Most form analysts are tipping Canberra as short priced favorites based on their outstanding form throughout the season. Admittedly i did not follow this comp throughout the year, however I see a very different picture and rate Brisbane as favorites. Some of my logic is as follows:
As both teams are playing away i checked out their away form. Of 12 away matches (excluding finals) Canberra won 9, while Brisbane won 7 + 1 draw. Of Canberra's 9 wins, 6 were by 6 points or less, while only 1 was by more than 12 points. Of Brisbane's 7 wins, 2 were by 6 points or less while 5 were by more than 12. Add to this their record at the venue (ANZ Stadium) and it seems Brisbane have the upper hand. Of 2 matches each Brisbane lost 1 by 13 points & won 1 by 28 points (v Bulldogs), while Canberra lost both by 14 points (v Bulldogs) and 12 points.
Last weeks finals revealed some telling form. I am of the opinion that Canberra played like a team that was going flat. Even though the Dragons had a woeful kicking game, they finished over the top of Canberra, who failed to score a point in the second half and were lucky to win. Brisbane however overcame a massive forward pack who clearly dominated the match. It was in my opinion a far better quality match and a perfect pipe opener for a grand final.
The fact that Brisbane have been instilled as huge underdogs and they were beaten by Canberra twice throughout the season is likely to have made them feel up against it and more determined. While the Canberra players will have been getting slaps on the back all week and being told how easily they are expected to win. I expect they will be complacent.
