75% chance of a coach winning in his first year in 2012

[BranVan3000]

Amazing that 3 of the 4 remaining have only been coaching their teams for this year and two are rookies. When is the last time a brand new coach won it all? Ricky Stuart was it?

In fact new coaches seem to rarely even feature in GFs, but it's a guarantee this year

 

[1 Eyed TEZZA]

Amazing that 3 of the 4 remaining have only been coaching their teams for this year and two are rookies. When is the last time a brand new coach won it all? Ricky Stuart was it?

In fact new coaches seem to rarely even feature in GFs, but it's a guarantee this year

Yes Stuart and the year before that, Hagan?

 

[umina panther]

I can't count Hagan. The whole gameplan was let Joey run things

 

[1 Eyed TEZZA]

I can't count Hagan. The whole gameplan was let Joey run things

Smart game plan. It worked.

 

[clarency]

I wouldn't call MaGuire rookie.

 

[skeepe]

Amazing that 3 of the 4 remaining have only been coaching their teams for this year and two are rookies. When is the last time a brand new coach won it all? Ricky Stuart was it?

In fact new coaches seem to rarely even feature in GFs, but it's a guarantee this year

There is only one rookie.

 

[Red Bear]

I can't count Hagan. The whole gameplan was let Joey run things

Not to mention the forward pack was and general side was set up by Warren Ryan.

The manner in which that side was allowed to decline under Hagan was pretty disgraceful and Newcastle have struggled to recover from that (along with, obviously, the loss of Johns, but Johns loss was magnified by the reliance on him created by Hagan).

 

[Evil_Mush]

There is only one rookie.

Obviously he means rookie in the sense of this being the first year of coaching (as a head coach) at NRL level. Rookie doesn't always mean untrained.

Ill semantics yo.

 

[BunniesMan]

"Rookie NRL coach" to satisfy the whingers. 2 rookies and then there's Hasler trying to do something that has never been done before. 2 consecutive premierships with different clubs.

 

[muzby]

Amazing that 3 of the 4 remaining have only been coaching their teams for this year and two are rookies. When is the last time a brand new coach won it all? Ricky Stuart was it?

In fact new coaches seem to rarely even feature in GFs, but it's a guarantee this year

whilst your assumption is numerically valid, statistically it is incorrect..

the dogs vs souffs game gives a 100% chance of a new coach making it to the grand final, the true percentage will actually be determined on friday night if the storm win (cause if the sea eagles win, it's a 100% chance that the winner will be a new coach).

if it's a storm vs dogs grand final, then the dogs will be favourites (estimating $1.65) which would mean that the odds of them winning would be 71%.

if it's a storm vs souffs game, then based on what we saw in week 1 of the finals, there is a 0% chance of a new coach winning the title.

based on the above three scenarios (storm not winning, storm playing bulldogs, storm playing souffs) when these results are balanced out (100% + 71% + 0%) the true percentage chance of a new coach winning is 57%.


that is all.

 

[bad boy bubby]

I think the more telling stat is that Maguire and Toovey served apprenticeships under Bellamy and Hasler respectively.
You can bet the papers have their headlines ready if it's either Canterbury vs Manly or Melbourne vs Souths in the GF.
"Master vs Apprentice"

 

[Big Sam]

I think the more telling stat is that Maguire and Toovey served apprenticeships under Bellamy and Hasler respectively.
You can bet the papers have their headlines ready if it's either Canterbury vs Manly or Melbourne vs Souths in the GF.
"Master vs Apprentice"

It's fascinating the effect that those two have had on their understudies (Kearney notwithstanding).

Makes me wonder why Bennett's more recent assistant coaches (Henjak, Price) have failed so miserably.

 

[some11]

that is all.

Love your work.

 

[Packy]

Do you really believe that the Dogs would go in as favourites over the Storm if the chips fall that way?

 

[Mr Saab]

Dogs would be favs over the storm in the GF.
Would prob be Dogs 1.75 Storm 1.95 or something like that. I think the Dogs have the Storms number as they match up very well against them....esp in the forwards.
Yes the storm took care of the Souffs forwards, but this is Souffs we are talking about, not the Dogs with Tolman, Graham, Kasiano, Pritchard, Eastwood

 

[jonno_knights]

It's fascinating the effect that those two have had on their understudies (Kearney notwithstanding).

Makes me wonder why Bennett's more recent assistant coaches (Henjak, Price) have failed so miserably.

What about the fact Bellamy was Bennett's understudy?

Griffin has looked quite good, and Henjak wasnt really given much of a chance IMO. He did have a 56% winning record, even if you could use the same case with Lockyer, as Hagan/Johns.

Price is interesting though. They didnt exactly set the world on fire in the back end of 2011 with Bennett there. Need to know what was going on behind closed doors though before making judgement. Was Bennett taking a back step and letting Price take over, or did the quality of the playing squad as a whole just fall off a cliff.

 

[t-ba]

Tooves was, funnily enough, considered to be the long term solution for Manly's coaching staff. I don't think anyone really expected Hasler to turn out to be as good as he was. Or as complete a bastard.

 

[Springs]

I can't count Hagan. The whole gameplan was let Joey run things

Replace Joey with Freddy and that was pretty much Stuart's gameplan. The way in which the Roosters declined after 2004 was remarkable.

 

[CJG 182]

Clearly it is 50/50 as either a rookie coach will win... or a rookie coach won't win...:sarcasm:












:lol:

 

[CliffyIsGod]

Tooves was, funnily enough, considered to be the long term solution for Manly's coaching staff. I don't think anyone really expected Hasler to turn out to be as good as he was. Or as complete a bastard.

And Des always said he wasn't a career coach. Another stupid claim by the man.