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18th team still possible this tv deal

Perth Red

Post Whore
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53,672
For us to expand further we really need to increase our junior playing base by double at least what it is today. need far more junior coaching clinics in the school holidays.
Are you reading this you people at the ARLC?
I'm not so sure we do tbh. Not to a massive amount anway There's probably at least 50-75,000 kids playing RL in Aus and NZ? (Sadly we dont know as NRL doesnt share facts anymore)
I find it hard to believe that we cant take 10% of them to the next level, then 1% of that 5000 to the elite level then 1% of that a year (50 players) to the NRL level. (That's around 3 quality rookies a year per club making their 1st grade debuts)

I believe the opportunity, pathways and quality of coaching and jnr development is the big issue, not the baseline number of kids playing the game. When you look at our elite level U16's, U18's U20's comps/systems it hardly smacks of high quality high intensity programs. Partly as it is reliant on NRL clubs/LC funding it with whatever money they can afford so there is massive variability. seems to me its pick the kid whose already 90kg plus and see what he can do.

Example to compare is NFL. In a country with 20 times the population and double the top tier teams They have around
1million kids playing high school football
76k of them go on to play college football (8%)
around 700 of them get drafted or try out to NFL clubs (<1%)
around 250 make it to the NFl first team a year (35%) and the quality at that level is insane.
 

Colk

Bench
Messages
4,251
I'm not so sure we do tbh. Not to a massive amount anway There's probably at least 50-75,000 kids playing RL in Aus and NZ? (Sadly we dont know as NRL doesnt share facts anymore)
I find it hard to believe that we cant take 10% of them to the next level, then 1% of that 5000 to the elite level then 1% of that a year (50 players) to the NRL level. (That's around 3 quality rookies a year per club making their 1st grade debuts)

I believe the opportunity, pathways and quality of coaching and jnr development is the big issue, not the baseline number of kids playing the game. When you look at our elite level U16's, U18's U20's comps/systems it hardly smacks of high quality high intensity programs. Partly as it is reliant on NRL clubs/LC funding it with whatever money they can afford so there is massive variability. seems to me its pick the kid whose already 90kg plus and see what he can do.

Example to compare is NFL. In a country with 20 times the population and double the top tier teams They have around
1million kids playing high school football
76k of them go on to play college football (8%)
around 700 of them get drafted or try out to NFL clubs (<1%)
around 250 make it to the NFl first team a year (35%) and the quality at that level is insane.

I think the main difference between American sports and Australian sports is the junior structure and the financial and commercial support of that structure by fans, sponsors etc. 80,000 or packed houses going to any kind of junior game is just not going to happen here (it’s unbelievable that it happens anywhere to be quite honest)

I think you are right though about RL not having the right structure via NRL teams doing directly (it is completely the wrong way of doing it) but the conversion rate is always going to be less than the NFL, regardless of the structure, because of the difference in commercial support of the junior/college athletes.
 

Perth Red

Post Whore
Messages
53,672
I think the main difference between American sports and Australian sports is the junior structure and the financial and commercial support of that structure by fans, sponsors etc. 80,000 or packed houses going to any kind of junior game is just not going to happen here (it’s unbelievable that it happens anywhere to be quite honest)

I think you are right though about RL not having the right structure via NRL teams doing directly (it is completely the wrong way of doing it) but the conversion rate is always going to be less than the NFL, regardless of the structure, because of the difference in commercial support of the junior/college athletes.
of course conversion rate will be less but it only needs to be much less, around 10% of what the nfl system produces each year. If we can’t develop 50 good kids a year out of 50k then adding another 10 or 20 thousand isn’t going to make much difference.
 
Messages
12,894
I think the main difference between American sports and Australian sports is the junior structure and the financial and commercial support of that structure by fans, sponsors etc. 80,000 or packed houses going to any kind of junior game is just not going to happen here (it’s unbelievable that it happens anywhere to be quite honest)

I think you are right though about RL not having the right structure via NRL teams doing directly (it is completely the wrong way of doing it) but the conversion rate is always going to be less than the NFL, regardless of the structure, because of the difference in commercial support of the junior/college athletes.
We certainly do need a bigger junior playing base without a doubt from all sections of society and hopefully that will make the parents fans of the game if there aren't already.
We do need to broaden our appeal.
 

Perth Red

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53,672
It will be sad if they overlook Perth. The game will never get a better opportunity to expand into new territory.
Best opportunity for Perth was 2013. We seem to have lost a bit of momentum in last couple of years, probably as fans are sick of being neglected over here. Grassroots is still growing well though, up 12% according to NRL report.
 

Colk

Bench
Messages
4,251
It will be sad if they overlook Perth. The game will never get a better opportunity to expand into new territory.

I would love if they did both GROTD - Put in both Perth and NZ 2 over a couple of year spread. Then for the 20th team (say another ten years or so) another team in SEQ.
 
Messages
7,816
Best opportunity for Perth was 2013. We seem to have lost a bit of momentum in last couple of years, probably as fans are sick of being neglected over here. Grassroots is still growing well though, up 12% according to NRL report.
If they added the Pirates in 2013 then the club would have an established fanbase by now.
I would love if they did both GROTD - Put in both Perth and NZ 2 over a couple of year spread. Then for the 20th team (say another ten years or so) another team in SEQ.
I think that's a reasonable timeframe for three new teams. I'd like to see the Easts Tigers develop a stronger profile in Logan, Redlands and Ipswich before bidding again. Brisbane 3 will need to have a sizeable catchment and revenue generating assets scattered over southern Brisbane if it wants to compete with the Broncos and Dolphins.
 

Perth Red

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53,672
Interestingly the money ($6mill) set aside for the bail put fund has been given back to the clubs To help them through covid. There is no longer an obligation on the nrl to bail anyone out, and theoretically no money in the pot to do so.
 

Perth Red

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53,672
From the alleged news ltd survey of NRL CEO and chairpeople

83% agreed the NRL made the right decision to add a 17th team into the competition for 2023.
61% of club bosses believe an 18th team should be added between 2025 and 2027 while 30% said after 2028.
A second New Zealand club won the vote for the 18th franchise’s location with 27% of the vote, with Perth in second with 22.5%.
83% of bosses disagreed with the competition being split into two conferences in the future.

 
Messages
7,816
From the alleged news ltd survey of NRL CEO and chairpeople

83% agreed the NRL made the right decision to add a 17th team into the competition for 2023.
61% of club bosses believe an 18th team should be added between 2025 and 2027 while 30% said after 2028.
A second New Zealand club won the vote for the 18th franchise’s location with 27% of the vote, with Perth in second with 22.5%.
83% of bosses disagreed with the competition being split into two conferences in the future.

The 18th team will come down to what Murdoch and Ch9 want.
 

Dogs Of War

Coach
Messages
12,597
PLUS no more bailouts for Sydney clubs, if one falls over then the license goes to Brisbane 3 - whether that's relocation or replacement.

To be honest. It would be good if the NRL put say $10mil aside, and then added $2m a year for a Sydney club relocation as a jackpot payout. Give it 10 years if no club has taken up the offer, it would be $30mil, NRL keep the interest on that amount. They would have to commit for 10 years minimum. NRL would have a hit list of areas that would be considered for a club to move to.

That said, who would actually be interested in that sort of cash. West Tigers? Manly if the current owners on sell? Sharks if they got back into financial difficulties. I really don't see any other club moving from Sydney.
 

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