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For those who may be interested, the latest betting market (just days out from season 2006) reads as follows:
St Kilda $5.00
Adelaide $6.00
Geelong $6.50
West Coast $6.75
Sydney $11.00
Brisbane $13.00
Port $21.00
Melbourne $23.00
Fremantle $23.00
Collingwood $23.00
Essendon $26.00
Bulldogs $26.00
Kangaroos $34.00
Richmond $41.00
Hawthorn $61.00
Carlton $126.00
Given that it is the punters that frame the market, we can assume from Collingwood's odds that there are way too many deluded Magpie types out there (not that this was ever really in doubt), given that the Pies shouldn't be shorter than $41 (and that's being kind).
You could also say the same for Essendon and Port Adelaide (given the shape of both club's lists), although the latter probably retain a few brownie points given that their last flag was only two years ago and they did finish 2005 off strongly. Brisbane could surprise I suppose, but they don't appear to be great value at such a short price (given recent form).
Melbourne are certainly the best value here at $23, but I'm reminded of the old adage from my taxi driving days that 50% is fine as far as commission goes, but 100% of nothing will still equal nothing, and given that the Demons are too soft to win the whole comp, there's probably not a lot of genuine difference between where they are now and the $13 they probably should be at.
If you're thinking about wagering on a final 8 or wooden spoon finish, it may be worth bearing in mind the following sobering points:
St Kilda $5.00
Adelaide $6.00
Geelong $6.50
West Coast $6.75
Sydney $11.00
Brisbane $13.00
Port $21.00
Melbourne $23.00
Fremantle $23.00
Collingwood $23.00
Essendon $26.00
Bulldogs $26.00
Kangaroos $34.00
Richmond $41.00
Hawthorn $61.00
Carlton $126.00
Given that it is the punters that frame the market, we can assume from Collingwood's odds that there are way too many deluded Magpie types out there (not that this was ever really in doubt), given that the Pies shouldn't be shorter than $41 (and that's being kind).
You could also say the same for Essendon and Port Adelaide (given the shape of both club's lists), although the latter probably retain a few brownie points given that their last flag was only two years ago and they did finish 2005 off strongly. Brisbane could surprise I suppose, but they don't appear to be great value at such a short price (given recent form).
Melbourne are certainly the best value here at $23, but I'm reminded of the old adage from my taxi driving days that 50% is fine as far as commission goes, but 100% of nothing will still equal nothing, and given that the Demons are too soft to win the whole comp, there's probably not a lot of genuine difference between where they are now and the $13 they probably should be at.
If you're thinking about wagering on a final 8 or wooden spoon finish, it may be worth bearing in mind the following sobering points:
- Year in and year out, almost without fail, one side will surge from outside the eight (the previous year) into a top four spot.
Commonly, two sides will fall out of the eight and be replaced by two strugglers from outside the eight the previous year.
Carlton may be raging hot favourite for the spoon, but they did finish tenth with much the same list two years back, and no side has gone back to back with wooden spoons since the late Fitzroy club in 1996. Its also not uncommon for sides from outside the bottom four to crash heavily into 16th spot;
Any Collingwood fan you will meet will tell you that the Pies are certainties for the 8 and good things for the top four (allowing for a good injury run). They predicate this on the side making the GF with a good injury run in 2003. What they fail to appreciate is that the competition has moved on significantly over the past 30 months, their list has diminished, and their key players have become older and more injury prone.
