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AFL 2004 - Round 4

CyberKev

Moderator
Staff member
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2,323
Well, I'm ambling along on 17/24, which is hardly awe-inspiring, but could certainly have been a lot worse...


FRIDAY APRIL 16 AEST
Carlton (10) vs Essendon
MCG 7:40 PM AEST

SATURDAY APRIL 17 AEST
Melbourne vs Port Adelaide (24)
MCG 2:10 PM AEST

West Coast Eagles (21)vs Brisbane Lions
Subiaco Oval 2:10 PM AWST

Geelong vs Richmond (4)
Telstra Dome 7:10 PM AEST

Adelaide (17) vs St Kilda
AAMI Stadium 7:10 PM ACST

SUNDAY APRIL 18 AEST
Kangaroos (12) vs Sydney Swans
Manuka Oval 1:10 PM AEST

Collingwood (30) vs Fremantle
Telstra Dome 2:10 PM AEST

Hawthorn (18) vs Western Bulldogs
MCG 2:10 PM AEST

I pick Hawthorn with the barest minimum of confidence, and the Bulldogs would well fancy their chances here. The Hawks were disgraceful last week and, despite remaining winless, the Hounds have been strongly competitive every week. That being said, Hawthorn still has the stronger side, and can belie abysmal form by going off like a sparkler unexpectedly.

The same is true of Richmond, and I suspect that Geelong will draw a lot of support in the betting going into this game. I'm still suitably respectful of the Richmond midfield, however, and at its best this side will outgun anything the Cats can throw at them.

Melbourne vs Port will be an intiguing contest, given that the Demons comfortably accounted for the Power at this venue last year. I'm willing to punt that the result was a fluke, and if there's one side you can confidently back away from home during the season proper, its Port.

I'm expecting Carlton to roll the Bombers, with the latter being indifferent at best this season. Essendon was lucky to strike the Eagles in such a generous mood, and were outplayed for much of the match, despite getting the points. Carlton are workmanlike, but they're better than many expected, and always seem to trouble the Bombers, regardless of respective ladder positions. The Blues are more than a match for the overrated Bombers across the paddock and should be able to do enough here.

Tipping against Brisbane is always fraught with danger, but they were well beaten by the Eagles in both encounters last season. The Eagles have played some good football, but can ill-afford to give any side 5-8 goal head starts, especially Brisbane. I expect them to start stronger this time around, and they have the cattle to test Brisbane, particularly at home.

St Kilda have been unsettled this week due to tribunal decisions and marked media attention, which leaves them vulnerable to a desperate Adelaide side seeking its first win for the year. And Collingwood should be able to rebound over Fremantle, although this will depend largely on the latter side's capacity for getting its forward structure firing.

In the final game, I expect the Kangaroos to exploit their intimate knowledge of Manuka Oval and keep their unblemished beginning to the season intact. The Swans are a solid side, but they can tend to look a bit ho-hum, and will find this a very tough assignment. One thing's for sure, even if they do lose the game, the Swans will clearly win when it comes to supporter turnout on the day.


CyberKev
 

Melstar

Juniors
Messages
2,396
more crap tipping from mel...

Carlton
Port Adelaide
Lions
Richmond
St Kilda
Swans
Collingwood
Hawthorn
 

Beaussie

First Grade
Messages
6,021
Carlton vs Essendon
Melbourne vs Port Adelaide
West Coast Eagles vs Brisbane Lions
Geelong vs Richmond
Adelaide vs St Kilda
Kangaroos vs Sydney Swans
Collingwood vs Fremantle
Hawthorn vs Western Bulldogs

By the way, does anyone know how we are all going?
 

Mr Angry

Not a Referee
Messages
51,816
Thanx CK,
Great work, yet again.
Carlton's improvement will please my bro-in-law no end.
Still early days.
 

JTR

Juniors
Messages
984
Carlton vs Essendon - tipped the Bombers
-------------------------
Melbourne vs Port Adelaide
West Coast Eagles vs Brisbane Lions
Geelong vs Richmond
Adelaide vs St Kilda
Kangaroos vs Sydney Swans
Collingwood vs Fremantle
Hawthorn vs Western Bulldogs
 

AuckMel

Bench
Messages
2,959
Tipped the Bombers too, and 3 points off the margin.
Port
Tigers
Adelaide
Kangas
Pies
Hawks
 

meltiger

First Grade
Messages
6,268
AuckMel said:
Tipped the Bombers too, and 3 points off the margin.

Same, went with a margin of 40.

Just gonna copy my tips off the Tipstar thing lol

Port Adelaide
West Coast
Richmond
St Kilda
Sydney
Collingwood
Hawthorn

The last two are danger games for two teams who will surely feature in September.
 

meltiger

First Grade
Messages
6,268
CyberKev said:
Well, I'm ambling along on 17/24, which is hardly awe-inspiring, but could certainly have been a lot worse...

15 for me mate :( 3 in Round 2 has really screwed me around.
 

CyberKev

Moderator
Staff member
Messages
2,323
meltiger said:
AuckMel said:
Tipped the Bombers too, and 3 points off the margin.

Same, went with a margin of 40.

Just gonna copy my tips off the Tipstar thing lol

Port Adelaide
West Coast
Richmond
St Kilda
Sydney
Collingwood
Hawthorn

The last two are danger games for two teams who will surely feature in September.

I wouldn't consider either of them as September certainties...

Collingwood are finally getting brought back to the pack through a poor injury run, and while they still should make it, I wouldn't be surprised not to see them around come September.

Hawthorn are even more precariously placed. I doubt they'll be the only side to get smacked-up by Port this season, but even allowing for the obvious strength of the opposition, they were poor last week. They're no sure thing to win this game, and with a certain loss looming at the Gabbatoir next weekend, they could well be a disastrous 1-4 and chasing shadows for a third successive season.

CyberKev
 
Messages
635
My very late tips:

Richmond
St Kilda
Sydney
Collingwood
Hawthorn

Would've gone for Essendon and West Coast (I knew the Lions would lose this one although they went down by 3 points) and Port (who would have thought they'd be crushed by over 50 points by the Demons) in the completed games.
 

meltiger

First Grade
Messages
6,268
CyberKev said:
Hawthorn could well be a disastrous 1-4 and chasing shadows for a third successive season.

You have Richmond on two weeks my friend and too be quite frank after the pitiful, disgusting effort those pretend footballers served up on Saturday night, I'd say the Hawks would be looking to that game as a certain percentage booster.

For the first time in my life I booed them off the ground :( They don't deserve number of fans they have.

If more than 15,000 show up to see us hand Adelaide their first win of the season on Friday night I'd be bloody shocked.

If they keep serving up that shit week in, week out they won't even get close to challenging for 15th on the ladder.

How a bunch of drunken pissheads with no history of success like St Kilda can rebuild their club in the manner they have whilst a great club like Richmond cannot be competitive for more than two seasons in 20 is beyond me.

The one saving grace is Miller, hopefully he doesn't bow to the pressure and get rid of Frawley and expect things to change. Players need to go at the end of the season as well and at least 3 of them from the leadership group.

I do think the bag on Ottens though "Yet to take a game ny the scruff of the neck and dominate' is a tad unfair.... The man has flogged three of four opponents in the ruck this year and his only blemish was Jeff White's best game in 3 years. You can only do so much in winning the hitouts, if your gutless midfield can't clear the ball out it's hardly the ruckmans fault.
 

meltiger

First Grade
Messages
6,268
Up the mighty Phins said:
I wonder if Eddie will blame the Lions or Leigh Matthews on the Magpies' big loss to Freo on the weekend?

Nope just the advantage they have over the rest of the comp.

With the Lions extra money Richmond could have held onto Benny Holland and our backline wouldn't be as impotent as it is now.

Brisbane will continue to win premierships whilever they are treated differently to everyone else.
 

CyberKev

Moderator
Staff member
Messages
2,323
meltiger said:
Up the mighty Phins said:
I wonder if Eddie will blame the Lions or Leigh Matthews on the Magpies' big loss to Freo on the weekend?

Nope just the advantage they have over the rest of the comp.

With the Lions extra money Richmond could have held onto Benny Holland and our backline wouldn't be as impotent as it is now.

Brisbane will continue to win premierships whilever they are treated differently to everyone else.

I agree...

The difference essentially equates to two top line players, and I know Hawthorn would like an extra gun midfielder and star forward right about now.

I'm happy for the AFL to direct extra dollars to Brisbane, but it should be being used for promoting the game in QLD outside of the confines of the club, not for paying extra to players.

CyberKev
 

CyberKev

Moderator
Staff member
Messages
2,323
meltiger said:
You have Richmond on two weeks my friend and too be quite frank after the pitiful, disgusting effort those pretend footballers served up on Saturday night, I'd say the Hawks would be looking to that game as a certain percentage booster.

Bwahahahaha :p :D :lol: :)

Right here, right now, Hawthorn is the worst side in the entire competition and on current form could not hope to beat any of the other 15 sides in the league!

Richmond have their woes, but barring a major form transformation will win the game comfortably.

I've stated before that Richmond have a weakness down back, But Hawthorn's forward setup is a shambolic embarassment and couldn't hope to exploit this deficiency.

The Tiger top midfield rotation is also clearly better than Hawthorn's, to say nothing of the fact that Kane Johnson routinely kocks-up a million possessions whenever he plays us :(

Add to that the vulnerability of our defence with Hay still missing and Jacobs now to miss 3 games, and it should be a feast for the Tiger forwards.

Essentially, Hawthorn has had one winner to this point in the season - Joel Smith. Everitt, Mitchell, Jacobs & Hodge have all tried hard, but Smith is the only one who consistently shines in the side of late.

Brisbane is going to destroy us and everything we've ever loved this weekend and the remaining remnants of the squad will be easy pickings for the grateful Tigers a week later...

CyberKev
 
Messages
635
meltiger said:
Up the mighty Phins said:
I wonder if Eddie will blame the Lions or Leigh Matthews on the Magpies' big loss to Freo on the weekend?

Nope just the advantage they have over the rest of the comp.

With the Lions extra money Richmond could have held onto Benny Holland and our backline wouldn't be as impotent as it is now.

Brisbane will continue to win premierships whilever they are treated differently to everyone else.

I don't disagree with what you say (let's not forget Sydney as well who has a larger concession than Brisbane), mel. Every club should have the same salary cap size.

However, Eddie's constant snipes at the club is a bit monotonous.
 

CyberKev

Moderator
Staff member
Messages
2,323
Up the mighty Phins said:
I don't disagree with what you say (let's not forget Sydney as well who has a larger concession than Brisbane), mel. Every club should have the same salary cap size.

However, Eddie's constant snipes at the club is a bit monotonous.

True, but the difference here is that Sydney's extra allotment is based on the harsh reality that the cost of living in Sydney is higher than it is elsewhere, and that higher wages need to be paid to reflect this.

Brisbane's, by way of contrast, is based on the assumption that higher payments are required to stop players leaving to join clubs in the AFL-friendly states.

I think this assumption, as it pertains to Brisbane, is a bit overstated. The Lions have developed quite a professional structure, Brisbane is a great place to live (and it is predicted that it will overtake Melbourne as Australia's 2nd biggest city), and few players wouldn't kill for the chance to play under Leigh Matthews.

From a Hawthorn perspective, we've lost more than our fair share of players in recent times to WA & SA clubs. Its as unlikely in our case, as it would be for Brisbane, that some extra dollars would have been enough to prevent these "homesick" types from flocking-off!

At any rate, from what I can gather, the extra Brisbane bucks aren't necessarily targeted at these "at risk" players, but are essentially just spread across the playing list as the club sees fit. Its hardly surprising that other clubs should be aggrieved by this, particularly when the club receiving the gift dollars is winning flag upon flag.

I agree that Eddie's moanings can become tiresome, but as President of a large Melbourne club he obviously feels that by maintaining silence on the issue, he would be perceived of as weak and compliant by the massive Collingwood fan base.

Again, I'm happy enough for extra dollars to be flowing North and would happily give them more still, but only for activities that further promote and develop the game (outside of the Lions club) in QLD. The code has a lot of ground to make up on RL in QLD and Brisbane's longterm future would be helped no end if the y could develop a feeder competition that was strong and deep enoughto service the majority of their recruitment needs.

CyberKev
 

meltiger

First Grade
Messages
6,268
CyberKev said:
Up the mighty Phins said:
I don't disagree with what you say (let's not forget Sydney as well who has a larger concession than Brisbane), mel. Every club should have the same salary cap size.

However, Eddie's constant snipes at the club is a bit monotonous.

True, but the difference here is that Sydney's extra allotment is based on the harsh reality that the cost of living in Sydney is higher than it is elsewhere, and that higher wages need to be paid to reflect this.

Brisbane's, by way of contrast, is based on the assumption that higher payments are required to stop players leaving to join clubs in the AFL-friendly states.

I think this assumption, as it pertains to Brisbane, is a bit overstated. The Lions have developed quite a professional structure, Brisbane is a great place to live (and it is predicted that it will overtake Melbourne as Australia's 2nd biggest city), and few players wouldn't kill for the chance to play under Leigh Matthews.

From a Hawthorn perspective, we've lost more than our fair share of players in recent times to WA & SA clubs. Its as unlikely in our case, as it would be for Brisbane, that some extra dollars would have been enough to prevent these "homesick" types from flocking-off!

At any rate, from what I can gather, the extra Brisbane bucks aren't necessarily targeted at these "at risk" players, but are essentially just spread across the playing list as the club sees fit. Its hardly surprising that other clubs should be aggrieved by this, particularly when the club receiving the gift dollars is winning flag upon flag.

I agree that Eddie's moanings can become tiresome, but as President of a large Melbourne club he obviously feels that by maintaining silence on the issue, he would be perceived of as weak and compliant by the massive Collingwood fan base.

Again, I'm happy enough for extra dollars to be flowing North and would happily give them more still, but only for activities that further promote and develop the game (outside of the Lions club) in QLD. The code has a lot of ground to make up on RL in QLD and Brisbane's longterm future would be helped no end if the y could develop a feeder competition that was strong and deep enoughto service the majority of their recruitment needs.

CyberKev

Agreed 110% mate and the first statement is why I won't bag Sydney's concessions.

When I was living in Sydney, Brook & I were paying 220 a week for a two bedroom flat out in Parramatta. From next month Tam and I will be paying 120 a week for a two bedroom unit which is a 2 minute walk from the beach and of similar size to the place Brook and I had with a backyard (Small but it exists) & it takes about 15 minutes less to get an all stations train to the city than a Redfern/Strathfield/Granville/Parramatta express took.

So essentially we were paying pretty much virtually double in Sydney and that was just for rent. The living costs up there are sensationally high compared to Melbourne and certainly compared to Brisbane/Adelaide/Perth.

& in reality, why would a player leave a team that has won 3 premierships in a row and only has one viable option standing in their way (There is not a team that can legitimately match up on St Kilda atm)for the record-equalling 4th on the trot? Especially when as you said, you get to learn from Lethal, arguably the greatest player in history and clearly one of the best coaches of the last 30 years (Look at his strike rate compared to Sheedy and the resources Sheedy has had at his disposal).

We need to as you said, throw the money into grassroots development. The players have already shown over the last two years they will take pay cuts to keep the club together.
 

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