2021 R24 Fri - Sydney 12-54 South Sydney @ Suncorp

[Jono078]

 

[Valheru]

View attachment 52826

How is form determined out of interest?

Isaac Liu is in tremendous form.

 

[Nealo 12]

It was wrong last week for Souffs anyway

 

[yobbo84]

How is form determined out of interest?

Isaac Liu is in tremendous form.

According to that graph Drew Hutchison is in better form than Cody Walker. Also Cameron Murray has the worst form in Souths' pack outside of Jaydn Su'A?

 

[ACTPanthers]

Bunnies will be too strong and motivated against a depleted Roosters

32-12 Bunnies

 

[Jono078]

How is form determined out of interest?

Isaac Liu is in tremendous form.

That form you see there is for that particular simulation. What I’m doing is simulating the game many times and then getting data from that and presenting a one off result which is close to the average of the multiple simulations. So no, the form you see there does not reflect real life form.

 

[The_Frog]

That form you see there is for that particular simulation. What I’m doing is simulating the game many times and then getting data from that and presenting a one off result which is close to the average of the multiple simulations. So no, the form you see there does not reflect real life form.

What I think would be interesting is if you included the % of simulations won by each side. I wonder how this would compare to winning chances as represented by betting odds. Betting companies no doubt have some kind of algorithm to work out winning chances but it would include money invested, not just on-field form and what players are playing. For this game Sportsbet have Souths $1.25 and Roosters $4.00. This equates to 25% Roosters and 80% Rabbitohs, since they have a margin in their favour built in.

They also give the Roosters 12.5 start which is very close to the margin here.

 

[Valheru]

That form you see there is for that particular simulation. What I’m doing is simulating the game many times and then getting data from that and presenting a one off result which is close to the average of the multiple simulations. So no, the form you see there does not reflect real life form.

Awesome.

Thanks for the clarification

 

[Valheru]

Bunnies will be too strong and motivated against a depleted Roosters

32-12 Bunnies

I don't doubt they will be too strong but what really motivation do souths have this week? Their next meaningful game is finals week 1 against your lot.

 

[Jim Rockford]

I don't doubt they will be too strong but what really motivation do souths have this week? Their next meaningful game is finals week 1 against your lot.

As a Roosters fan you should know that even if this game has no bearing on standings, the bragging rights alone are plenty enough motivation for our boys to rip in.

 

[ACTPanthers]

I don't doubt they will be too strong but what really motivation do souths have this week? Their next meaningful game is finals week 1 against your lot.

Momentum going into finals - Bunnies would have belief they can go all the way, whereas the Roosters know they're batting above their average with the number of outs they have.

Just my opinion in the end, and I'm not really known for my insight...

 

[Jono078]

What I think would be interesting is if you included the % of simulations won by each side. I wonder how this would compare to winning chances as represented by betting odds. Betting companies no doubt have some kind of algorithm to work out winning chances but it would include money invested, not just on-field form and what players are playing. For this game Sportsbet have Souths $1.25 and Roosters $4.00. This equates to 25% Roosters and 80% Rabbitohs, since they have a margin in their favour built in.

They also give the Roosters 12.5 start which is very close to the margin here.

Yep I can do that, it's just not visually appealing or I haven't made it look good. Example below;



So as you can see, Rabbitohs win 61% of the time (on 100 simulations, some times I do thousands), on average they win by 13+ whereas if Rooster win it's 1-12 on average.

If people would prefer me to upload that stuff too, I can, just as I said, not visually appealing but I do get the data may be interesting to some.

 

[The_Frog]

Yep I can do that, it's just not visually appealing or I haven't made it look good. Example below;

View attachment 52838

So as you can see, Rabbitohs win 61% of the time (on 100 simulations, some times I do thousands), on average they win by 13+ whereas if Rooster win it's 1-12 on average.

If people would prefer me to upload that stuff too, I can, just as I said, not visually appealing but I do get the data may be interesting to some.

I guess I'm a bit of a numbers nerd. Entirely up to you.

 

[Jono078]

I guess I'm a bit of a numbers nerd. Entirely up to you.

Me too, if you can't tell haha.

 

[Cogburn]

Momentum going into finals - Bunnies would have belief they can go all the way, whereas the Roosters know they're batting above their average with the number of outs they have.

Just my opinion in the end, and I'm not really known for my insight...

And yet souffs losses have been greater against Penrith and Melbourne. If Easts were full strength we'd be favourites. Souffs should towel up a vastly understrength Roosters.

 

[Babyface O'reilly]

Reckon Robbo will have the boys training with butt plugs this week

 

[This Year?]

The lack of banter between Roosters and Souths fans is very concerning.
In years gone by it was one of the better gameday threads. What a bizarre season 2021 is.

 

[This Year?]

Reckon Robbo will have the boys training with butt plugs this week

The Dragons might learn a thing or two at training this week then.

 

[BunniesMan]

We simply do not lose to teams below us on the ladder. There is a clear hierarchy.

Storm
Panthers
Us
Daylight
The rest

 

[Alderley Rooster]

We simply do not lose to teams below us on the ladder. There is a clear hierarchy.

Storm
Panthers
Us
Daylight
The rest

If only we were at full strength that wouldnt be the case....