$50000 bet on the Knights

[Spot On]

So, which one of you blokes put the $50000 bet on the Knights to win the comp before the start of the season???? You would have had a few heart palpitations over the past couple of months but they've made the finals and you're going to get a run for your money. How are you feeling about your chances of collecting a million?

 

[Karmawave]

So, which one of you blokes put the $50000 bet on the Knights to win the comp before the start of the season???? You would have had a few heart palpitations over the past couple of months but they've made the finals and you're going to get a run for your money. How are you feeling about your chances of collecting a million?

Well whoever it is SHOULD be feeling like the worlds biggest idiot given that now Knights have actually made the semi finals and the comp is down to 8, the Knights are paying $34 at various betting agencies instead of the $20 odds they got before a ball was kicked when the comp was still at 16 teams.

Not real smart is it. ;-)

Taking 20-1 odds in a 16 team race, while they are 34-1 in an 8 team one.

Worlds biggest idiot betting 50K on a rugby league winner before a ball is kicked anyway. But good luck to him/her.

Even a bigger idiot for investing that kind of money with the TAB - the worst value odds you can get.

 

[Adsy]

For the reasons Karma gives the person is an absolute moron with more money then sense.

However, if the Knights get to the final 4, Id advise the punter to start hedging.

 

[Alex28]

Wasn't Karma then

 

[Baron Vo Mandor]

Well whoever it is SHOULD be feeling like the worlds biggest idiot given that now Knights have actually made the semi finals and the comp is down to 8, the Knights are paying $34 at various betting agencies instead of the $20 odds they got before a ball was kicked when the comp was still at 16 teams.

Not real smart is it. ;-)

Taking 20-1 odds in a 16 team race, while they are 34-1 in an 8 team one.

Worlds biggest idiot betting 50K on a rugby league winner before a ball is kicked anyway. But good luck to him/her.

Even a bigger idiot for investing that kind of money with the TAB - the worst value odds you can get.

You are such a tool sometimes.

If you understand nothing about something just shut up.

 

[Karmawave]

You are such a tool sometimes.

If you understand nothing about something just shut up.

That's the thing, I understand just about everything there is to know about backing, laying, hedging, bookmaking and odds trading and know first hand people who make a professional living from punting.

The person who put $50K on a team before a ball was kicked getting worse odds with a 16 team race than he could not get in an 8 team race, is the tool, not me ( especially given the bet was with the TAB of all possible agencies ). Now if they have since laid against the Knights, well they might be gauranteed a profit either way win or lose. As Apey set, hedge the bet.

But good luck to them. Professional punters with any sense don't bet with the TAB. Its more often than not the worst odds available! The only professionals who usually bet with the TAB are bookmakers who trade off large bets by betting with the tote on various racing codes. The TAB is there for the everyday mug punter to lose.

Maybe it was your 50K Baron?

 

[Baron Vo Mandor]

LOL I wish I had $50k to blow like that! Thats well out of my league I am afraid.

However at the start of the year at the odds they were getting and how it seemed we had momentum on our side from a strong finish in 08 it really wasnt that badder bet.

And hell if we hadn't of had the whole B Smith bullsh*t, I have no doubt we were a top 3 side!

 

[Karmawave]

A pro punter I know is guaranteed to profit no matter who wins the NRL comp, just from backing and laying all the top 8 teams at various times during the season at various odds.

He isn't even an NRL fan as such, but takes advantage of the reactive odds changes that occur from a teams one poor loss or one big win etc.

His worst profit ( not sure if any profit should be termed worse ) - his SMALLEST profit is a Dragons win, and his highest profit is actually the Broncos followed by Knights.

 

[Baron Vo Mandor]

Fair enough, I wish the punter the best of luck for obvious reasons.

 

[Karmawave]

Fair enough, I wish the punter the best of luck for obvious reasons.

Oh me too.

Good luck to the punter for sure. I couldn't imagine having a 50K bet go for 6 months with the highs and lows the Knights have had this year. You'd have a stomach ulcer.

Its highly likely though, the 50K to the punter is probably the equivalent of $100 to the rest of us.

Either that, or its ill gotten gains. :lol:

 

[Baron Vo Mandor]

I cant have a multi that goes over night without tossing and turning and thats for no more then a $200 investment I can only imagine a $50k bet over a season.

I'd have a nervous breakdown by the end.

 

[hugzy]

haha karma knows his stuff

ok heres HuGzy's version of Moron's Guide to Making a Buck

a prudent punter would put say... (for easier calculations) $1 on 3 teams he thinks that might get the spoon. theres simply not enough value for any teams at the start of the season (saints were $17-1 and that was not juicy enough). for me it was broncos, sharks and eels.

broncos was paying $30, sharks $25, eels $7

so $1 on both broncos and sharks at round 1 and wait for eels to fluctuate

by round 11, ur sharks bet would look the goods and u just hold it until about rd 16 when there was an obvious 3 way race (eels, roosters and sharks).

i think eels were paying $5-1, roosters $2, sharks $2.50 or something

so now u put $5 on eels ($25) and $10 on roosters ($20). (u already have $1 on sharks at 25-1)

so u've spent $17 ($1 on sharks, $1 on broncos, $10 on roosters and $5 on eels)

the MINIMUM u'll win is $3 - if the roosters get the spoon (which unfortunately they did - but i enjoyed it nevertheless)

the max u'll win is $8, either eels or sharks getting the spoon

risk? 0% once u choose the right horse at the start.

last year i chose cowboys and that was pretty good until the bardogs decided to do wat they do best


HuGzy's early tip for next year's spoon:
Tigres
Titans - ur banking on a Prince ACL
Penrith - wont have any value
Brisbane - ur banking on a lockyer ACL

i'd put ur money on Titans and Broncos if either is $25-1 or above. wait for penrith to win a couple then capitulate.

 

[boltsy]

Hugzy what price Lockyer or Prince to do ACL??

 

[Spot On]

So, what are the right odds for the Knights in everyone's opinion? When would you put your $$$$$$$ down?? I'm happy to have an interest at $34.

 

[Baron Vo Mandor]

ATM its an 8 horse race, I think $21 is about right to be honest.

 

[Karmawave]

ATM its an 8 horse race, I think $21 is about right to be honest.

I think $21 is unders big time.


If a person was to multi bet the Knights to win every game from here on using their game to game match odds, your multi total price would be paying more than $21.

And that's essentially what the Knights need to do from 7th spot. Face knock out at every week.

$34 would be more like it. And really, the Eels should not be far off that price either. They are huge unders as well.

Its virtually impossible for 7th and 8th to push for a title.

In the end, before the Penrith game last week, you could have got the Knights at $34 then - and that was with the tight arse TAB. So if you thought the Knights were going to beat Penrith, they're in no different position really now than they were at the start of last weeks game - and yet the odds now are much less.

 

[Hanscholo]

It was the players...