still below every established US league.
“The NRL’s peak number is roughly on par with a mid-tier UFL spring football broadcast,” Hampian says, referring to a version of American football designed to keep fans watching during the off-season.

Holding games in the February window, between the Super Bowl and college basketball’s March Madness, is helpful, but the NRL will continue to struggle to gain a foothold while it is offering a one-off spectacle, he says.

The English Premier League’s efforts are instructive, Hampian says. The EPL, which, of course, has games playing in a more forgiving time zone than the NRL, has followed the lead of the National Basketball Association and other leagues to broadcast regular live “moments” each week. Think, Friday night footy, as the NRL does so well at home. “They’re trying to make sure they are planting a seed in every major streaming platform where sports fans consume content,” he says of the EPL.
The league has also worked with online content creators to build up the community of fans who engage in “second-screen” opportunities while watching, including fantasy football, messaging forums and gambling, Hampian says.

Still, despite all of this investment, average viewing figures for EPL matches on its US broadcast partner NBC fell 7 per cent to 510,000 for the 2024-25 season.
“The challenge for the rugby league,” Hampian says, “is, how do you make that one moment in time actually a year-round content slate.”

That is for V’landys to mull in Vegas this weekend.

Lol. The only rugby brand that will matter in the US, will be NRL. Fans will attend the All Blacks games when they turn up, sure. But when they Google and YouTube search, it will be NRL. It won't be 6 Nations, it won't be Top14, it won't be a URC, it won't be Super Rugby.

N.
R.
L.

Who gives a f**k if they know the differences between the codes, as long as they're watching, and coming back.
 

Dogs Of War

Coach
Messages
13,822

The confusion between Union and League shows no signs of abating...

https://www.afr.com/world/north-america/rugby-what-charts-show-nrl-s-vegas-bet-is-struggling-20260226-p5o5kc



Rugby union is rising in the US. That’s bad news for the NRL​

Hosting season openers in Las Vegas was supposed to help the NRL grab a slice of the world’s biggest sports fan and betting market. It has not been so simple.

Jessica Gardner

Jessica GardnerUnited States correspondent
Feb 27, 2026 – 8.50am
Save
Share



Washington | Sports betting analyst Brett Smiley says the NRL has a steep hill to climb before cracking the United States, but it should take heart from the sports’ growth at the college and high school level.
There is just one problem. He is confusing rugby league with rugby union.


“Ah,” he says when alerted to the mix-up. “I appreciate your explanation there, because I’m not that well-versed on rugby, but I understood that there’s a couple of different types.”

This weekend, the NRL will open its season with a costly jaunt to Las Vegas, Nevada, for the third year in a row. Canterbury meets St George Illawarra and North Queensland takes on Newcastle on Sunday (AEDT) as part of a five-year deal with the Nevada Tourism Commission.

The Vegas play was the brainchild of Australian Rugby League Commission chairman Peter V’landys, who reckoned it would allow the NRL to crack the world’s biggest fan market and take a slice of soaring wagering volumes. But it has not been that simple.

“It’s certainly much harder than I expected it to be,” V’landys told The Australian this week.
Interviews with sports industry observers suggest three key hurdles, and the first one might sting.

Rugby union is certainly a niche proposition in the US, but it already has greater recognition than league. Major League Rugby is in its ninth season, and the USA Eagles will host the men’s World Cup in 2031 (and the women’s two years later). In the women’s game, Ilona Maher has become a breakout star with millions of social media followers, lucrative sponsorships and a muscular Barbie doll in her image.
Could the NRL’s first hurdle in the US be that it is confused with union? David Hampian, managing director of marketing consultancy Field Vision, asks for a quick primer on the difference before answering that question.
“Okay, okay, that is the version my father-in-law watches,” he says of the union games watched by the Fijian-heritage fan. “I think that your average American consumer does not know the difference right now.”

Gambling the key​

What Hampian and Smiley do have a handle on is the betting landscape. A 2018 Supreme Court decision overturned a law that had banned sports betting outside Nevada. Seven years later, in 2025, punters gambled more than $US165 billion ($233 billion) on sports, so there is clearly a big opportunity for the NRL.
The thing is, while many other sports share the same view, they have struggled to compete against the big three. Last year, combined bets on American football, basketball and baseball accounted for 81 per cent of the $US8 billion bet on sports in Nevada (which still leads the industry in betting intensity per resident, but has lost the overall volume crown to the state of New York, whose punters dropped $US26.3 billion).

“Those leagues have just got such a dominance over the sports culture,” says Smiley, the editorial director for sportsbook publication InGame.
“Niche” sports battle it out for the final fifth of the pie, he says.

Hampian, who helped launch Florida’s first online sportsbook Hard Rock Bet and led online streaming platform Twitch into sports, says the NRL is also grappling with an “enormous broadcast gap”.

TV viewers rising​

Last year’s NRL games in Vegas pulled in about 371,000 US viewers on Fox, a 600 per cent jump on 2024, but still below every established US league.
“The NRL’s peak number is roughly on par with a mid-tier UFL spring football broadcast,” Hampian says, referring to a version of American football designed to keep fans watching during the off-season.

Holding games in the February window, between the Super Bowl and college basketball’s March Madness, is helpful, but the NRL will continue to struggle to gain a foothold while it is offering a one-off spectacle, he says.

The English Premier League’s efforts are instructive, Hampian says. The EPL, which, of course, has games playing in a more forgiving time zone than the NRL, has followed the lead of the National Basketball Association and other leagues to broadcast regular live “moments” each week. Think, Friday night footy, as the NRL does so well at home. “They’re trying to make sure they are planting a seed in every major streaming platform where sports fans consume content,” he says of the EPL.
The league has also worked with online content creators to build up the community of fans who engage in “second-screen” opportunities while watching, including fantasy football, messaging forums and gambling, Hampian says.

Still, despite all of this investment, average viewing figures for EPL matches on its US broadcast partner NBC fell 7 per cent to 510,000 for the 2024-25 season.
“The challenge for the rugby league,” Hampian says, “is, how do you make that one moment in time actually a year-round content slate.”

That is for V’landys to mull in Vegas this weekend.

Getting a highlights package each week into as many markets as possible is a good idea. Bit similar to the old Don Lane NFL highlights he used to do when he was on the ABC. Quick 3-4 min highlights of some games, with one or two great games with extended highlights with a good host to describe what is happening and provide a bit of life to proceedings.
 

Gobsmacked

First Grade
Messages
5,917
A quick AI overview of projected revenue of ticket sales assuming 40k.
Over 10 million AUD

For Rugby League Las Vegas 2026 at Allegiant Stadium on February 28, 2026:
Very cheap seats: ~US $37 – $49 (mezzanine/end-zone type) �
StubHub +1
Mid-range seats: ~US $100 – $200 �
gametime.co
High-end resale / premium seats: resale markets don’t list extremely high prices for regular seating — most go under ~US $300 in the data we found �
gametime.co
Corporate / VIP suites: ~$1,545 – $3,476 USD per person when dividing suite prices by guests (corporate suite packages from ~$27,810 – $41,715 total for 18-27 guests) �
Dynamic Sports Marketing
Let’s structure a simplified model with these categories:
Seat Type
% of Crowd
Price per Ticket (USD)
Cheap general admission
50%
$45
Mid-range regular seating
45%
$150
Premium/VIP including suites
5%
$2,000
(The premium category here is a rough proxy for corporate and luxury seats — the very high end.)
📊 Revenue Calculation (in USD)
If the stadium hosts 40,000 people:
Cheap seats (50%) → 20,000 × $45 = $900,000
Mid seats (45%) → 18,000 × $150 = $2,700,000
Premium (5%) → 2,000 × $2,000 = $4,000,000
Total ticket revenue (approx):
→ $7,600,000 USD
 

Dogs Of War

Coach
Messages
13,822
Same reason as the Test was I assume: the prestige and history of “Wembley” will get eyeballs

We aren't filling it though. Not at that time of year. Maybe if you threw the WCC into the mix on the same day. but then you are limited potential fans of the Super League clubs reducing it to one. And the WCC is an event in itself.
 
Messages
1,926
Ticketmaster showing almost no availability Level 3, so either they have just stopped selling there or its actually sold out.
Bottom 2 tiers actually hold almost 40k so 2/3 of capacity. Previous years i've looked at and level 3 was very sparce, yet the crowds were 40k+.
Might we hit 50k?
Very hard to imagine they`d stop selling, with all the League hype around Vegas, that 7 News clip had a Yank saying he`d seen nothing like it, it`d be the perfect time to pick up anyone in Vegas who became curious about the hype and wanted a relatively cheap opportunity to experience Allegiant.
So it might be sold out.
 

nko11

Juniors
Messages
935
Very hard to imagine they`d stop selling, with all the League hype around Vegas, that 7 News clip had a Yank saying he`d seen nothing like it, it`d be the perfect time to pick up anyone in Vegas who became curious about the hype and wanted a relatively cheap opportunity to experience Allegiant.
So it might be sold out.
I haven't been keeping as close a track on it this year. But my guess would be trying to funnel sales into the bottom tier to fill it up. I think they managed to sell a decent amount in level 3 - especially compared to year 1. Hull KR got through a large portion of their allocated level 3 area - happened pretty close to when tickets went on sale. I would go camera arc side of level 3 will be 70% full, non camera arc side - 30%.
 

i0Nic

Juniors
Messages
1,432
Ticketmaster showing almost no availability Level 3, so either they have just stopped selling there or its actually sold out.
Bottom 2 tiers actually hold almost 40k so 2/3 of capacity. Previous years i've looked at and level 3 was very sparce, yet the crowds were 40k+.
Might we hit 50k?
No chance of 50k, probably more likely trying to push sales into the bottom tiers.
 

Gobsmacked

First Grade
Messages
5,917
No chance of 50k, probably more likely trying to push sales into the bottom tiers.
No chance? I agree that they're pushing to fill those bottom tiers but my AI estimates the top tier only holding 12 to 14k..
Without selling a single seat in the top tier is in the realm of 50k and we still have a full 2 days to go.

You could easily open the top tier to $20 tickets in the last 24 hours to locals and walk ups,
but what I believe is happening is they're maximizing revenue with the aim of steady increases in crowd year over year , so just a little more than last year, so that next year can beat that and year 5 beats that, making it a trending and marketable.. it's bigger every year!

Last year was 45k, I'll predict this year 48 or 49k..
Headline, almost 50k ! Record year, record profit, gets bigger every year!

I also wonder if the stadium rent is significantly reduced without opening the top tier?
 

Big Moose

Juniors
Messages
59
So the games are being broadcast on FS2 in America, gone from being broadcast on the Fox FTA channel last year. I guess Fox have no interest in catering the Vlandys anymore
Differen’t schedule last year. The Wigan game was early then the Warriors v Raiders went on around 11am Brisbane time which was prime time into the east coast USA. Ladies game followed then the Panthers
 

i0Nic

Juniors
Messages
1,432
No chance? I agree that they're pushing to fill those bottom tiers but my AI estimates the top tier only holding 12 to 14k..
Without selling a single seat in the top tier is in the realm of 50k and we still have a full 2 days to go.

You could easily open the top tier to $20 tickets in the last 24 hours to locals and walk ups,
but what I believe is happening is they're maximizing revenue with the aim of steady increases in crowd year over year , so just a little more than last year, so that next year can beat that and year 5 beats that, making it a trending and marketable.. it's bigger every year!

Last year was 45k, I'll predict this year 48 or 49k..
Headline, almost 50k ! Record year, record profit, gets bigger every year!

I also wonder if the stadium rent is significantly reduced without opening the top tier?
that would be great! I’ve thought the same why don’t they just open up those top sections with $20 tickets but it makes sense if they’re trying to keep it growing year after year.
 
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