It is the 30th time these two sides have met in first grade competition this weekend and the milestone game is one of mammoth importance for both sides’ chances at finals football in 2008.
After losing to the Warriors last weekend the Knights have slipped down to 10th position on the NRL ladder and need to halt the slide, without their Origin stars, or face an uphill battle to qualify into the post season.
The Bulldogs are on their last legs after being hammered by Melbourne last round. Injuries have cruelled their squad and the fact they are currently in 14th position on the ladder means a resurrection needs to come soon, or Steve Folkes’ last season will be spent avoiding the wooden spoon rather than celebrating a last hurrah in the semis.
The home side will welcome back Matt Utai and Daniel Holdsworth from injury for the clash, meaning Heka Nanai and Joe Williams make way.
Frank Winterstein, Fred Briggs and Aaron Groom also come into the side on the bench at the expense of Michael Sullivan, Lorenzo Ma’afu and Gary Warburton.
Groom could be a blessing or a curse – his attacking ability is sensational but his defence is very raw and the second he steps over the white line he can expect Knights’ attackers hunting for him.
For the Knights Steve Simpson, Kurt Gidley and Danny Buderus are away on Origin duty meaning Danny Wicks will start at prop, Matt Hilder will start at hooker and Daniel Tolar comes onto the bench.
Hilder was more than admirable the last time Buderus was absent – and he’ll need to be again as his performance filling in shapes as the crucial component to the Knights’ returning to the winners circle.
Watch out Bulldogs: The Knights know they need to go forward before sideways but as one of the better lateral-moving teams in the competition they will send the ball to the wings when the opportunity arises, knowing full well the defence of both Hazem El Masri and Matt Utai has been far from solid. El Masri is missing 35 per cent of his tackles this season while Utai is missing a mammoth 40 per cent. Big Knights’ wingers Cooper Vuna and James McManus will be licking their lips, hoping to make those percentages even worse.
Watch out Knights: The Bulldogs still lead the NRL in line breaks, with 60 for the season, so Newcastle’s defence needs to be primed. With 70 tackle saves so far this season the Knights’ scramble defence has been pretty good and that will need to continue if the Bulldogs poke through the line. Ben Roberts (eight), Matt Utai (six), Hazem El Masri (five) and Tim Winitana (five) are just some of the men to watch carefully.
Where it will be won: In the forwards. The Bulldogs know they need to go through the Knights before they can go around them and the same can be said about the Knights on the Bulldogs. Whichever side wins the battle on the ground is going to have the field position to take advantage. Currently the Knights average 118 metres more across the ground per match and without Buderus they’ll need every one of those metres without to take control of the ruck area.
Considering both sides have let in multiple tries from kicks (Bulldogs 15, Knights 12) their defence against the boot will also go a long way to deciding a winner.
Bulldog Ben Roberts and Knight Jarrod Mullen will pull out all stops with their kicking arsenal in an effort to gain an edge.
The History: Played 29; Bulldogs 16, Knights 12, drawn 1. The two sides have traded wins over the past eight matches with the only stat leaning towards one side over the other being the record at ANZ Stadium where the Bulldogs hold a 5-2 advantage over the Knights.
Conclusion: This is a close one. If the game was in Newcastle you might lean to the Knights but it’s not and they are without their three best players. The Bulldogs are also under-strength but with their season seemingly on the line might just be a little more desperate. Obviously it could go either way… this is a game to consult the tarot cards to come up with a final call.
Sean Hampstead
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