18th club, whose next?

[Perth Red]

It will come down to what the broadcasters want. If they decide that Bris 3 will draw higher ratings on FTA than a team in Perth or NZ 2 then that's what they will fund.

Sky NZ won't throw in much more money for NZ 2 and neither will Foxtel or Ch9.

Perth should have the 18th licence, but what value does it provide to Ch9?

I think the next few years will determine where the 18th team is based. If Dolphins increase ratings and attendances in Brisbane then Ch9, Foxtel and ARLC will go with the Jets or Firehawks. ARLC already said both bids have a chance of getting the 18th licence. Easts mentioned in last year's annual report that they plan on having an NRL side within the next ten years.

Only real value is in a new time slot for the extra game with live games to the east coast Either late saturdy night or early Sunday evening. How much fta or ptv/streaming would value that is uncertain. Be nice if the nrl actually made the decision for the benefit of the growth of the game rather than the demand of tv though! They should be spinning it that the value is in the extra game a week, regardless of where the 18th team is to make that game happen.

 

[Perth Red]

If the NRL is still looking at “conservative” approach for the 18th team it may even be worth Perth, NZ2 or Adelaide having serious discussions with the Bears. It’s not ideal but with that history behind them along with Leagues club, juniors, etc then it could appeal to V’landys and co.

Of course some assurances would have to be in place to ensure they don’t cut and run back to Central Coast as soon as they get the chance.

There’s some disadvantages sure but it also provides Leagues club backing, a ready made reserve team and juniors plus a modest supporter base in Sydney that they could sell specialised memberships for.

If the Perth franchise was predominatly owned by NRLWA I could see that working. If it was owned by a private owner/s I can’t see them wanting to share ownership with a nsw cup team. There could be a non ownership model involving the bears, like firehawks proposed for jets, but doubt bears would go for that just to get the brand back in the nrl. Bears LC doesn’t have much money to put in, the value for perth would be in the feeder arrangement and as you say getting increased membership from any surviving ns fans in Sydney. I dont see bears having much cash to throw at a joint ownership.

 

[ReddFelon]

Where it should is WA. That's a no brainer. Unfortunately, the ARLC and NRL are very inward-looking. The AFL just announced that Alastair Clarkson is part of the Tasmania bid (Hawthorn 2013-2015 premierships coach). The NRL "expands" into a market it already had, the AFL is looking to add Tasmania and they already know that they'll have 20 teams if they add a 19th. Which realistically would be Peel in WA seeing as the other two teams are Perth based.

I would love the NRL to be forward-thinking for a change, but they'll probably just go with the Jets in 2025 for a 2027 start.

 

[jim_57]

If the Perth franchise was predominatly owned by NRLWA I could see that working. If it was owned by a private owner/s I can’t see them wanting to share ownership with a nsw cup team. There could be a non ownership model involving the bears, like firehawks proposed for jets, but doubt bears would go for that just to get the brand back in the nrl. Bears LC doesn’t have much money to put in, the value for perth would be in the feeder arrangement and as you say getting increased membership from any surviving ns fans in Sydney. I dont see bears having much cash to throw at a joint ownership.

Yeh agree with most of that, just a thought if the NRL are really sticking to their “safe, history, Consolidation” tactics it could be a sweetener.

For Perth I agree with what you’ve said in the past that a link with PNG should be a no-brained as well. Potential to unearth lots of players from a place that will most likely never have their own team for safety & logistical reasons. You could add Fiji to that or partner them up with Adelaide or even Melbourne for that matter.

 

[Perth Red]

Couldn’t agree more!

 

[Get Rid of The Donkeys]

In

In my experience the egos of two owners usually causes problems unless they are mates or already business partners. There sense in a perth club have a feeder arrangement with a intrust cup side, especially for jnr elite level but can’t see a joint ownership on opposite sides of the country working.

Andrew Abdo's comment about the NRL not wanting to invest millions of dollars into the new franchise and it needing to be competitive from its inception makes me think the 18th licence will go to the Firehawks or Jets. NZ 2 and the Pirates will need some sort of assistance to be competitive from day one because they don't have the infrastructure of the Dolphins or Firehawks.

If I was The Dolphins I would be on the phone to the WA Gov about the worth of taking 3 games a year to Perth Oval. Both parties would benefit. Queenslanders looking for a holiday would love it. WA tourist companies could set up a tour for Queenslanders to swim with real dolphins at the beach during the week and finish it off on a Sunday arvo with a game at Perth Oval to see The Dolphins play a Sydney team. The money generated from taking 3 games to Perth Oval would be better than playing in front of 11,500 fans at Dolphin Oval. April-May would be a great time for it.

Perth Wildlife Encounters Dolphin Swim

www.dolphins.com.au

 

[Bulldog2020]

If 7 own the FTA rights, the chances of a Perth team increase given 7's interests/links in WA.

If it stays with 9, NZ 2 might be more likely with Fox contributing extra to gain another exclusive game & Sky chipping in.

 

[siv]

CC Bears is the next logical choice

Ipswich basket case
Brisbane Easts - they will takeover Broncos one day
NZ Orcas - no money in NZ
PNG - pipe dream
Perth - rusted on AFL state - high costs. Covid has tought RL not to overspend.
Adelaide - rusted on state - relocation best option

 

[mongoose]

CC Bears is the next logical choice

Ipswich basket case
Brisbane Easts - they will takeover Broncos one day
NZ Orcas - no money in NZ
PNG - pipe dream
Perth - rusted on AFL state - high costs. Covid has tought RL not to overspend.
Adelaide - rusted on state - relocation best option

Central Coast - right beside an already saturated market, won't bring any new fans to the sport

 

[siv]

Central Coast - right beside an already saturated market, won't bring any new fans to the sport

But in era where covid could stop the game at a single sneeze

Especially with the fickle border rules

Its one less team to have to travel interstate

 

[jim_57]

But in era where covid could stop the game at a single sneeze

Especially with the fickle border rules

Its one less team to have to travel interstate

Covid border rules will be long gone before an 18th team is even seriously talked about.

 

[Marlins]

If The Dolphins are a success for the Nrl & Broadcasters, which I believe they will be. I have no doubt the nrl will double down on the securing of Qld/Nsw when it comes to an 18th team. with that in mind I wouldn’t be surprised to see a 3rd Brisbane club. As TV Metros go, AFL’s biggest Metro is Mel, NRL’s Sydney, and my bold prediction is SQ will boast a bigger metro for the NRL then both in the next 20 years and this will be on the back of BRI expansion and consolidation.
Also probably the best chance for the bears to renter the comp through the central coast. The north of Sydney & CC do need a team despite what many punters here think.

what I think will happen over the next decade or so -
18th Team 25’-27’ - bri3 or CCBears
19/20 teams 27’-33’ - NZ2, WA, SA, Pacific, PNG

the best thing about expansion in the nrl atm is theres so many great choices in so many different locations. Spoiled really.
we are in a position where realistically we could have teams in CQ,NZ,PNG,WA,SA,Pacific Islands and they could all bring value to the game.
I know a lot of punters here think the Nrl should’ve by now expanded further, but the thing is the game is still getting bigger in all those areas without an nrl team. Give it time and I think most of those places will be rewarded in The future. How many other sport comps in Australia could boast of having all them areas as serious options without having to spend huge amount of dollars?

 

[greenBV4]

the best thing about expansion in the nrl atm is theres so many great choices in so many different locations. Spoiled really.
we are in a position where realistically we could have teams in CQ,NZ,PNG,WA,SA,Pacific Islands and they could all bring value to the game.
I know a lot of punters here think the Nrl should’ve by now expanded further, but the thing is the game is still getting bigger in all those areas without an nrl team. Give it time and I think most of those places will be rewarded in The future. How many other sport comps in Australia could boast of having all them areas as serious options without having to spend huge amount of dollars?

This is so very typical NRL thinking

"Oh we're good look at all these options we COULD have"
meanwhile the AFL is going ahead and adding teams in EVERY state

Brisbane 2 is long overdue and Im very keen to see how the Dolphins go, but if team 18 isn't genuine expansion the NRL are kidding themselves

 

[titoelcolombiano]

Y

It will come down to what the broadcasters want. If they decide that Bris 3 will draw higher ratings on FTA than a team in Perth or NZ 2 then that's what they will fund.

Sky NZ won't throw in much more money for NZ 2 and neither will Foxtel or Ch9.

Perth should have the 18th licence, but what value does it provide to Ch9?

I think the next few years will determine where the 18th team is based. If Dolphins increase ratings and attendances in Brisbane then Ch9, Foxtel and ARLC will go with the Jets or Firehawks. ARLC already said both bids have a chance of getting the 18th licence. Easts mentioned in last year's annual report that they plan on having an NRL side within the next ten years.

You might be right mate. Vlandys said recently that all three bids were impressive and if the NRL had more time and money (?) they would have added team 18 straight away

 

[Billythekid]

After all these years of waiting for an expansion to 18 teams and now it feels like the most likely outcome is 2 more SEQLD teams. f**k me i know this sport is insular at times but I didn’t think it was this bad.

 

[titoelcolombiano]

Where it should is WA. That's a no brainer. Unfortunately, the ARLC and NRL are very inward-looking. The AFL just announced that Alastair Clarkson is part of the Tasmania bid (Hawthorn 2013-2015 premierships coach). The NRL "expands" into a market it already had, the AFL is looking to add Tasmania and they already know that they'll have 20 teams if they add a 19th. Which realistically would be Peel in WA seeing as the other two teams are Perth based.

I would love the NRL to be forward-thinking for a change, but they'll probably just go with the Jets in 2025 for a 2027 start.

The AFL 'expanding' into WA and Tasmania isn't much different to the NRL 'expanding' into Brisbane

 

[titoelcolombiano]

I wonder if we could see the demise of a club

And go back to 16

The most likely club could be the Warriors

With the Sky money rolling in, the warriors aren't going anywhere

 

[ReddFelon]

The AFL 'expanding' into WA and Tasmania isn't much different to the NRL 'expanding' into Brisbane

It kind of is though. Tasmania currently has two professional teams, JackJumpers and Hurricanes. Having their own team is hugely different to having other teams occasionally come to visit. That is not the same as Queensland getting a 4th team.

Peel getting a team is similar to Redcliffe getting one, but see how the difference is the heartland expansion is coming after the actual expansion into a market not currently represented?

 

[titoelcolombiano]

It kind of is though. Tasmania currently has two professional teams, JackJumpers and Hurricanes. Having their own team is hugely different to having other teams occasionally come to visit. That is not the same as Queensland getting a 4th team.

Peel getting a team is similar to Redcliffe getting one, but see how the difference is the heartland expansion is coming after the actual expansion into a market not currently represented?

Yeah for sure. I just hope that the The Dolphins are the beginning of our run at expansion over the next 20 years...

Perth
NZ2
Adelaide

 

[ReddFelon]

Yeah for sure. I just hope that the The Dolphins are the beginning of our run at expansion over the next 20 years...

Perth
NZ2
Adelaide

I would love it, to be honest I wondered if they would consider the 18th team straight away.

Hopefully we get a Perth team and a relocation to Adelaide ASAP.