A simple equation....

[SpaceMonkey]

...We win our last 3 games, and we get a home semi. Given the fact that we play both the Dragon and Cowboys in the final rounds, winning those matches will mean we will at least leapfrog the Dragons and finish on equal points with the Cows, and as our differential is currently 30 points better than theirs that will in all likelihood put us ahead of them. No sweating on other results, finals football will be played at Mt Smart in week one if we're good enough...

 

[Meth]

Dragons are seriously due. When was the last time they lost 5 in a row. And they're playing the Storm next. If we can beat them, it will be awesome for our chances of finishing much higher up on the ladder.

The Panthers are a bit of a mystery really.

 

[devoid]

If we win our last 3 games, the Tigers could still overtake us - their run home is a gentle one. I know it's not probable, but it is possible. The thing I like about us right now, is that we look like we're only just beginning to build.

 

[The European Polynesian]

It's going to be log jam central. If we don't finish 4th we will finish 7th IMO.

 

[Scott]

Dragons are seriously due. When was the last time they lost 5 in a row. And they're playing the Storm next. If we can beat them, it will be awesome for our chances of finishing much higher up on the ladder.

The Panthers are a bit of a mystery really.

This.
Penrith are always tough there on a sat night. Key game.

Dragons - somethings gone wrong, they have nothing anymore.

 

[Jesbass]

If we win our last 3 games, the Tigers could still overtake us - their run home is a gentle one. I know it's not probable, but it is possible. The thing I like about us right now, is that we look like we're only just beginning to build.

This. I actually expect the Tigers to overtake us.

Plus we still have to beat the Panthers in Penrith, who will be out to impress their new boss...

 

[devoid]

Plus we still have to beat the Panthers in Penrith, who will be out to impress their new boss...

...and their new signing. :sarcasm:

 

[Penrose Warrior]

This. I actually expect the Tigers to overtake us.

Plus we still have to beat the Panthers in Penrith, who will be out to impress their new boss...

Hopefully their injury concerns don't improve before then, and 2,000 extra people there due to Jennings' love of a pint don't make a difference.

I reckon the Tigers will drop one, they're not the type of side to string together 6 in a row. Eels to get them next week.

 

[Jesbass]

...and their new signing. :sarcasm:

:lol:

 

[SpaceMonkey]

This. I actually expect the Tigers to overtake us.

If we win our last 3 games, the Tigers could still overtake us - their run home is a gentle one. I know it's not probable, but it is possible. The thing I like about us right now, is that we look like we're only just beginning to build.

If we win our last three the Tigers in all likelyhood still won't overtake us- we have a 56 point head start on points differential compared to them, meaning they have to win each of those games by 19 points more than we win our last three to get past us. It's technically possible, but highly unlikely.

As I said the key is simple- win all three and top 4 pretty much takes care of itself. Thats all the team should be thinking about, winning. Last week they looked like they were trying too hard to pile on the points from the kick-off, they should just play patiently and build a platform.

 

[Jesbass]

If we win our last three the Tigers in all likelyhood still won't overtake us- we have a 56 point head start on points differential compared to them, meaning they have to win each of those games by 19 points more than we win our last three to get past us. It's technically possible, but highly unlikely.

As I said the key is simple- win all three and top 4 pretty much takes care of itself. Thats all the team should be thinking about, winning. Last week they looked like they were trying too hard to pile on the points from the kick-off, they should just play patiently and build a platform.

I don't see it as hughly unlikely, though.

I wouldn't be shocked if the Tigers had an average of 19 points more in their winning margins over the Eels, Titans and Sharks than we manage against the Panthers, Dragons and Cowboys.

I hope I'm wrong, though.

 

[ozbash]

Thats all the team should be thinking about, winning. Last week they looked like they were trying too hard to pile on the points from the kick-off, they should just play patiently and build a platform.

Saturday night was a good example of patience.

I'm quietly confident I'll be whinging about prices for the home semi...

 

[SpaceMonkey]

Saturday night was a good example of patience.

Not in the first half it wasn't. We buggered up 3 or 4 chances by pushing it too hard.

 

[Penrose Warrior]

It was a good example of inpatience, which I'm sure the ever-knowledgeable Oz meant.

 

[hitman82]

We have a habit of choking when opportunities like the top 4 come up.

 

[Penrose Warrior]

When?

Last year we won four of our last five to finish 5th.
2008 we were in the 8 for a grand total of 3 weeks of the season. 8th.
2007 we won 9 of our last 12 to finish fourth (home semi)
2003 we won our last three, finished 6th.

Sorry to pick holes in your comment...but it's pretty far wide of the mark. In fact, if anything, we're the opposite.

 

[hitman82]

^ Oh nah you misunderstood my vague comment. I was referring to choking during the general season, nothing at all to do with late charges. Every time the top of table or jumping into the 4, or even stringing record wins together, comment comes up in the media, we throw it all away with a crappy performance, usually at home in front of a hopeful crowd who inevitably leave disappointed.

But thanks for the stats anyway

 

[Penrose Warrior]

Haha, I researched it to put my own mind at rest that we aren't chokers.

In our good years (I discredited the rabbles of 2009, 2004/05 etc) we've got a bloody good end of season record.

 

[hitman82]

Indeed we do. We're good finishers! Sadly we are also finals chokers... can dissect that too if you like but I suspect you won't like the outcome! Haha

But hey, we certainly look mentally tough at the moment. Regularly coming from behind to run teams down, and the goal line defense is solid, and scrambling defense is tenacious.

 

[broncos2010]

you probably don't want to finish 6th as you will play broncos and we know that is a one way road to you know where....