2024 Crowd Watch

[jim_57]

After 20 Rounds
2023 Aggregate 2,700,284 Ave, 18,245
2024 Aggregate 2,839,315 Ave. 19,185

Up 5.2%
An average of 16,394 over the remaining 56 games is required for a H&A record

Some “sure thing” big crowd games remaining in the last 7 rounds:

- 3x Broncos home games. 2 of which should sell out.
- Dolphins Vs Broncos. Will sell out.
- 3x Warriors home games. 1 already sold out, last 2 down to GA only.
- Cowboys V Broncos. Already sold out.
- Titans V Broncos. Should sell out.
- Eels V Panthers. Should be mid-high 20s at worst.
- 3x Knights home games. All Sunday afternoons.
- Rabbitohs V Roosters at Accor. If Souths keep winning this could be huge.


Not quite in that category but still notable you have:
- 4x Panthers home games, last games before stadium rebuild. All should get good crowds.
- A couple Roosters games Vs Eels & Manly which should sell well.
- 3x Sunday arvo games for the Dragons at Wollongong plus Vs Bulldogs at Kogarah.
- A Sunday arvo game for Manly.
- Tigers games V Eels & Rabbitohs at Campbelltown.
- 2x Storm games at family friendly Sat 5:30pm time.
- 2x more Cowboys games on Saturday nights.
- Dolphins V Titans & Warriors which you’d hope would both be 25k+ (see above).

On the other side of it there a few potential sub 10k crowds. 2x Leichhardt games on Thursday night and the Bulldogs’ Bundaberg game are the obvious ones.

 

[titoelcolombiano]

What is the smallest avg crowd in melb?

St Kilda, Bulldogs and North Melbourne all sit around 30k. Their averages get dragged up a fair bit by playing the four big Melbourne clubs.

 

[Perth Red]

Who goes to multiple games over a weekend. Most would just watch their own team at most.

All MCG AFL games have $27 GA tickets, which is the top part of the top level. So, cheaper than NRL. However, it works very differently to NRL in Sydney, as 80% of attendees would be members of one of the clubs, the AFL, or the MCC. An average reserve seat membership would be around $500 per year for 11 games.

Without looking up the numbers, I reckon Storm would have a similar ratio. So, clubs get bulk of revenue at the start of the season regardless of how many attend games.

Part of storms problem is the high price for sideline seats, especially if you’re a family. Lots of people dont like to be in the ends but your forking out $150-$200 plus food and drink to take the family for a game in the better seats. That’s a pretty expensive family event to do eleven times a year.

 

[Ride the Lion to Zion]

So fans can attend any one of multiple games a week. We will see 1m people in Sydney attend games, Brisbane 600k or so

The rest of it probably lies the issue. How does an NRL ticket price compare to AFL or the big soccer matches down there?

What were ticket prices like for Fitzroy v South Melbourne at the Gabba?

How do they compare with Broncos and Dolphins games at Suncorp?

 

[Iamback]

What were ticket prices like for Fitzroy v South Melbourne at the Gabba?

How do they compare with Broncos and Dolphins games at Suncorp?

Broncos are different they are almost sold out most weeks but yes we have discussed their prices are 2 high.

 

[azza29]

Part of storms problem is the high price for sideline seats, especially if you’re a family.

The memberships aren't terrible value for families but agree the single game prices are a bit high, especially for Cat 2 and 3 bays. Arguably they should scrap Cat 3 and flip those to GA, there's no reason those seats should attract a premium over the ends.

 

[yakstorm]

The Broncos on the other hand have been dropping thousands on fireworks and getting acts that you'd actually expect at Origin and GFs (not great but you get it).

How dare you talk about Timomatic and Amy Shark like that!

 

[jim_57]

The memberships aren't terrible value for families but agree the single game prices are a bit high, especially for Cat 2 and 3 bays. Arguably they should scrap Cat 3 and flip those to GA, there's no reason those seats should attract a premium over the ends.

This is from Storm’s GA membership, ticketek sell those sideline end bays for $49 as bronze though. I guess it’s never really come to a head as those bays barely sell. I’ve sat up there using a GA pass, better view of the whole ground than behind the posts IMO, plus I can stretch out.

 

[BuffaloRules]

One code has invested heavily in nsw, one hasn’t in vic. Maybe there’s a difference?

the lack of Investment certainly hasn’t prevented the Storm having onfield success ,,,

if it was just about investment …then GWS would be flying crowds wise

 

[Perth Red]

the lack of Investment certainly hasn’t prevented the Storm having onfield success ,,,

if it was just about investment …then GWS would be flying crowds wise

we were talking about crowds, not just on-field success. Getting more people interested in watching a game, more media covg of the game, more kids playing etc etc also has knock ons into number of rusted on fans generated who are willing to attend games you'd think?
GWS are a bit like Storm in that they are based in the most parochial of places supporting an opposition code. Its a long burn for both sports. Storm have done well to capitalise on the on-field success to double crowd numbers. Still a lot more that could be done though.

 

[BuffaloRules]

we were talking about crowds, not just on-field success. Getting more people interested in watching a game, more media covg of the game, more kids playing etc etc also has knock ons into number of rusted on fans generated who are willing to attend games you'd think?
GWS are a bit like Storm in that they are based in the most parochial of places supporting an opposition code. It’sa long burn for both sports. Storm have done well to capitalise on the on-field success to double crowd numbers. Still a lot more that could be done though.

well you were mentioning investment …not crowds …

On field success helps a lot to get people to show up…look at Penrith for example

 

[Perth Red]

well you were mentioning investment …not crowds …

On field success helps a lot to get people to show up…look at Penrith for example

I was talking about investment = crowd growth. But yes some sustained on field plays a major part in crowd uplift for most clubs. Usually a 30-40% uplift. (Newcastle (and warriors this year) being the main outliers)

 

[SLRBRONCOS]

The broncos to ticketing rep is doing a poor job as usual. The 700ish seats released this morning have basically sold.

Meanwhile, 1200ish restricted view seats have not been released. If you’re reading this, and I think you might be, come onnnnnnn

edit at 6:30pm - lol they've put up the 'behind the posts' restricted view.

 

[yakstorm]

Promising signs for Saturday's clash between the Roosters & Sea Eagles with Level 2 south being opened up already.

Indicates the crowd should be pushing into 20K already. Surprisingly the club isn't running their Monday Madness offer for this game (though pretty much have for every other home game). Hopefully it won't stall momentum and we can push towards 25K+ for the game.

I'm a bit surprised how Thursday's NRLW match in Newcastle is selling. The NRL & Knights put all the lower east + hills as GA for $10 Adults & $5 kids in an effort to make the ground look good on TV.

They originally opened only 4 bays on the lower west as reserved seats at $25 for adults & $15 for kids, possibly expecting these seats not to sell because you can buy an equivalent seat on the other side for half the price.

Anyway, bays 7 & 8 are now open, with 6 reserved bays at over 95% full. I have no idea how the GA area is selling, but hopefully it is going as strongly as the reserve section (at least) and we might be looking at 14K-16K for the season opener.

 

[jim_57]

The broncos to ticketing rep is doing a poor job as usual. The 700ish seats released this morning have basically sold.

Meanwhile, 1200ish restricted view seats have not been released. If you’re reading this, and I think you might be, come onnnnnnn

edit at 6:30pm - lol they've put up the 'behind the posts' restricted view.

And there they are..

Broncos 5th sellout this year is it?

 

[SLRBRONCOS]

And there they are..

Broncos 5th sellout this year is it?

Yep!

Cowboys
Dolphins
Titans
Penrith
Bulldogs

The game against Cronulla went very close too.

*caveat alert* - if we go undefeated the next two against Parra and Melbourne will probably sell out as well. A 40k average is hanging on for dear life, a bit like our season!

 

[titoelcolombiano]

It's hard to argue (as some are on here) that the Broncos' pricing is too high when it's tough to get a good seat for their games these days and we are seeing multiple sell-outs.

For what it's worth, I've got both a Broncos and Dolphins membership and it makes going to games cheap as chips.

 

[yakstorm]

After 20 Rounds
2023 Aggregate 2,700,284 Ave, 18,245
2024 Aggregate 2,839,315 Ave. 19,185

Up 5.2%
An average of 16,394 over the remaining 56 games is required for a H&A record

So we roughly need just over 918K over the remaining 56 games to set a new record. Looking at the games that are left and guestimating based upon team's positions and current pre-sales (and taking a conservative approach for a number of games), I'm getting around 988K.

Provided the weather stays alright and some games perform better than predicted, getting a million for the last 56 games is a realistic possibility.

Guestimates:
Rnd 21:
Warriors v WT 20K / Eels v Storm 12K / Broncos v Bulldogs 35K / Cowboys v Sharks 20K / Roosters v Sea Eagles 20K / Dragons v Panthers 16K / Dolphins v Titans 22K / Raiders v Rabbitohs 12K
Total: 157K

Rnd 22:
WT v Cowboys 10K / Warriors v Eels 20K / Dolphins v Roosters 19K (Perth) / Titans v Broncos 25K / Storm v Dragons 18K / Sharks v Rabbitohs 12K / Panthers v Knights 18K / Bulldogs v Raiders 16K (Belmore)
Total: 138K

Rnd 23:
Rabbitohs v Storm 12K / Titans v Sharks 13K / Eels v Panthers 18K / Raiders v Sea Eagles 12K / Cowboys v Broncos 23K / Dragons v Bulldogs 16K / Dolphins v Warriors 25K / Knights v Wests Tigers 20K
Total: 139K

Rnd 24:
Panthers v Storm 22K / Sea Eagles v Warriors 17K / Roosters v Eels 20K / Bulldogs v Dolphins 7K (Bundaberg) / Cowboys v Raiders 18K / Wests Tigers v Rabbitohs 12K / Dragons v Titans 14K / Sharks v Knights 12K
Total: 122K

Rnd 25:
WT v Sea Eagles 8K / Warriors v Bulldogs 20K / Broncos v Eels 35K / Raiders v Panthers 12K / Storm v Dolphins 16K / Rabbitohs v Knights 13K / Titans v Roosters 13K / Dragons v Sharks 16K
Total: 133K

Rnd 26:
Cowboys v Storm 20K / Bulldogs v Sea Eagles 16K / Panthers v Rabbitohs 20K / Eels v Dragons 12K / Dolphins v Broncos 45K / Sharks v Warriors 12K / Knights v Titans 16K / Roosters v Raiders 15K
Total: 156K

Rnd 27:
Broncos v Storm 35K / WT v Eels 12K / Rabbitohs v Roosters 16K / Dragons v Raiders 12K / Bulldogs v Cowboys 15K / Panthers v Titans 20K / Sea Eagles v Sharks 17K / Knights v Dolphins 16K
Total: 143K

 

[DIOGENES]

So we roughly need just over 918K over the remaining 56 games to set a new record. Looking at the games that are left and guestimating based upon team's positions and current pre-sales (and taking a conservative approach for a number of games), I'm getting around 988K.

Provided the weather stays alright and some games perform better than predicted, getting a million for the last 56 games is a realistic possibility.

Guestimates:
Rnd 21:
Warriors v WT 20K / Eels v Storm 12K / Broncos v Bulldogs 35K / Cowboys v Sharks 20K / Roosters v Sea Eagles 20K / Dragons v Panthers 16K / Dolphins v Titans 22K / Raiders v Rabbitohs 12K
Total: 157K

Rnd 22:
WT v Cowboys 10K / Warriors v Eels 20K / Dolphins v Roosters 19K (Perth) / Titans v Broncos 25K / Storm v Dragons 18K / Sharks v Rabbitohs 12K / Panthers v Knights 18K / Bulldogs v Raiders 16K (Belmore)
Total: 138K

Rnd 23:
Rabbitohs v Storm 12K / Titans v Sharks 13K / Eels v Panthers 18K / Raiders v Sea Eagles 12K / Cowboys v Broncos 23K / Dragons v Bulldogs 16K / Dolphins v Warriors 25K / Knights v Wests Tigers 20K
Total: 139K

Rnd 24:
Panthers v Storm 22K / Sea Eagles v Warriors 17K / Roosters v Eels 20K / Bulldogs v Dolphins 7K (Bundaberg) / Cowboys v Raiders 18K / Wests Tigers v Rabbitohs 12K / Dragons v Titans 14K / Sharks v Knights 12K
Total: 122K

Rnd 25:
WT v Sea Eagles 8K / Warriors v Bulldogs 20K / Broncos v Eels 35K / Raiders v Panthers 12K / Storm v Dolphins 16K / Rabbitohs v Knights 13K / Titans v Roosters 13K / Dragons v Sharks 16K
Total: 133K

Rnd 26:
Cowboys v Storm 20K / Bulldogs v Sea Eagles 16K / Panthers v Rabbitohs 20K / Eels v Dragons 12K / Dolphins v Broncos 45K / Sharks v Warriors 12K / Knights v Titans 16K / Roosters v Raiders 15K
Total: 156K

Rnd 27:
Broncos v Storm 35K / WT v Eels 12K / Rabbitohs v Roosters 16K / Dragons v Raiders 12K / Bulldogs v Cowboys 15K / Panthers v Titans 20K / Sea Eagles v Sharks 17K / Knights v Dolphins 16K
Total: 143K

I’ve rung Antony Green but he’s not willing to call it yet.

there was a big surge for the last 2 rounds last year while final 8 positions were sorted - i think that occurs frequently and may boost it well passed a million.