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Collingwood v Geelong @ Telstra Dome
Geelong, while it would surely prefer to be playing at Skilled Stadium, will nonetheless enter this game carrying a 3-2 record in its favour from recent outings between these clubs. I wouldnt pay too much heed to Geelongs shock loss at home last week, as it was a very high standard game, and I still feel that the Cats are the best side in the competition right now. Similarly, I wouldnt read too much into Collingwoods win, as handy as it was against very solid opposition. The Magpies are better than their ladder position indicates, and have some handy footballers coming through, but will remain very much a hit and miss option for the remainder of the season. Presumably the Magpies will look to a repeat of last weeks effort, where they unsettled the Hawks with application to vigour and a decidedly unconventional forward structure. The former element is unlikely to work as effectively against this sort of opposition, but Geelong would pay to be wary of Messers Caracella & Didak. At the end of the day, the only thing Collingwood has on Geelong is the element of surprise, and I cant see it being enough against a strong Cat team on the rebound Geelong by 40 points
Carlton v Sydney @ Telstra Dome
Sydney hold an imposing 7-1 recent record against the battling Blues that dates back to 1998. Carlton will nonetheless fancy its chances of breaking this trend in a game that must surely rate, in aesthetic terms, as the most unappealing match of the season. Much has been made of the dismal standard of last weeks clash at AAMI, but this has served to unfairly obscure the fight that was inherent in the Carlton dog that afternoon. A similar level of fight will, at the very least, ensure competitiveness in this match, particularly against an opponent that has not been setting the world alight. Despite this, Sydney still maintains the greater depth of playing talent and seems the side more likely to maintain the level of workrate required to win out in a war of attrition. Good sides will get hold of the Swans in the midfield, but Carlton is one side that lacks the available manpower to achieve this task Sydney by 13 points
Richmond v West Coast @ MCG
Richmond holds a surprising 3-2 winning record against their more highly rated opponent and, as I see it, will build upon this record here. The Tigers have had a good year thus far, although the nature of their three defeats has shown a clear susceptibility to quality opposition. West Coast certainly qualifies as quality opposition, but would be only too aware of their dismal record in Melbourne. The sides shock loss to (then) bottom side Collingwood a mere fortnight ago further reiterated the clubs eastern fragility, and Im not convinced theyre ready to shake it off just yet. West Coast looks positively irresistible when running loose and free in the comforting confines of Subiaco, but unfamiliar surrounds have a tendency to expose the limitations inherent in their key position players and overall forwards. Many people have chosen to write-off the Tigers following the loss of Brown, and while it is a considerable blow to them, I still think they have the cattle and the gameplan to compound West Coasts ongoing Melbourne woes Richmond by 18 points
Fremantle v Brisbane Lions @ Subiaco
Brisbane holds a 3-2 recent winning record against the Dockers, but this figure is skewed by the reality that Fremantle has won the past two clashes, both of which have taken place at this venue. Fremantle are a frustratingly difficult side to get a fix on, sandwiching an appallingly soft home display against Hawthorn, with thumping wins over Melbourne and Collingwood. Last weeks long overdue icebreaker at Geelong was as good a win as you could ask for, and provided evidence that the club does have the graft and muscle to complement the talent. Brisbane, by way of contrast, have been nothing but awful for almost the whole season. They still have considerable talent on the roster, but there is a tiredness about the squad that is crippling, and with each week, the lack of leg speed available becomes all too painfully evident. Essentially, the side has lost its menace, along with the almost peerless skill that was once a hallmark of its competition dominance. At the end of the day, Freo is too tall, too fast, too skilled and too talented Fremantle by 34 points
Adelaide v Essendon @ AAMI Stadium
Essendon leads 3-2 on recent clashes, including a very convincing 51 point win at this venue last season. When coupled with last weeks strong showing against the Bulldogs, the Bombers would certainly fancy their chances here. Adelaide looked quite vulnerable at times last weekend, despite eventually doing enough to get the points against Carlton. Kicking accuracy proved a considerable headache for the Crows and they can ill-afford another below key outing in this area. The Crows can compete strongly out of the centre, but the Bombers looked very steady last week and would be buoyed by improvement in a couple of younger players, plus the return of James Hird. It wasnt that long ago that I was predicting priority picks for the Bombers, but they should take a big step toward permanently escaping the bottom four with a win here Essendon by 11 points
Kangaroos v Melbourne @ Manuka Oval
A change of scene for the Demons who have played their last 6 games against the Kangaroos at the MCG for a 4-2 winning record. The Kangaroos certainly have a liking for Manuka, but they are not unbeatable at this venue, and are clearly the inferior of these two outfits. That being said, they almost always give plenty of fight and would feel extra confident following their return to the winners list last weekend. The blue & whites would need a big showing from their tall forward structure, along with another dazzling Daniel Wells performance in order to best the Demons. Melbourne can be a bit up and down, but is very impressive when on song, and has the forward set-up to seriously damage the Kangaroos. With McLean, Sylvia & Johnstone showing great run and skill out of the centre in recent weeks, we can expect the Melbourne forwards to get excellent service. The Demons have greater skill, pace and overall talent and will be too hard to best provided they turn up to play Melbourne by 22 points
St Kilda v Port Adelaide @ Aurora Stadium*
St Kilda has been hampered this season by injuries to key players, but I can feel that theyre gradually getting on top of things. Port Adelaide holds a 6-0 recent record against the Saints, including two thumping wins at this venue from as many starts. Normally this form would be too good to ignore, but Port has been diabolical this season, returning its first ever 100+ point loss in Perth last weekend. The Power, it need be said, has had its own fair share of injury concerns, and has been especially hard hit in the midfield. The mainly windy climes of Launceston would be welcomed by the Power, but in reality should only serve to minimise the losing margin. With the Saints expected to get more ball out of the centre, it is likely to be another long afternoon at the office for the beleaguered Port defence. Effectively, Port look as tired and impotent as the hapless Lions do, and St Kilda just has too many gun options across the park to cough-up the points this time around St Kilda by 50 points
Western Bulldogs v Hawthorn @ Telstra Dome
The hapless Hounds have only won two of eight clashes with Hawthorn this century, but the tightness of the past two margins (11 & 12 points respectively, for a win apiece) gives some indication of the closely matched nature of the two teams. Neither team impressed at their last start, with both sides returning poor losses via substandard showings in (what should have been) very winnable games. The Bulldogs are developing a top young midfield unit, although it may be 2007 before it really hits its straps, given the lean nature of many young Bulldog bodies. The Dogs have been hit hard for height though, with Darcy out for the year and Grant likely to miss this week. Hawthorn has been hard at it all year and will be desperate to restore lost momentum with a win here. The Hawks forward deficiencies remain, but its ruck/midfield division is performing among the top 3 in the competition and will give plenty of drive here. Both sides look dodgy up front, but Hawthorn looks physically stronger and has an edge around the midfield, which should prove decisive Hawthorn by 30 points
Geelong, while it would surely prefer to be playing at Skilled Stadium, will nonetheless enter this game carrying a 3-2 record in its favour from recent outings between these clubs. I wouldnt pay too much heed to Geelongs shock loss at home last week, as it was a very high standard game, and I still feel that the Cats are the best side in the competition right now. Similarly, I wouldnt read too much into Collingwoods win, as handy as it was against very solid opposition. The Magpies are better than their ladder position indicates, and have some handy footballers coming through, but will remain very much a hit and miss option for the remainder of the season. Presumably the Magpies will look to a repeat of last weeks effort, where they unsettled the Hawks with application to vigour and a decidedly unconventional forward structure. The former element is unlikely to work as effectively against this sort of opposition, but Geelong would pay to be wary of Messers Caracella & Didak. At the end of the day, the only thing Collingwood has on Geelong is the element of surprise, and I cant see it being enough against a strong Cat team on the rebound Geelong by 40 points
Carlton v Sydney @ Telstra Dome
Sydney hold an imposing 7-1 recent record against the battling Blues that dates back to 1998. Carlton will nonetheless fancy its chances of breaking this trend in a game that must surely rate, in aesthetic terms, as the most unappealing match of the season. Much has been made of the dismal standard of last weeks clash at AAMI, but this has served to unfairly obscure the fight that was inherent in the Carlton dog that afternoon. A similar level of fight will, at the very least, ensure competitiveness in this match, particularly against an opponent that has not been setting the world alight. Despite this, Sydney still maintains the greater depth of playing talent and seems the side more likely to maintain the level of workrate required to win out in a war of attrition. Good sides will get hold of the Swans in the midfield, but Carlton is one side that lacks the available manpower to achieve this task Sydney by 13 points
Richmond v West Coast @ MCG
Richmond holds a surprising 3-2 winning record against their more highly rated opponent and, as I see it, will build upon this record here. The Tigers have had a good year thus far, although the nature of their three defeats has shown a clear susceptibility to quality opposition. West Coast certainly qualifies as quality opposition, but would be only too aware of their dismal record in Melbourne. The sides shock loss to (then) bottom side Collingwood a mere fortnight ago further reiterated the clubs eastern fragility, and Im not convinced theyre ready to shake it off just yet. West Coast looks positively irresistible when running loose and free in the comforting confines of Subiaco, but unfamiliar surrounds have a tendency to expose the limitations inherent in their key position players and overall forwards. Many people have chosen to write-off the Tigers following the loss of Brown, and while it is a considerable blow to them, I still think they have the cattle and the gameplan to compound West Coasts ongoing Melbourne woes Richmond by 18 points
Fremantle v Brisbane Lions @ Subiaco
Brisbane holds a 3-2 recent winning record against the Dockers, but this figure is skewed by the reality that Fremantle has won the past two clashes, both of which have taken place at this venue. Fremantle are a frustratingly difficult side to get a fix on, sandwiching an appallingly soft home display against Hawthorn, with thumping wins over Melbourne and Collingwood. Last weeks long overdue icebreaker at Geelong was as good a win as you could ask for, and provided evidence that the club does have the graft and muscle to complement the talent. Brisbane, by way of contrast, have been nothing but awful for almost the whole season. They still have considerable talent on the roster, but there is a tiredness about the squad that is crippling, and with each week, the lack of leg speed available becomes all too painfully evident. Essentially, the side has lost its menace, along with the almost peerless skill that was once a hallmark of its competition dominance. At the end of the day, Freo is too tall, too fast, too skilled and too talented Fremantle by 34 points
Adelaide v Essendon @ AAMI Stadium
Essendon leads 3-2 on recent clashes, including a very convincing 51 point win at this venue last season. When coupled with last weeks strong showing against the Bulldogs, the Bombers would certainly fancy their chances here. Adelaide looked quite vulnerable at times last weekend, despite eventually doing enough to get the points against Carlton. Kicking accuracy proved a considerable headache for the Crows and they can ill-afford another below key outing in this area. The Crows can compete strongly out of the centre, but the Bombers looked very steady last week and would be buoyed by improvement in a couple of younger players, plus the return of James Hird. It wasnt that long ago that I was predicting priority picks for the Bombers, but they should take a big step toward permanently escaping the bottom four with a win here Essendon by 11 points
Kangaroos v Melbourne @ Manuka Oval
A change of scene for the Demons who have played their last 6 games against the Kangaroos at the MCG for a 4-2 winning record. The Kangaroos certainly have a liking for Manuka, but they are not unbeatable at this venue, and are clearly the inferior of these two outfits. That being said, they almost always give plenty of fight and would feel extra confident following their return to the winners list last weekend. The blue & whites would need a big showing from their tall forward structure, along with another dazzling Daniel Wells performance in order to best the Demons. Melbourne can be a bit up and down, but is very impressive when on song, and has the forward set-up to seriously damage the Kangaroos. With McLean, Sylvia & Johnstone showing great run and skill out of the centre in recent weeks, we can expect the Melbourne forwards to get excellent service. The Demons have greater skill, pace and overall talent and will be too hard to best provided they turn up to play Melbourne by 22 points
St Kilda v Port Adelaide @ Aurora Stadium*
St Kilda has been hampered this season by injuries to key players, but I can feel that theyre gradually getting on top of things. Port Adelaide holds a 6-0 recent record against the Saints, including two thumping wins at this venue from as many starts. Normally this form would be too good to ignore, but Port has been diabolical this season, returning its first ever 100+ point loss in Perth last weekend. The Power, it need be said, has had its own fair share of injury concerns, and has been especially hard hit in the midfield. The mainly windy climes of Launceston would be welcomed by the Power, but in reality should only serve to minimise the losing margin. With the Saints expected to get more ball out of the centre, it is likely to be another long afternoon at the office for the beleaguered Port defence. Effectively, Port look as tired and impotent as the hapless Lions do, and St Kilda just has too many gun options across the park to cough-up the points this time around St Kilda by 50 points
Western Bulldogs v Hawthorn @ Telstra Dome
The hapless Hounds have only won two of eight clashes with Hawthorn this century, but the tightness of the past two margins (11 & 12 points respectively, for a win apiece) gives some indication of the closely matched nature of the two teams. Neither team impressed at their last start, with both sides returning poor losses via substandard showings in (what should have been) very winnable games. The Bulldogs are developing a top young midfield unit, although it may be 2007 before it really hits its straps, given the lean nature of many young Bulldog bodies. The Dogs have been hit hard for height though, with Darcy out for the year and Grant likely to miss this week. Hawthorn has been hard at it all year and will be desperate to restore lost momentum with a win here. The Hawks forward deficiencies remain, but its ruck/midfield division is performing among the top 3 in the competition and will give plenty of drive here. Both sides look dodgy up front, but Hawthorn looks physically stronger and has an edge around the midfield, which should prove decisive Hawthorn by 30 points
