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Brisbane Lions v St Kilda (Gabba - Thurs Night)
Brisbane holds a slender 3-2 lead in recent head-to-head clashes between these sides, with their last meeting resulting in a narrow 6 point preliminary final win for the Lions.
I'm expecting St Kilda to square this recent ledger, but they may not do so as easily as one would anticipate. Brisbane is still finding its feet after the retirements of some key players over the summer, and will be without key players Brown, Black & Lappin for this tough first-up assignment with the exciting Saints outfit. As a consequence, the side looks less intimidating up forward than it has in recent seasons, and considerably less daunting a prospect out of the centre.
St Kilda has looked indifferent over the preseason, and I remain as unconvinced as ever by the make-up of the team's defence. Nonetheless, messers Hayes, Del Santo, Ball & Harvey should appreciate the extra space and opportunity afforded by the anaemic looking Lion centre contingent; and the Saints forward structure looks as threatening as ever, with its tall, mobile key targets and diversity of scoring options. Catching an undermanned Brisbane at home in round 1 is too good an opportunity for the Saints to pass over, and if the side is to be a genuine flag threat in 2005 it should get the points here.
St Kilda by 19 pts
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Kangaroos v Carlton (Telstra Dome - Sat Aft)
The Kangaroos also hold a slender 3-2 lead in past clashes between these sides, and while this game looms as arguably the most difficult to tip for this round, I've decided to opt for the Blues.
Both of these sides strike me as middle of the table teams, but Carlton's confident preseason preparation leaves it better placed for this contest. Carlton's success, to this point, has been predicated on the repeatedly strong showings put forward by their two key forwards, and it is doubtful that the Roos have the defensive options to keep them subdued for a full four quarters. The Kangaroos had a mixed preseason, and looked most impressive in disposing of Geelong in dismal conditions in Canberra. Laidley would dearly love similar conditions here, but alas its always dry and still under the Telstra roof.
Carlton by 6 pts
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Melbourne v Essendon (MCG - Sat Night)
The last time these sides met they played out a dramatic five point final thriller. The match went Essendon's way and delivered them a 4-1 recent winning record over the Demons. The Bombers were very lucky to get up that day, but won't be so fortunate this time around.
Kevin Sheedy was in the media today bemoaning the lack of respect shown by scribes to his side, with many predicting a hard year ahead for the red & blacks. Its hardly the scribes fault that Essendon looks tired, predictable and lacking for genuinely exciting young talent. I wouldn't read too much into Essendon's dismal preseason form (they regularly put up second string sides), but the side will sorely miss Matthew Lloyd this weekend. Lloyd's absence drops the side's effectiveness considerably, and shows up the deficiencies inherent in the Bomber midfield (which is surely the weakest in the competition).
Melbourne will be hungry for revenge, but won't take their wounded opposition lightly. At times in that fateful final the Melbourne midfield, with pace and enterprise, made the Essendon side look disturbingly pedestrian. I'm still flummoxed as to how the Demons ended up losing it??!! A snappier start by the Demons this time around should ensure that even a superhuman effort from old man Hird won't save Essendon from a heavy defeat.
Melbourne by 45 pts
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Fremantle v Port Adelaide (Subiaco - Sat Night)
Port Adelaide starts out its premiership defence against Fremantle in Perth, a side that the Power holds a 4-1 recent winning record over. This should be a match worth watching, but I wouldn't expect Fremantle to improve on this deficit here.
The Dockers are a very tough proposition on home turf, but unless they've improved their game plan markedly over the summer, I can't see them beating a side of this quality. Their midfield is strong and will give plenty of run and their defence has a few of the better defenders in the competition, but this tends to count for squat when Coach Connolly preaches a preference for short and wide ball usage.
The Power, even allowing for the side's tendency for starting a season slowly, will punish the inevitable turnovers that accompany Freo's overcooking of the footy. I'd expect Port to be a little offkey with their normally exquisite disposal, but they're good enough to get away with early largesse. Regardless of the result it will be interesting to see how Primus fares back from injury, and how Josh Carr travels in his first game against his old side.
Port Adelaide by 15pts
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Sydney vs Hawthorn (Sydney - Sun Aft)
It would surprise most to know that Hawthorn has won 4 of the past five clashes between these sides, with only a very unlucky 1 pt loss last year at this venue breaking that winning sequence. Hawthorn has few admirers at this time, but may pick-up a few when they extend that record to five wins from the past six.
Sydney has had a beastly preseason and will be missing key players Shauble, O'Loughlin and (most likely) Saddington for this clash. The side will clearly be a little short in defence, and will have to rely even more than usual on the dash and daring provided by the sadly underrated Leo Barry. The Hawk defence will be kept busy with Barry Hall, this is for sure, although he hasn't really produced a lot against Hawthorn in the past, and the hawk defence is quite strong by overall AFL standards.
Not so the Hawk midfield, where Crawford will be make a welcome return, but Mitchell will be sorely missed. Clarkson will most likely move Smith to the midfield (as he has suggested doing at times this season) and he will certainly go well out of the middle. Where I expect the game to be won, however, will be in the much maligned Hawk forward fifty. If Clarkson runs with Everitt, Barker & Franklin as tall marking forwards he will catch Sydney all too vulnerable down back.
Hawthorn by 14pts
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Richmond v Geelong (MCG - Sun Aft)
A rejuvenated Geelong holds a convincing 5-0 recent record against Richmond, and given the clear difference in strength between the clubs, will almost certainly make it 6-0 on Sunday.
The Tigers have generated plenty of enthusiasm over the summer and will be more competitive against the Cats, but will lack the firepower and stamina to get the points. The Richmond defence rates among the weakest two in the competition and will be hard pressed holding the Cat pairing of Kingsley & Ottens, particularly the latter. Gaspar is truly ghastly these days and would have been retired over the summer if the side had better options available, and Bowden lacks the accountability required for a CHB role. I'd toss ex-Hawk Graham at Ottens, as he'll give it everything and probably do the best stopping job.
The Cats, by way of contrast, have arguably the best defence in the competition and, Richardson aside, the Tiger attack doesn't pose too many fears for Scarlett, Harley and Co. Richmond has no chance if Richardson doesn't play a blinder here, and while he should perform solidly, I can't see him being a matchwinner. Richmond does have some capable midfielders, but the unsung Geelong centreline will run them around and eventually into the ground. Geelong play a very accountable and physical brand of football, and Richmond still needs a lot of work to be able to counter this effectively.
Geelong by 33pts
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Adelaide v West Coast (AAMI Stadium - Sun Aft)
Adelaide holds a 3-2 recent winning record over West Coast and, astonishingly, has n ot lost to the Eagles at home since Round 10, 1996! They've only ever lost twice to the Eagles at AAMI, which probably explains why Eagles fans are a tad more nervous than you'd expect them to be for this game. They needn't be too worried, as it'll be a case of good things come in threes come Sunday evening.
Adelaide are heading for a long, miserable season. Their once imperious midfield has been largely dismantled, their defence rivals Richmond's as the poorest in the game, and their attack carries little venom. If it wasn't for the depth of their ruck options and the presence of midfield dynamos: Riccuitto, McLeod & Goodwin the Crows would seem a lost cause. Minimalist list or not, they will still win enough games at home to avoid the wooden spoon.
West Coast will do enough to make sure this game isn't one of them though. The Eagles od struggle away from home, but will surely be pumped to get away to a confidence boosting flyer here. If West Coast wants to be considered a genuine premiership threat it simply has to win games like these. Given its current confidence and the depth and pace of its midfield, it should have enough talent to carry the day.
West Coast by 26pts
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Collingwood v Western Bulldogs (MCG - Mon Aft)
Collingwood is 4-1 ahead on recent encounters, which may explain the overconfidence apprent in many of its fans leading up to Monday's season opener. I think that this confidence is misplaced and that the Bulldogs will get off to the winning start here.
Collingwood has convinced itself that 2004 was an abberation, but I feel it was close to the truth. The side looks tired, slow, limited for talent across the park and devoid of fresh options. They can ill-afford to be without Josh Fraser for the first half of the year, particularly when Buckley has had a disjointed preseason and is struggling back from injury. To make matters worse, the defence that stood so strong across 2002-03 has developed the shakes and is being shown-up for sound key back capacity.
Western Bulldogs are still a dodgy prospect, and I'd feel more comfortable if Johnson was in the side. Still, they will be eager to impress for their first big game under Eade and I'm expecting their quality young midfield contingent to sizzle this year. Western should have fared better last year, and threw away several wins through set kicking that was too awful to be true for AFL level. No doubt they have worked hard on this, and providing the young midfield gets an even share of the ball, I think they'll do enough to win.
Western Bulldogs by 10pts
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And that's all I've got to say about that...
Brisbane holds a slender 3-2 lead in recent head-to-head clashes between these sides, with their last meeting resulting in a narrow 6 point preliminary final win for the Lions.
I'm expecting St Kilda to square this recent ledger, but they may not do so as easily as one would anticipate. Brisbane is still finding its feet after the retirements of some key players over the summer, and will be without key players Brown, Black & Lappin for this tough first-up assignment with the exciting Saints outfit. As a consequence, the side looks less intimidating up forward than it has in recent seasons, and considerably less daunting a prospect out of the centre.
St Kilda has looked indifferent over the preseason, and I remain as unconvinced as ever by the make-up of the team's defence. Nonetheless, messers Hayes, Del Santo, Ball & Harvey should appreciate the extra space and opportunity afforded by the anaemic looking Lion centre contingent; and the Saints forward structure looks as threatening as ever, with its tall, mobile key targets and diversity of scoring options. Catching an undermanned Brisbane at home in round 1 is too good an opportunity for the Saints to pass over, and if the side is to be a genuine flag threat in 2005 it should get the points here.
St Kilda by 19 pts
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Kangaroos v Carlton (Telstra Dome - Sat Aft)
The Kangaroos also hold a slender 3-2 lead in past clashes between these sides, and while this game looms as arguably the most difficult to tip for this round, I've decided to opt for the Blues.
Both of these sides strike me as middle of the table teams, but Carlton's confident preseason preparation leaves it better placed for this contest. Carlton's success, to this point, has been predicated on the repeatedly strong showings put forward by their two key forwards, and it is doubtful that the Roos have the defensive options to keep them subdued for a full four quarters. The Kangaroos had a mixed preseason, and looked most impressive in disposing of Geelong in dismal conditions in Canberra. Laidley would dearly love similar conditions here, but alas its always dry and still under the Telstra roof.
Carlton by 6 pts
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Melbourne v Essendon (MCG - Sat Night)
The last time these sides met they played out a dramatic five point final thriller. The match went Essendon's way and delivered them a 4-1 recent winning record over the Demons. The Bombers were very lucky to get up that day, but won't be so fortunate this time around.
Kevin Sheedy was in the media today bemoaning the lack of respect shown by scribes to his side, with many predicting a hard year ahead for the red & blacks. Its hardly the scribes fault that Essendon looks tired, predictable and lacking for genuinely exciting young talent. I wouldn't read too much into Essendon's dismal preseason form (they regularly put up second string sides), but the side will sorely miss Matthew Lloyd this weekend. Lloyd's absence drops the side's effectiveness considerably, and shows up the deficiencies inherent in the Bomber midfield (which is surely the weakest in the competition).
Melbourne will be hungry for revenge, but won't take their wounded opposition lightly. At times in that fateful final the Melbourne midfield, with pace and enterprise, made the Essendon side look disturbingly pedestrian. I'm still flummoxed as to how the Demons ended up losing it??!! A snappier start by the Demons this time around should ensure that even a superhuman effort from old man Hird won't save Essendon from a heavy defeat.
Melbourne by 45 pts
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Fremantle v Port Adelaide (Subiaco - Sat Night)
Port Adelaide starts out its premiership defence against Fremantle in Perth, a side that the Power holds a 4-1 recent winning record over. This should be a match worth watching, but I wouldn't expect Fremantle to improve on this deficit here.
The Dockers are a very tough proposition on home turf, but unless they've improved their game plan markedly over the summer, I can't see them beating a side of this quality. Their midfield is strong and will give plenty of run and their defence has a few of the better defenders in the competition, but this tends to count for squat when Coach Connolly preaches a preference for short and wide ball usage.
The Power, even allowing for the side's tendency for starting a season slowly, will punish the inevitable turnovers that accompany Freo's overcooking of the footy. I'd expect Port to be a little offkey with their normally exquisite disposal, but they're good enough to get away with early largesse. Regardless of the result it will be interesting to see how Primus fares back from injury, and how Josh Carr travels in his first game against his old side.
Port Adelaide by 15pts
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Sydney vs Hawthorn (Sydney - Sun Aft)
It would surprise most to know that Hawthorn has won 4 of the past five clashes between these sides, with only a very unlucky 1 pt loss last year at this venue breaking that winning sequence. Hawthorn has few admirers at this time, but may pick-up a few when they extend that record to five wins from the past six.
Sydney has had a beastly preseason and will be missing key players Shauble, O'Loughlin and (most likely) Saddington for this clash. The side will clearly be a little short in defence, and will have to rely even more than usual on the dash and daring provided by the sadly underrated Leo Barry. The Hawk defence will be kept busy with Barry Hall, this is for sure, although he hasn't really produced a lot against Hawthorn in the past, and the hawk defence is quite strong by overall AFL standards.
Not so the Hawk midfield, where Crawford will be make a welcome return, but Mitchell will be sorely missed. Clarkson will most likely move Smith to the midfield (as he has suggested doing at times this season) and he will certainly go well out of the middle. Where I expect the game to be won, however, will be in the much maligned Hawk forward fifty. If Clarkson runs with Everitt, Barker & Franklin as tall marking forwards he will catch Sydney all too vulnerable down back.
Hawthorn by 14pts
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Richmond v Geelong (MCG - Sun Aft)
A rejuvenated Geelong holds a convincing 5-0 recent record against Richmond, and given the clear difference in strength between the clubs, will almost certainly make it 6-0 on Sunday.
The Tigers have generated plenty of enthusiasm over the summer and will be more competitive against the Cats, but will lack the firepower and stamina to get the points. The Richmond defence rates among the weakest two in the competition and will be hard pressed holding the Cat pairing of Kingsley & Ottens, particularly the latter. Gaspar is truly ghastly these days and would have been retired over the summer if the side had better options available, and Bowden lacks the accountability required for a CHB role. I'd toss ex-Hawk Graham at Ottens, as he'll give it everything and probably do the best stopping job.
The Cats, by way of contrast, have arguably the best defence in the competition and, Richardson aside, the Tiger attack doesn't pose too many fears for Scarlett, Harley and Co. Richmond has no chance if Richardson doesn't play a blinder here, and while he should perform solidly, I can't see him being a matchwinner. Richmond does have some capable midfielders, but the unsung Geelong centreline will run them around and eventually into the ground. Geelong play a very accountable and physical brand of football, and Richmond still needs a lot of work to be able to counter this effectively.
Geelong by 33pts
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Adelaide v West Coast (AAMI Stadium - Sun Aft)
Adelaide holds a 3-2 recent winning record over West Coast and, astonishingly, has n ot lost to the Eagles at home since Round 10, 1996! They've only ever lost twice to the Eagles at AAMI, which probably explains why Eagles fans are a tad more nervous than you'd expect them to be for this game. They needn't be too worried, as it'll be a case of good things come in threes come Sunday evening.
Adelaide are heading for a long, miserable season. Their once imperious midfield has been largely dismantled, their defence rivals Richmond's as the poorest in the game, and their attack carries little venom. If it wasn't for the depth of their ruck options and the presence of midfield dynamos: Riccuitto, McLeod & Goodwin the Crows would seem a lost cause. Minimalist list or not, they will still win enough games at home to avoid the wooden spoon.
West Coast will do enough to make sure this game isn't one of them though. The Eagles od struggle away from home, but will surely be pumped to get away to a confidence boosting flyer here. If West Coast wants to be considered a genuine premiership threat it simply has to win games like these. Given its current confidence and the depth and pace of its midfield, it should have enough talent to carry the day.
West Coast by 26pts
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Collingwood v Western Bulldogs (MCG - Mon Aft)
Collingwood is 4-1 ahead on recent encounters, which may explain the overconfidence apprent in many of its fans leading up to Monday's season opener. I think that this confidence is misplaced and that the Bulldogs will get off to the winning start here.
Collingwood has convinced itself that 2004 was an abberation, but I feel it was close to the truth. The side looks tired, slow, limited for talent across the park and devoid of fresh options. They can ill-afford to be without Josh Fraser for the first half of the year, particularly when Buckley has had a disjointed preseason and is struggling back from injury. To make matters worse, the defence that stood so strong across 2002-03 has developed the shakes and is being shown-up for sound key back capacity.
Western Bulldogs are still a dodgy prospect, and I'd feel more comfortable if Johnson was in the side. Still, they will be eager to impress for their first big game under Eade and I'm expecting their quality young midfield contingent to sizzle this year. Western should have fared better last year, and threw away several wins through set kicking that was too awful to be true for AFL level. No doubt they have worked hard on this, and providing the young midfield gets an even share of the ball, I think they'll do enough to win.
Western Bulldogs by 10pts
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And that's all I've got to say about that...
