- Messages
- 2,323
Carlton vs Geelong at Telstra Dome
Carlton is for all the world a bottom four side, and is playing accordingly. The recent loss of Fevola through suspension has highlighted the lack of oomph inherent in the Blues attack, and a subsequent reduction in work rate across the side has emphasised the lack of genuine quality available on the clubs list. A fortnight ago, Carlton became the latest in a growing list of clubs to get a lucky let-off against Hawthorn, but that result was mere wallpapering over cracks that were made painfully evident by a resurgent Tiger outfit last weekend. Geelong, by contrast, have settled solidly after an indifferent start to the year and now look very much the top four side they were in 2004. Ive never hidden my admiration for this current Cat line-up, which has a strong structure and overall balance, underscored by strong bodies across the park, and a complementary smattering of speed and skill that will ensure the club wins many more games than it loses. Cats by 65pts
Hawthorn vs Melbourne at M.C.G.
Hawthorn is for all the world a bottom four side, but it has not been playing accordingly. From a medium to long term perspective the signs have been very good, but this is balanced out by short to medium term projections that bode bleakly for the club. History tells us that sides can only sustain a run of honourable and narrow defeats for a limited period before heads begin to drop, work rates slow, and heavy defeats follow. Im not anticipating a blow out here, but if a tall marking option doesnt stand-up for the team across half forward soon, then nasty defeats could well be the order of the day. Melbourne is not structurally at its best here, but it still possesses a broad array of talent, and a poise borne of confidence that should be enough to deliver it another four points. The absence of Neitz, Miller and (possibly) Bruce up forward will markedly reduce scoring power, but Robertson is no slouch and Green invariably plays well against the Hawks. Demons by 16pts
West Coast Eagles vs St Kilda at Subiaco Oval
Ive been impressed with both of these sides and would expect both to make the final four this year. The task will be considerably tougher for the Saints who, should the side lose here, will find themselves uncomfortably positioned at 4-4. I certainly enjoyed the large snippets of the Saints/Cats clash that I was treated to last week, and feel that St Kilda can draw plenty of encouragement from the match, despite being overran in the final term. West Coast were worked hard by Hawthorn in Tasmania, but rarely looked like surrendering the points, and will prove hellishly tough for any team to best on their home turf. While the Eagles defence still looks a tad fragile, they have unearthed a couple of good forward types and their midfield division is second to none. The loss of Kozitschke is a big blow for the Saints, but they still look strong on paper, and have enough height and run to ensure a ripper contest. St Kilda still strike me as the best side in the competition when at full strength, but the Eagles are just too good to pick against in Perth. Eagles by 18pts
Kangaroos vs Western Bulldogs at Telstra Dome
The toughest game to pick for this round. The Kangaroo bubble has been well and truly burst over the past fortnight, but the Bulldogs remain ever an enigmatic and risky option to run with. Youll scarcely see a better win all season than the one the Hounds conjured-up last week, but Ill need to see more before I accept that the Bulldogs can maintain such form for the rest of the year. The Hounds have fabulous run and have recruited players with promising skills but, as per Hawthorn, lack serious hurting power up forward, particularly with Darcy out for the season. The Kangaroos have pretty good balance across the paddock and encompass a harder edge to their game than the Western Bulldogs. The extra height they have up forward proved telling against the Hawks and could prove equally as damaging here. The Roos wont be able to match the Hounds for run, however, and Im not sure that their extra physical grunt will be enough. Its a tough call, but with Darcy missing and allowing for the lean Hound bodies, Ill opt for the home side. Kangaroos by 8 pts
Adelaide vs Brisbane Lions at AAMI Stadium
Brisbane still has a strong side on paper, but has been truly pitiful on the paddock in many matches this season. The return of Brown has given them some lift, while players like Lappin & Akermanis continue to apply themselves with top class football. Unfortunately for Lethal, too many players are no longer prepared to do the little things required to keep the side winning, and the side has shown a worrying susceptibility to fast, running football in recent times. Adelaide will no doubt have watched snippets of Hawthorn & Westerns outings against the Lions and will know well that hard running will be the best way of getting themselves over the line also. Im not sold on Adelaide (despite their better than anticipated showings), but they should have too much spirit and determination from a side that looks more and more success sated with every game. Crows by 15pts
Sydney Swans vs Port Adelaide at S.C.G.
The Sydney Swans have been badly exposed in recent games and even the luxury of home ground advantage may not be enough for them to get the points here. Sydney fans dont like to admit it, but their list is painfully thin, and it doesnt take many hits to the top playing roster for the side to seriously lose its way. The twin absences of Williams & Maxfield have amply highlighted the worrying nature of the current Swan midfield, and the defence looks very ordinary indeed. Admittedly, Port Adelaide is having anything but a stellar season to this point, but they still possess greater playing talent than Sydney, and showed a lot of good signs against the Kangaroos last weekend. I cant see Sydney matching or bettering Port in any area and, home game or otherwise, if theyre not careful this could be a bit of a blow out. Power by 46pts
Collingwood vs Richmond at M.C.G.
Richmond has got away to a flier this year and theres little reason to believe that the fun wont continue for them here. The Tigers have assembled a very, very handy forward structure that utilises two key marking talls (Richardson & Stafford) with handy peripheral smalls (Brown & Krakouer) to keep opposition defenders constantly under the pump. Stafford will be missing here, but Richardson & Brown have been in more than adequate form to rip the Collingwood defence apart on their own. Collingwood reminds me much of Hawthorn last season. Coming off a bad injury run, their supporters convinced themselves that the playing list was still good enough providing the injury list stayed low. Its fair to say that all but the most myopic of Magpie tragics would now concede that their list isnt in considerable trouble. That being said, Im confident the club has enough pride to play this one extra hard in the wake of last weekends atrocity, but they simply lack the structure, speed and confidence to match it with the Tigers at the current time. Tigers by 56pts
Essendon vs Fremantle at Telstra Dome
The penny has also dropped at Essendon, where fans of the club are now coming to terms with the brittle remains of a once strong list eroded by time and unrealised potential among its youth. So bad is the situation at Windy Hill right now, the club has only been able to beat Hawthorn & Collingwood (teams positioned at 15 & 16 respectively) thus far, and the win over the former was as fortunate as they come. Fremantle suffered a nightmare loss to Richmond a few weeks back, but have recovered strongly over the past fortnight, and particularly impressed with its win over Melbourne at the MCG. Essendon believes it owns Fremantle, but the Dockers have a huge edge in available talent and should be expected to follow-up the Demons result with another win here. Fremantle looks far better all across the park and if iut has serious aspirations for a final four berth, then it simply has to exploit Essendons paucity of circumstances here. Fremantle by 33pts
Carlton is for all the world a bottom four side, and is playing accordingly. The recent loss of Fevola through suspension has highlighted the lack of oomph inherent in the Blues attack, and a subsequent reduction in work rate across the side has emphasised the lack of genuine quality available on the clubs list. A fortnight ago, Carlton became the latest in a growing list of clubs to get a lucky let-off against Hawthorn, but that result was mere wallpapering over cracks that were made painfully evident by a resurgent Tiger outfit last weekend. Geelong, by contrast, have settled solidly after an indifferent start to the year and now look very much the top four side they were in 2004. Ive never hidden my admiration for this current Cat line-up, which has a strong structure and overall balance, underscored by strong bodies across the park, and a complementary smattering of speed and skill that will ensure the club wins many more games than it loses. Cats by 65pts
Hawthorn vs Melbourne at M.C.G.
Hawthorn is for all the world a bottom four side, but it has not been playing accordingly. From a medium to long term perspective the signs have been very good, but this is balanced out by short to medium term projections that bode bleakly for the club. History tells us that sides can only sustain a run of honourable and narrow defeats for a limited period before heads begin to drop, work rates slow, and heavy defeats follow. Im not anticipating a blow out here, but if a tall marking option doesnt stand-up for the team across half forward soon, then nasty defeats could well be the order of the day. Melbourne is not structurally at its best here, but it still possesses a broad array of talent, and a poise borne of confidence that should be enough to deliver it another four points. The absence of Neitz, Miller and (possibly) Bruce up forward will markedly reduce scoring power, but Robertson is no slouch and Green invariably plays well against the Hawks. Demons by 16pts
West Coast Eagles vs St Kilda at Subiaco Oval
Ive been impressed with both of these sides and would expect both to make the final four this year. The task will be considerably tougher for the Saints who, should the side lose here, will find themselves uncomfortably positioned at 4-4. I certainly enjoyed the large snippets of the Saints/Cats clash that I was treated to last week, and feel that St Kilda can draw plenty of encouragement from the match, despite being overran in the final term. West Coast were worked hard by Hawthorn in Tasmania, but rarely looked like surrendering the points, and will prove hellishly tough for any team to best on their home turf. While the Eagles defence still looks a tad fragile, they have unearthed a couple of good forward types and their midfield division is second to none. The loss of Kozitschke is a big blow for the Saints, but they still look strong on paper, and have enough height and run to ensure a ripper contest. St Kilda still strike me as the best side in the competition when at full strength, but the Eagles are just too good to pick against in Perth. Eagles by 18pts
Kangaroos vs Western Bulldogs at Telstra Dome
The toughest game to pick for this round. The Kangaroo bubble has been well and truly burst over the past fortnight, but the Bulldogs remain ever an enigmatic and risky option to run with. Youll scarcely see a better win all season than the one the Hounds conjured-up last week, but Ill need to see more before I accept that the Bulldogs can maintain such form for the rest of the year. The Hounds have fabulous run and have recruited players with promising skills but, as per Hawthorn, lack serious hurting power up forward, particularly with Darcy out for the season. The Kangaroos have pretty good balance across the paddock and encompass a harder edge to their game than the Western Bulldogs. The extra height they have up forward proved telling against the Hawks and could prove equally as damaging here. The Roos wont be able to match the Hounds for run, however, and Im not sure that their extra physical grunt will be enough. Its a tough call, but with Darcy missing and allowing for the lean Hound bodies, Ill opt for the home side. Kangaroos by 8 pts
Adelaide vs Brisbane Lions at AAMI Stadium
Brisbane still has a strong side on paper, but has been truly pitiful on the paddock in many matches this season. The return of Brown has given them some lift, while players like Lappin & Akermanis continue to apply themselves with top class football. Unfortunately for Lethal, too many players are no longer prepared to do the little things required to keep the side winning, and the side has shown a worrying susceptibility to fast, running football in recent times. Adelaide will no doubt have watched snippets of Hawthorn & Westerns outings against the Lions and will know well that hard running will be the best way of getting themselves over the line also. Im not sold on Adelaide (despite their better than anticipated showings), but they should have too much spirit and determination from a side that looks more and more success sated with every game. Crows by 15pts
Sydney Swans vs Port Adelaide at S.C.G.
The Sydney Swans have been badly exposed in recent games and even the luxury of home ground advantage may not be enough for them to get the points here. Sydney fans dont like to admit it, but their list is painfully thin, and it doesnt take many hits to the top playing roster for the side to seriously lose its way. The twin absences of Williams & Maxfield have amply highlighted the worrying nature of the current Swan midfield, and the defence looks very ordinary indeed. Admittedly, Port Adelaide is having anything but a stellar season to this point, but they still possess greater playing talent than Sydney, and showed a lot of good signs against the Kangaroos last weekend. I cant see Sydney matching or bettering Port in any area and, home game or otherwise, if theyre not careful this could be a bit of a blow out. Power by 46pts
Collingwood vs Richmond at M.C.G.
Richmond has got away to a flier this year and theres little reason to believe that the fun wont continue for them here. The Tigers have assembled a very, very handy forward structure that utilises two key marking talls (Richardson & Stafford) with handy peripheral smalls (Brown & Krakouer) to keep opposition defenders constantly under the pump. Stafford will be missing here, but Richardson & Brown have been in more than adequate form to rip the Collingwood defence apart on their own. Collingwood reminds me much of Hawthorn last season. Coming off a bad injury run, their supporters convinced themselves that the playing list was still good enough providing the injury list stayed low. Its fair to say that all but the most myopic of Magpie tragics would now concede that their list isnt in considerable trouble. That being said, Im confident the club has enough pride to play this one extra hard in the wake of last weekends atrocity, but they simply lack the structure, speed and confidence to match it with the Tigers at the current time. Tigers by 56pts
Essendon vs Fremantle at Telstra Dome
The penny has also dropped at Essendon, where fans of the club are now coming to terms with the brittle remains of a once strong list eroded by time and unrealised potential among its youth. So bad is the situation at Windy Hill right now, the club has only been able to beat Hawthorn & Collingwood (teams positioned at 15 & 16 respectively) thus far, and the win over the former was as fortunate as they come. Fremantle suffered a nightmare loss to Richmond a few weeks back, but have recovered strongly over the past fortnight, and particularly impressed with its win over Melbourne at the MCG. Essendon believes it owns Fremantle, but the Dockers have a huge edge in available talent and should be expected to follow-up the Demons result with another win here. Fremantle looks far better all across the park and if iut has serious aspirations for a final four berth, then it simply has to exploit Essendons paucity of circumstances here. Fremantle by 33pts
) so it was a good weekend.
