AFL Round 5 2003

[CyberKev]

Well, I'm sitting neatly on 26.5 from 32, but rounds don't come much tougher than this one and I suspect that anything above four will be considered a big bonus given the closeness of the combatants...

ESSENDON vs COLLINGWOOD (10 pts)- [MCG]

I don't have a lot of time for either of these sides, but I can't deny that they always turn it on for the Anzac Day game. I'm sorely tempted to run with the Bombers here, as they look very experienced and will bring themselves up for this game. I'm leaning toward the Magpies, however, as they seem to match Essendon up well, they have significantly greater legspeed, and despite being equally dismal in ruck terms they do possess a livelier midfield section. I can't see Essendon wining the midfield battle, but they still may be able to win regardless if they can hold Tarrant & Rocca, given that Collingwood always struggles to kick a reasonable score. I'll plum for the Pies with minimal confidence...

SYDNEY vs MELBOURNE (18 pts) - [Telstra Stadium]

Sydney clearly lacks height and has routinely been caught out for class across the ground, but it does possess an honesty which ensures competitiveness in its matches. Melbourne looks anything but consistent and totally embarrassed itself in its last quarter efforts last week. Despite this, I suspect that Melbourne will be too dangerous out of the centre and will get enough ball down forward to exploit the clear weaknesses apparent in the Swans defence. I suspect that the move to the Stadium will, in the short term, deprive the Swans of the home ground advantage previously enjoyed at the SCG. The nature of the contest will ensure a tight one, but Melbourne's superior leg speed and skill (combined with the residual shame from the Geelong debacle) will be enough to win the evening.

HAWTHORN (19 pts) vs RICHMOND - [MCG]

There is a clear similarity between these sides ( in terms of results) that obfuscates the differences inherent in each squad. Hawthorn has the fatter, rounder and more talented list, but Richmond can be a perversely irresistable force when it is on song and has the Tiger Army in full voice behind it. Talent should win out here though, particularly with Blumfield and Ottens missing from the centre of the park for the Tigers. Hawthorn should thus be capable of winning at least an equal share of the ball and unless Richardson fires (Hay usually keeps him quiet) then it is hard to see the Tigers doing enough to snatch the points. Richmond has improved its leg speed, but still trails the Hawks in this area and the return of Thompson should give Hawthorn a height boost that could be telling.

KANGAROOS vs CARLTON (9 pts) - [MCG]

The Kangaroos were found wanting in the West last week, whilst the Blues looked fab for a half, before being overran by Port. I really feel that the Kangaroos are one of those sides that looks bright in the opening few weeks, but falls off badly when the competition settles. Carlton are average, but may be slightly better than expected and Pagan's knowledge of the opposition will prove most advantageous here. It really could go either way, but Carlton has impressed me more in recent weeks and if they can start as enthusiastically as last week then the Roos will not have the class to peg them back.

ADELAIDE vs PORT ADELAIDE (6 pts)- [AAMI Stadium]

The first of the two big interstate derbies and it should be a doozie. I'd go with Port normally, but they're still settling after a disrupted start to the year and should fall just short here. Adelaide has plenty of talent, but it seems to me a tad lazy and it is likely that it thinks it is a better side than it actually is. It will need to be switched on here, as Port is rapidly regaining its composure and has the skill and pace to worry anyone. If Port Adelaide can win an equal share of the ball (as it should) then I expect that its forwards will be able to do enough to get thePower home. I was worried a tad by Carlton's ability to bang home easy goals at the end last week, but Port's multi-pronged forward set-up of the Burgoyne's & Pickett looked very potent and will only be more so with Tredrea's return.

FREMANTLE (12 pts) vs WEST COAST - [Subiaco]

Its always a worrying prospect when tipping Freo, but the side does look temptingly exciting and appears to have very good future prospects. West Coast is solid enough, but it is no better than the Dockers and doesn't appear to have the same potential for improvement. Freo's best is not seen often enough, but if it is shown then it will be shown in the West and its best is better than the Eagles. The height of Freo in key positions will be telling and I expect Longmuir to be the key as the once dominant Jakovich is now very much a tired and slow liability at CHB for the Eagles.

BRISBANE (62 pts) vs WESTERN BULLDOGS - [Gabba]

The one absolute certainty of the round and (possibly) the season. Brisbane will cruise into the top four this season while the hapless Hounds will finish in the bottom four. Even the best sides come away from the Gabba empty handed and the Dogs are a couple of classes below the Premiers in terms of talent. Brisbane has the Bulldogs measure in every area of the park except for the ruck, but Brisbane's class midfield is good enough to shark Darcy's hitouts anyway. The Bulldogs will need to play out of their skins early or this could turn exceedingly ugly.

ST KILDA vs GEELONG (4 pts) - [Telstra Dome]

The Saints have a clear edge in talent, but the Cats are better coached and appear a bit steadier in their overall play. The Saints should have smacked Richmond up last week, but ludicrous turn-overs punsihed them severely and the Cats will exploit such mistakes with similar glee here. The Sainst will worry the Cats with their young talls, but I expect the Cats to win out of the centre and in a game like this such an advantage will be crucial. I really believe that Grant Thomas hasn't got a clue about tactics and the Saints were off their rockers when they appointed him coach (I assume after the costly Blight debacle that he came cheap). They had the chance to pick-up a smart customer like Connolly at bargain basement price and may well rue the decision for years to come.

CyberKev

 

[imported_Lord Ted.]

CK,
I am here to tip the Carna Saints again,but this time by a more modest 54 points.
I was only 100 points out last game,but I'm confident these felines won't be as difficult to get along with.

 

This message has been deleted by the author.

 

[imported_Lord Ted.]

Carna Saints,
Only 9 points out this week and got a winner.
Premiership material.

 

[CyberKev]

Lord Ted

Nice work, Old Son! A solid win by the Saints in the end, although my reservations about the way in which the side is coached remain. The club has so much talent to harness over the next few years and I really fear that 'Cornflakes' Thomas will stuff things up severely.

Mind you, I'm more worried about my own side at the moment! The way this Hawthorn side plays football its definitely a case of 'Serenity Now, Insanity ALWAYS' for its frazzled fan base! The humiliation, the f$#@ing humiliation!!! Richmond is an average unit despite its currently lofty perch on the AFL ladder and to surrender a 51 point lead to them was little short of horrific!

I am reminded of the classic quote by an erstwhile English football manager whose name eludes me...

"When you're 4-0 up you should never lose 7-1!"

I think there's something in that for the Hawks right now...

I never thought I'd be turning to the Dragons for comfort this season, but even their patented brand of perverse inconsistency is several steps up from the misery that the Hawks are churning out...

I feel nauseous... Still.

Good Day, Sir.

CyberKev

 

[meltiger..]

"Richmond is an average unit "

LOL!

Why don't you try stating such things on a week where your team wasn't shown up for the heartless bunch of pretty boys they really are?

Richmond are as good as any team in the comp bar Brisbane & I can promise you one thing Kev, we will finish higher on the table than the over rated showponies from Glenferrie.

Nothing personal, I am sure you were gutted and ashamed at Hawthorn's performance on the weekend, however the simple fact is, if the Hawthorn stars put as much prode into their on field performances as they do their haircuts - Such embarrassing losses would not be happening.

I still thin you under rate Richmond FAR too much though...

 

[meltiger..]

"as much prode "

I meant as much pride lol

 

[CyberKev]

Meltiger

There's nothing wrong with taking prode in one's haircut, and I've certainly got plenty of prode in mine, even if it could benefit from a wee trim.

Richmond are as good as any team in the comp bar Brisbane & I can promise you one thing Kev, we will finish higher on the table than the over rated showponies from Glenferrie.

Nothing like optimism, I suppose, however misplaced. Richmond have been ordinary all season and their place on the table flatters them. St Kilda shot themselves in the foot a week ago despite being the better side and a decidedly subpar Hawthorn (despite the weekend's abberation) would roll the Tigers8 times in 10 when in semi-reasonable touch.

I'd like to see the Tigers doing well, but I've seen enough footy now to not be fooled. Brisbane, Port, Adelaide and Essendon will make up the final four barring major injury woes, as these four sides are clearly ahead of the rest. Richmond managed a minor upset on the weekend, but will need to pull-off two major upsets over the ensuing fortnight just to get within 6 goals of both Port and Essendon. This is not to suggest that the Tigers won't make the 8, as almost all the other 12 sides are capable of filling positions 5-8, but the club is a world away from being a genuine flag challenger.

I'd also suggest that the Tigers keep Kane Johnson in cotton wool outside of match days, as the club would be zero chance of making the finals without him.

CyberKev

 

[imported_fat_mike03]

my poor doggies season was over the moment chris grant went down.

scotty west has it all on his shoulders now and needs others like bread johnson to lift the rest of the team.


cyber kev how do you reckon the doggies would've went if grant didnt get injured?

 

[CyberKev]

Fat Mike

Its always a pleasure to see new handles popping-up on this decidedly under-utilised thread.

I've just consulted the draw to see when Hawthorn is playing the Hounds, as I get very edgy about making negative comments about opposition sides when we have to play them the following round. Given that we don't meet until July, I guess I have a fair degree of latitude with what I say here.

Not that I want to be destructively critical of the Dogs, as they're battlers and I admire battlers because they do it tough. The Dogs also spend less on their football than the other teams (Hawthorn excepted) so this needs to be taken into account when assessing their performance.

The Dogs would certainly be missing Grant's experience and height, although I do feel that his better days are behind him. The Dogs topline players have clear quality, but the overall list falls away more dramatically than most after the top six or so and the team seems to lack depth of talent, particularly in defence.

It would be quite disheartening for Rohde and Dogs fans, as the team is rarely embarrassed and maintains a very sound work ethic. This was perfectly evidenced against Brisbane and Essendon, where the team ran them both hard, but lacked the class needed to put them away. Its hard to tell which is worse, having the talent but not the application (Hawthorn) or vice-versa (Bulldogs)?

The Hounds do have some fine youngsters and all they can do is keep plugging away in the hope that the jigsaw puzzle pieces start falling into place. A lot of the football season comes down to good fortune. Collingwood was not overly endowed with talent last season either, but for much of the first half of the season they kept running-up against sides that were undermanned and/or out of form. The Dogs have been unlucky to have struck a resurgent Essendon and the classy Lions at the Gabba, as they would surely have knocked over Hawthorn or Melbourne on their form at the weekend (few sides wouldn't have). Its a complex puzzle, but early season form suggests that none of the teams can be written-off as potential finalists just yet.

Good luck against the Saints this weekend in what I think will be an absorbing contest.

CyberKev

 

[imported_Lord Ted.]

Absorbing.
Potential grandfinalists playing potential wooden spooners.
A72 point diff ain't absorbing, it is a flogging.
The Hounds(as you call them CK) should be relocated and then they could be called the Hobart Hounds.
I admit to having very little knowledge re AFL,but they have had some turmoil with teams moving (Swans and Lions) and I have always found it strange that there isn't a Tasmanian team in the national comp.How about the Tassie Devils?
Back in the mid 70's I went to a Carna Saints v Fitzroy game.In those days the Saints would beat a fancied team and get a hiding from a lowly team.Yeah,Fitzroy won.
Revenge will be sweet in 2003
Saints to devour the Lions in the GF.
You read it here first.

 

[imported_Lord Ted.]

By the Way CK,
I really enjoy reading your analysis,descriptions and predictions.I look forward to your AFL thread cause it is informative,entertaining,very well written and does the sport a favour.
Apart from the fact that I do mean the above,I have now sucked up far enough to a Hawks fan.The worst colours of any team in Oz.Adult poo brown and baby poo yellow.
You are only forgiven on the basis of your magnificent choice of League teams to support.
I understand this will be a difficult week for you.Heart attack material,one might say.
Your AFL coach chucks one in on a semi regular basis and the mighty Dragons opposition coach has been known to miss a beat or two.
I wish no harm to Peter Schwab (spelling?).

 

[meltiger..]

There's nothing wrong with taking prode in one's haircut, and I've certainly got plenty of prode in mine, even if it could benefit from a wee trim.

LOL!!!

Mate, I agree that theres nothing wrong with it, however...

Richmond are as good as any team in the comp bar Brisbane & I can promise you one thing Kev, we will finish higher on the table than the over rated showponies from Glenferrie.

Nothing like optimism, I suppose, however misplaced. Richmond have been ordinary all season and their place on the table flatters them. St Kilda shot themselves in the foot a week ago despite being the better side and a decidedly subpar Hawthorn (despite the weekend's abberation) would roll the Tigers8 times in 10 when in semi-reasonable touch.

Maybe in years gone by yes, however with someone who is clearly not afraid of the tough stuff in Coughlan coming through and ourgenius decision to trade away #2 and Torney for Johnson, the team finally has some backbone anda couple of players who are able to get in and win the hard ball andallow the soft reciever types in Tivs and Bowdo to do what they do best without putting undue pressure on them.

Fact remains, if we had DK out there on Saturday it would not have made a lick of difference how good Everitt rucked, your best midfielder would have been tagged out of the game and the flow of the ball going into the forward line would not have been so heavy.

I am happy to concede that the Richmond players are not nearly as skilled as some of the Hawthorn boys but there is one quality the clubhas the Hawthorn clearly lack in the current playing group and that is - SPIRIT. You have to admit mate, the only time in the lastfive years that Hawthorn hasn't gone missing when the blow torch has been applied was the Prelim of '01 .... Every other time someone puts an ounce of pressure on that playing group, they just simply fold and teams run all over them. Crawford is the one player of that group I have any respect for in such circumstances and even he has been known to go missing occasionally, that is a problem the club needs to deal with now and one can only hope the disgrace Richmond made of them on Saturday helps them in that.

Don't buy into the St Kilda hype mate, they are no where near as good as their coach and fans make them out to be.... Richmond did what Richmond do in that game, kicked a winning score and then fell asleep in the last quarter. Go back and watch the last 5 years worth of Tigers V Saints games... They do it almost every time - Except 2001 when they didn't start playing until the 2nd quarter

I'd like to see the Tigers doing well, but I've seen enough footy now to not be fooled. Brisbane, Port, Adelaide and Essendon will make up the final four barring major injury woes, as these four sides are clearly ahead of the rest. Richmond managed a minor upset on the weekend, but will need to pull-off two major upsets over the ensuing fortnight just to get within 6 goals of both Port and Essendon. This is not to suggest that the Tigers won't make the 8, as almost all the other 12 sides are capable of filling positions 5-8, but the club is a world away from being a genuine flag challenger.

If we can beat one of them will you concede you under rate the Tiges even just slightly mate??? No Holland (Although that will probably change for the Essendon game - I've been of the belief for months that he was setting himself for the match against the Scummers), no Richo, no Ottens and most likely no Staff given the media seem to have taken it on themselves to ensure the AFL has no choice but to suspend an innocent man.... That makes it pretty tough for us mate, if we can knock one of them off without our four best talls will you concede?

I didn't actually say we were premiership material, just that you do now and have always vastly under rated us.


I'd also suggest that the Tigers keep Kane Johnson in cotton wool outside of match days, as the club would be zero chance of making the finals without him.

I agree here 110%.

Besides the fact he is an absoloute top line player, the bloke loves the Richmond footy club as much as any other supporter does... He gives us something that we have lacked for years & years. The only other two recruiting decisions they have made in the last ten years that come even close to being as beneficial as this one is drafting Otto & trading for Broders a few years back.

 

[CyberKev]

Meltiger

I am happy to concede that the Richmond players are not nearly as skilled as some of the Hawthorn boys but there is one quality the clubhas the Hawthorn clearly lack in the current playing group and that is - SPIRIT. You have to admit mate, the only time in the lastfive years that Hawthorn hasn't gone missing when the blow torch has been applied was the Prelim of '01 .... Every other time someone puts an ounce of pressure on that playing group, they just simply fold and teams run all over them. Crawford is the one player of that group I have any respect for in such circumstances and even he has been known to go missing occasionally, that is a problem the club needs to deal with now and one can only hope the disgrace Richmond made of them on Saturday helps them in that.

??????

Obviously you didn't get a good look at the Hawk side across the games of the 2000 & 2001 finals series. There were no tougher sides in the comp that the Kangaroos & the Bombers (who were both reigning premiers) and yet we outplayed the pair of them (just not on the final scoreboard alas).

All this "soft" shit began during the second half of 2001 when the rot set in and Hawthorn (already possessing the leanest centreline in the comp) was forced to play out a dozen games missing 2-4 of its best midfielders and 1-2 of its key talls each week (which obviously is going to impact on a developing side). The midfield woes were the reasoning behind the decision to recruit a welter of promising young midfield types who were always going to take some time to bring on. This became all the more problematic during 2002 with every Hawk tall (bar the mediocre Nick Stone) either being outed through injury or forced to play unfit for considerable sections of the year. Not a great situation to be in when you're trying to blood young midfielders, although messers Ries, Hodge and Mitchell didn't disgrace themselves. Not surprising that the team struggled when robbed of its key weapon (falling from easily the top marking side over 2000-2001 to a miserable 11th). Not a lot has changed thus far this season and it would be nice to get a decent run from fate to get some stability in the side. Being a top side isn't purely about having top notch players, its also about having stability and being able to play a settled line-up for long periods. Its also interesting that people rave about the 'young' Collingwood squad when there's stuff all difference between the Magpies and the Hawks age wise.

The rare occasions that we've seen the top Hawthorn side in action in recent years have been the two finals series and the earlier part of 2001 and not surprisingly no one was calling them soft then.

I was also surprised to hear your take on the Richmond spirit. Obviously you've been residing in a parallel universe in recent years, as the Tigers have been questionned on the 'hardness' score more often than anybody during this time. I can remember a depleted Hawthorn unit savaging a full strength Tigers outfit late in 2001 and I've never seen a group of supporters that were so savage about their own side. Their post mortem discussions on the train home focused heavily around the Tigers ongoing lack of ticker in crunch games and the theme was still in evidence last season.

Hawthorn a not a big scalp on present form, but they can certainly look forward to a lot more improvement than the Tigers if fate decides to smile kindly on them. For this reason, I think that the wash-up from Saturday's debacle may still come to hurt the Tigers more than the Hawks in the long run if the final result serves to obfuscate the Tigers clear deficiencies.

I hope you're right about the Tigers, but you say the same things every season. I remember last year you raved about how Greg Stafford was the missing link that would deliver the Tigers to the promised land. Oh well, I guess he was pretty crucial to the outcome on Saturday.

The Tigers will get a better test of where they are at when they play quality opposition over the next fortnight. The Tigers have been routinely exposed in big matches for twenty years, and until they can rectify the problem will always be viewed as suspect by a suspicious public.

CyberKev

 

[CyberKev]

Lord Ted

Always a pleasure to shoot the virtual breeze with a fine upstanding Dragons man...

Re: Tasmania... A Tasmanian based AFL side would certainly be well received and supported, but (alas) has never been seen as a viable corporate option.

Hawthorn has long had a good relationship with the Apple Isle and was quick to exploit this with the decision to play a couple of "home" games there every season. This has been a win-win for both the club (who would otherwise lose money by playing non-VIC sides at the MCG) and football fans in the State and it is pleasing that the arrangement will continue throughout the decade.

St Kilda is now taking up the running by playing games in Tasmania and I think that there is plenty of room for both sides in this regard. If Tasmania can't get its own side then the next best thing must be to get as many AFL games played there as is possible.

The Saints are, if nothing else, always a colourful club. One of my most enduring memories as an AFL fan is of my only ever visit to the infamous Moorabbin ground in 1989. It was a ground that took some getting to by public transport, but there are times when the joy is in the journey and this was one of those occasions. I honestly had no idea where I was going, but when you got of the train at Moorabbin it was no biggie as you simply followed the herds of black, red & white clad tragics until you arrived at the "snake pit".

I'm glad that you're getting something out of my AFL-related posts. Ms Storm has queried my decision to refrain from doing similar RL-related posts, but I think I'll stick to AFL in this regard. I certainly enjoy league and have followed the Dragons avidly for a quarter of a century, but I haven't been immersed in the hard core day-to-day culture of the sport like many other people on here and , as such, lack the capacity for getting suitably in-depth with my analysis of teams and games.

This thread entertains a small following, but -- as I've mentioned previously -- I prefer posting here than on full-on AFL related sites as users there let their emotions and biases run away with them. Its easier to distance yourself from reified biases (not completely though, of course) here than elsewhere, so we'll battle on and see if we can't gradually pull the numbers up.

I must say that it was good to see Craig posting here again (regardless of our differences of opinion)...

That gives us a small but classy core group of: Lord Ted, Ms Storm, Meltiger, MFC, Fat Mike, Eels Fan & Tigertread to build upon. Such is the stuff on which empires are made...

CyberKev