A lot has been made of the home ground advantage tonight, but I don't think NSW have as much to worry about as the media let on. While it's true Queensland typically perform better in Queensland, it's usually in Games 2 where they usually play their best game. When it comes to Game I, it's a lot closer than some would have you think.
Let's review.
The renovations to Lang Park were complete in time for Game I of the 2003 series. In a tight game, NSW eventually caught Queensland wanting around the ruck and ran away with it to win 25-12.
In 2005, Queensland went into the series in the best shape it's ever been in. Three of the form teams in the competition were Brisbane, North Queensland and Melbourne who happened to have a contingent of Queensland players. Despite this, New South Wales almost pulled off one of the most remarkable comebacks in State of Origin history only for the Cowboys connection to steal it back at the death. 24-20 in the second golden point game in Origin history.
After coming off a dramatic 2006 campaign, Queensland roared into Suncorp as rare favourites for Game I of the 2007 series. Despite NSW taking a chance on some rookies, they found themselves leading 18-6 at the break after a brilliant solo try by Jarryd Hayne. Hayne would ultimately turn villain in the second half when he'd get Lockyer a try to wrap the game up for Queensland, but the Maroons had to fight hard for the win.
In 2011, New South Wales were coming off their first clean sweep since the 1989 series and turned to Ricky Stuart who was looking to ressurect his coaching career. In a game where Queensland were heavily favoured, NSW fought back from a 10-0 deficit to lead with 10 minutes remaining. However, in the final stages of the game, Lockyer combined with JT to send Slater over to escape with an unconvincing victory.
In 2014, New South Wales were starring nine consecutive series defeats in the face and there seemed to be little in that eventuating. Some untimely injuries and off-field incidents had affected the make-up of the NSW squad and with two away games, many thought it was a foregone conclusion. In one of the gutsiest displays in Rugby League history, NSW staged a remarkable upset to hold on and record a 12-8 victory.
If the 2014 victory was one of the Blues most courageous, than 2017 would have to rank right up there as one of their most dominant. After a tough opening stanza, New South Wales scored right on the break to take a vital 12-4 lead into the sheds. Smelling blood in the water, NSW went for the jugular and went onto record a 28-4 victory, which turned out to be the biggest scoreline by a NSW team at Suncorp Stadium.
That leads us up to the 2019 series. It currently stands 3-3, with NSW going into this game as deserved favourites. While playing infront of your state helps, Game I is filled with so many nerves and unknowns that it rarely plays a factor. It doesn't matter whether they're wearing Maroon or Blue, the game will come down to the players who back themselves. Which player is willing to take a chance on the grubber? Which winger will challenge the other down the sideline? Who will throw that offload? Risk that penalty? Take that run? Make that play? To make themselves a part of Origin folklore.
We'll know this and more in three hours time.
